Trump Ahead Of Clinton In Latest Polls: Here’s What His Path To Presidency Looks Like 

The idea of President Donald Trump doesn’t sound as improbable today as it did a week ago. In fact, if the latest opinion polls are to be believed, he is well on his way to becoming the next occupant of the White House at 1600, Pennsylvania Avenue.

Two latest national polls show Trump leading Clinton. ABC/Washington Post has Trump edging her by one point while another poll by LA Times/USC shows Trump ahead by four points. One week ago, Trump was 12 points behind Hillary in a ABC poll. How did he close such an unassailable lead? Well, thank FBI Director James Comey.

On 28 October, the FBI Director wrote a letter informing the Congress that the agency found some emails pertinent to the closed investigation into Clinton’s private server on the devices seized from Clinton’s close aide Huma Abedin’s estranged husband, Anthony Weiner, who is under FBI investigation for sending illicit text messages to a 15-year-old girl. The FBI decided to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s emails. This must have put grave doubts in the minds of voters, further eroding Clinton’s credibility. She is already perceived by many voters to be corrupt.

This interesting turn of events may have shifted the momentum in Trump’s favour. This does not mean he is a shoo-in for the presidency, but it does indicate the possibility of a shift in voter preferences just a week before polling day.

The US President is elected not by a direct popular vote, but by an electoral college based on results in 50 states. Does Trump have a likely path to the presidency through the electoral college? The latest polls show he does.

There are 10 swing states that will decide this election: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina. Swing states refer to the states which can ‘swing’ either for a Republican or a Democratic candidate.

As of today (2 November), Trump is winning Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Iowa. (in the polls conducted after ‘Comey surprise’, i.e. post 28 October)

Basically, Trump has gained all the states he had lost to Clinton after his audiotape boast about “grabbing women” by their genitals was released in early October. As this Swarajya column had noted then, Trump was at that time just one swing state away from becoming the next President. The same can be said today.

So, which state is likely to put him over the top? Well, two come to mind: Colorado and New Hampshire. According to the latest poll in Colorado conducted yesterday, Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point. In New Hampshire, she is ahead by seven points but it’s not clear whether the poll captured the ‘Comey surprise’.

So, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that for Trump, the road to the White House goes through Colorado.

Here’s how the electoral map would look if he wins this state. One needs 270 votes to become President.

And a Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win.

So, all the Americans who said they would leave the country if Donald Trump is elected President should seriously start making their plans, pack their bags and have their visas ready. Because a Trump presidency is no longer an improbable scenario.