Germany's Right-Wing Party AfD Breaks Through The 'Centrist' Firewall — What It Means

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its first significant electoral victory in a German state election, marking a major milestone for the party 11 years after its creation. This event is seen as a political earthquake in Germany, reflecting the increasing vulnerability of centrist parties across Europe.

According to projections from Sunday (1 September), the AfD led in Thuringia and was a close second in Saxony, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition, composed of three centrist parties, suffered heavy losses. The results from these two eastern states, which collectively have a population of just over six million, do not directly impact the balance of power in Berlin but are symbolically significant.

No right-wing party has won a state or national election in Germany since the end of World War II, and the AfD’s rise represents a major shift in the country’s political landscape.

Despite its strong performance, the AfD is unlikely to govern either state. Forming a government would require a coalition with another party, and most other political groups have ruled out collaborating with the AfD. This stance is part of a broader effort by democratic parties to keep the AfD out of power, a strategy that has been effective since the party's inception in 2013.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the election results as "bitter" and "worrying," urging mainstream parties to continue excluding "right-wing extremists" from power. While the AfD has previously secured some local government positions, it has never participated in a state government.

The results in Thuringia and Saxony, where Scholz’s federal government partners scored in the single digits, highlight the challenges facing centrist parties in the lead-up to Germany’s next general election, which is scheduled for next year.

The rise of the AfD has been anticipated for months, and despite efforts from the centrist parties, they were unable to reverse the trend. The high voter turnout in both states, at approximately 74 per cent, underscores the electorate’s engagement with these issues.

The AfD’s strong showing has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, further destabilising a landscape already grappling with economic stagnation, inflation, rising immigration, and security concerns.

In addition to the AfD, the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), named after its left-wing but socially conservative leader, also made significant gains. The BSW’s platform, which includes higher taxes on the wealthy, stricter immigration policies, and an end to military support for Ukraine, resonated with many voters in the east. The party secured 11.8 per cent of the vote in Saxony and 15.8 per cent in Thuringia, according to provisional results, making it a potential kingmaker in coalition talks.

The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) also performed well, particularly in Saxony, where it won about 32 per cent of the vote, maintaining its position as the leading party in the state. This result boosts the prospects of CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is positioning himself as a challenger to Scholz in the upcoming national election.

However, the overall political landscape in Germany is becoming increasingly fragmented, with populist parties on both the right and left gaining ground but remaining largely isolated by the establishment.

The AfD’s electoral success is part of a broader trend across Europe, where centrist parties are struggling to maintain stable governments amid the rise of populist movements.

In Germany, the government coalition led by Scholz has faced mounting criticism for its handling of economic issues, immigration, and the war in Ukraine. The growing popularity of the AfD reflects public dissatisfaction with the government’s response to these challenges.

The AfD is expected to continue its momentum in Brandenburg, another eastern German state, where it is predicted to finish first in the upcoming election on 22 September. However, the party remains weaker at the national level, where it currently polls around 16 per cent, partly due to a series of scandals.

Despite being out of power, the AfD is already influencing the national political discourse, particularly on issues like immigration and security.

In response to rising concerns about immigration and security, the German government recently introduced a series of new measures. These include reducing welfare benefits for asylum seekers facing deportation to another European Union (EU) country, banning knives at certain public events and train stations, and allowing police to use facial recognition software and artificial intelligence to identify terror suspects.

The government also resumed deportations to Afghanistan, sending 28 convicted criminals back to Kabul on a chartered flight. This was the first such deportation since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan.

Germany recorded 329,035 asylum applications last year, the highest number since the peak of the European refugee crisis in 2016.

As the primary destination for nearly a third of asylum seekers in the EU, Germany’s security agencies are overwhelmed and struggling to vet all arrivals. Young men from countries like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, who make up a significant portion of asylum seekers, often face difficulties finding employment even when their applications are approved and are disproportionately represented in crime statistics. Additionally, those whose asylum requests are denied are rarely deported.

The recent stabbing incident involving Issa al H, a 26-year-old who arrived in Germany in 2022, has further fuelled the debate on immigration. Under EU rules, al H should have been deported back to Bulgaria, the first EU country he entered.

However, German authorities were unable to locate him when they attempted to detain him, and after six months, a legal deadline expired, making Germany responsible for processing his asylum application. This incident has intensified calls for stricter immigration controls and more efficient deportation processes.

The AfD's rise and the struggles of Germany's centrist parties are part of a bigger trend spreading across Europe, where populist movements are shaking things up in politics.

As Germany heads toward its next national election, its political future looks uncertain. Centrist parties are feeling the heat from both the right and the left, and it’s anyone’s guess how things will play out.