Ten Seats That BJP Is Set To Snatch From TMC: Here's All About It

Meiteis to vote for the first time in 30 years!

Tens of thousands of Meiteis driven away from Moreh, Churachandpur and other places in the Kuki-dominated hill districts of Manipur live in filthy relief camps.

Amidst this gloom, there is a bit of excitement over getting to exercise their franchise for the first time ever. Kukis did not allow Meiteis to vote for the past 30 years.

Now that Kukis don’t control their destinies, they will cast their votes for the first time ever. Meiteis, in abject conditions, don’t know when they can go back to their homes.

Even as their homes in Moreh and Churachandpur were looted, set on fire, and the charred remains flattened by Kuki mobs. Khuraijam Khamba (44) had a transport business. He had 2 houses, 2 shops, & a godown.

In May ‘23, Kuki militants started attacking Meiteis & their properties. Khamba & his family were rescued by Assam Rifles and police. Khamba has never seen the inside of a polling booth.

He has never voted in any election — panchayat, assembly, Lok Sabha. “The Kukis never allowed us to vote. We don’t know how to vote,” he said.

Every election, Kuki militants would collect their voter IDs few days before polling and return them after the elections.

Kukis impersonated Meiteis and cast their votes. Chalamba Singh (40) recounts, “they (Kukis) used to tell us we cannot vote as we lived in Kuki-majority area. Here only Kukis had the right to vote.”

Defiance against blatant rigging meant certain death A Meitei lady tried to defy the Kukis in 2004 and refused to hand over her voter ID to Kukis.

Two nights before polls, her shop was looted and house firebombed. She sustained severe burns and even now Kukis have unofficially put a price on her head. But freedom existed before Kukis came!

When Kukis were a minority, all — Meitei, Nagas, Tamils, Marwaris, Nepalis, Bengalis, Biharis — communities lived in harmony. Things changed when Kukis settled in Moreh in large numbers after the Kuki-Naga conflict of early 1990s.

Brahmin v. Brahmin In A Thakur Dominated Garhwal Seat Of Uttarakhand!

BJP's Anil Baluni and Congress' Ganesh Godiyal are gearing up for a high-stakes battle Uttarakhand's Garhwal LS seat.

BJP has dominated the state’s all 5 seats since 2014, with party garnering 68% vote share in Garhwal, highest among these seats.

In 2019, BJP's Tirath Singh Rawat's defeated Congress’ Manish Khanduri by over 3 lakh votes in Garhwal.

This time both parties have fielded new candidates. In 2024, Garhwal seat - comprising 5 districts & 14 assembly segments - will witness a Brahmin versus Brahmin contest in a Thakur-majority electorate.

Despite the Thakurs dominating with 45% population share, election results have often swayed in favour of Brahmin candidates.

Even with Brahmins at 30%, seven Brahmins have won in Garhwal since 1991.

BJP’s Anil Baluni

A Rajya Sabha MP and national media in-charge, Baluni enjoys strong party backing.

Baluni says 2024 election stands out due to the high level of public engagement, noting that upon spotting the BJP's flag, people spontaneously start chanting ‘Modi-Modi’. Baluni’s contributions include connectivity and development projects in the region.

Congress’ Ganesh Godiyal Godiyal, former President of Pradesh Congress Committee and 2-time MLA, brings along his political experience & grassroots connect.

However, he lost 2 consecutive assembly polls from Srinagar in 2017 & 2022 to BJP's Dhan Singh Rawat. BJP's record of winning 5 out of last 7 elections in Garhwal and the caste dynamics here indicate strong leaning towards BJP.

Issues like local governance, employment, migration, and welfare of armed forces personnel remain focal points in the candidates' campaigns.

The 10 Seats For BJP’s Rise In Bengal!

BJP has identified 10 key seats in Bengal that it can add to its 2019 tally of 18 to achieve its target of 370 seats in 2024 LS polls.

The 10 seats: Arambagh, Bardhaman Purba, Birbhum, Bolpur, Dum Dum, Kanthi, Krishnanagar, Malda Dakshin, Sreerampur, and Tamluk.

Of these 10, BJP lost 7 by less than 1 lakh votes. In a Lok Sabha election, a victory margin of less than 1 lakh is considered narrow, particularly in seats with very high population density as in Bengal.

In the case of an increased voter turnout in a multi-cornered contest, this margin can be considered even more thin and insecure.

Additionally, BJP has increased its vote share between 14-32% in all these seven seats. In the remaining three - Bolpur, Kanthi, Tamluk - TMC is on the backfoot.

In Bolpur LS seat in Birbhum, the TMC district unit is demoralised due to the arrest of its strongman, Anubrata Mondal, in connection with the cattle-smuggling and illegal mining scam.

As for Kanthi and Tamluk, these are the strongholds of the Adhikari family (Suvendu Adhikari, his brothers, and his father Sisir) which is now firmly with the BJP. Suvendu Adhikari told Swarajya, “we will definitely win both these seats this time. That’s my personal guarantee”.

Other challenges for TMC include: demographic changes favoring BJP, anti-incumbency, arrest of key TMC leaders due to scams, and organisational weakness due to growing dissatisfaction among local leaders and cadres.

As for BJP, a multi-cornered contest in seats like Malda Dakshin will result in a division of Muslim vote between the TMC and Congress, thus benefiting the BJP by consolidation of Hindu vote.