This is a dimensionless plot of cumulative positivity versus tests per million, using data of the second wave. The horizontal x-axis plots tests per million, cumulatively; this is a progressively increasing value, as more people in a state get covered by testing.

As is clearly evident, while Kerala may indeed have conducted a laudable degree of tests per million population, the results have unfortunately been catastrophic, because the testing was neither focused, consistent, or of adequate capacity.

On the contrary, look at Uttar Pradesh, the largest, and one of the least developed, states of the union: the response of the state government there was so focused, so fast, and so consistent, that it actually brought UP’s second wave under firm control, even before Kerala’s Communists had either subdued the first wave, or even started tackling their second wave.

The epidemic in UP was already well in control even before testing crossed the ten per cent mark, whereas in Kerala, the crisis is still raging even though tests per million is nearing the 50 per cent mark.

What these two new plots mean, at the end of the day, is that the epidemic situation in Kerala is far graver than people think. No doubt, there will be apologists who point out that Kerala has increased testing levels in the fortnight, or, that the state is headed for a massive testing drive on 23 July, followed by two days of full lockdown. Others may combine the latest serological surveys with Kerala’s high vaccination rates, to obfuscate the actual situation further, and defend the state government’s performance.

Maybe so, but the fact of the matter is that testing, tracing and isolation are happening in an inefficient, shoddy, haphazard manner; it is nowhere near enough. Besides, strong arguments about sero-surveys and vaccinations rates mean nothing, when people are still dying of the Wuhan virus in such large numbers in Kerala every day.

As Swarajya has been saying for months now, testing levels in Kerala have to be consistently held at a minimum baseline of 1.5 to 1.75 lakh tests a day at least, for the next three weeks, if there is to be any hope of the epidemic being brought under control swiftly.

If not, then the contagion will linger disastrously within the populace, retain the threat of triggering a national third wave, and most fearfully, aggravate the probability of a fresh strain emerging as a new variant of concern. The history of this epidemic teaches us that the more reproductive space we give to this virus, the more virulently it will mutate.

Thus, if the depressing gravity of the public health situation in Kerala, brought out by these new plots, still does not register with Pinarayi Vijayan and his government, then that incapacity to comprehend would inexorably force the central government to step in and take charge soon. The risks of allowing such inadequacies, inconsistencies and incompetence to flounder any longer in Kerala are too great; India cannot afford it.

(All data from Covid19india.org)

Kerala versus Uttar Pradesh

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