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Modi’s BJP Set For Sixth Consecutive Win In Gujarat, Congress Leadership Unconvincing: CLSA’s Chris Wood
Christopher Wood, Managing Director of CLSA in Gurgaon, India. (Ramesh Pathania/Mint via Getty Images)
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set for a sixth consecutive win in the upcoming assembly election in Gujarat, although the majority it enjoys is likely to decline, CLAS managing director Christopher Wood has said in his weekly newsletter, Greed & Fear report.
“Fighting the campaign on the national issues such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetisation” will prove to be a strategic blunder for the Congress, the top equity strategist noted in his report, saying Modi remains popular in the country despite the short-term disruption caused by GST and demonetisation.
“GREED & fear suspects Gujaratis are probably proud of the fact that their former chief minister is now prime minister," he has said, adding the Congress remains under the “still unconvincing leadership of Rahul Gandhi”.
Wood expects Modi to focus on generating jobs ahead of the April-May 2019 general election, although he questions the extent of the lack of employment generation given the inadequacy of employment data.
Wood identifies housing, road building and textiles as the three main sectors where Modi hopes to generate job growth in the next 18 months. The implementation of affordable housing policy will be "by far the most important" driver of job growth, but the impact of this programme will not be immediate, the report notes.
The report predicts more rate cuts in India next year, saying the 10-year government bond has now become an interesting investment again after its recent sell-off.
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