Congress-JD(S) Alliance: If Deve Gowda Has His Way, It’s Advantage BJP In Karnataka 

The Indian political cycle has entered the home stretch of the Lok Sabha election activities with the election likely to be announced any time now. Most of major political state level alliances have either been already stitched or are being fine tuned before the official announcements. Intriguingly, the alliance between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) in the state of Karnataka, which sends the second highest number of Lok Sabha Members of Parliament (MP) among the southern Indian states, is yet to fructify.

The alliance should have been obvious given that the Congress and the JD(S) share power in the state. Indeed, in last few days, discussions on the alliance have picked up. Congress President Rahul Gandhi visited the JD (S) chief H D Devegowda recently. On the face of it, the constant bickering between the partners who run a coalition government in Karnataka may be have been among the reasons for the delay in formalisation of the Lok Sabha alliance.

However, in reality, the reason for this delay may be more rooted in the unique electoral calculus of Karnataka.

The May 2018 state elections in Karnataka were a triangular contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress and the JD(S). While the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it fell short of majority. This resulted in the Congress and the JD(S) coming together and forming a coalition government led by H D Kumaraswamy.

If the results of these assembly elections are rolled up to Lok Sabha constituency level for the both the alliance cases i.e. the Congress and the JD(S) fighting separately and the Congress - JD(S) alliance fighting with perfect vote transfer, the results in the below table emerges:

The data may indicate that there is a politically compelling case for alliance between the Congress and the JD(S). But a more detailed analysis of election results from the past Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections shows that electoral calculus for such an alliance is more complicated and challenging.

Firstly , as can be seen from trends of results since 2004, the JD(S) tends to get significantly lower votes in Lok Sabha elections vis-a-vis Assembly elections. Its vote share reduced by 5.4 and 9.1 percentage points in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections in comparison to the 2008 and 2013 Assembly elections respectively.

In the 2004 elections, the split voting pattern for JD(S) did not play out probably because both the Assembly and Lok Sabha election were conducted concurrently. The Assembly elections are more contextually suited to a regional party like JD(S) as it has a better shot at power. A similar trend of split performance between Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha is witnessed in performance of several other regional/sub regional parties in the country.

Secondly, the BJP, conversely to the JD(S), performs significantly better in Lok Sabha elections in comparison to Vidhan Sabha elections. The BJP’s vote share increased by 6.5, 7.8 and 13.7 percentage points in the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections as compared to the 2004, 2008 and 2013 Assembly elections, respectively.

The Congress vote share demonstrates least variation between the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha elections. It appears that many voters who may be voting for JD(S) during Assembly elections switch their vote to BJP in the Lok Sabha to make their vote count.

Given the above distinct split voting pattern between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, psephologically, the 2014 Lok Sabha results provides better base for analysing impact of seat sharing between Congress and JD(S) rather than the 2018 Assembly election results.

The 2014 Lok Sabha Election Analysis

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections when analysed by placing each of the three party’s performance by first, second, or third positions secured throws up some interesting insights.

The above table shows the geographically limited and concentrated the presence of the JD(S) is in the Lok Sabha elections.

Out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats, the JD(S) was winner or stood second in only 3 seats (winner – Mandya, Hasan, second – Kolar). In fact, an even more granular analysis shows that the average vote share of the JD(S) in the 25 seats where it is neither a winner nor in second position, is less than 7 per cent.

This restricted presence of the JD(S) in Lok Sabha elections is not unique to 2014 elections. It has never secured more than 3 seats in any of the 3 Lok Sabha elections it has contested since its birth. Besides, with the limitation in areas of influence of the JD(S), the alliance arithmetic is further complicated by the geographically overlapping nature of the JD(S) strong areas with that of the Congresss. The Congress was its main competitor in each of the 3 seats where the JD(S) was in the top two positions.

The overlapping nature of electoral influence also extends to medium level influence seats of JD(S). For instance, the Congress was the winner in five of the six seats, where the JD(S) has secured more than 15 per cent voters share but did not stand in top two. Despite the possibility that the JD(S) being in power in state may be able to garner somewhat higher votes this time in the Lok Sabha than it usually does, the overlap in stronghold areas between the Congress and the JD(S) means that alliance adds little additional arithmetic punch in taking on the BJP.

The numbers clearly suggest that on the basis of its electoral strength and limited spread, the JD(S) can hardly justify a claim on more than 4 or 5 Lok Sabha seats in alliance talks with the Congress.

In the past, the JD(S) has managed to leverage its marginal presence effectively to win a disproportionate share of political spoils. JD(S) has never secured more than 59 seats in a house of 225 Assembly seats in any of the 5 Assembly elections it has contested. Yet, it has managed to secure for itself, the Chief Minister or the Deputy Chief Minister post in 3 separate governments. H D Kumaraswamy was deputy chief minister in the Congress-led Dharam Singh Government in 2004. He then became the chief minister in 2006 in alliance with the BJP. Now, he is again the chief minister in coalition with the Congress.

Media reports suggest that the JD(S) had put on table a list of 12 seats that it wants to contest in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. These seats reportedly were Mandya, Hassan, Bengaluru North, Mysuru, Chikkaballapur, Tumkuru, Chitradurga, Raichur, Bidar, Bijapur, Uttara Kannada and Shimoga.  Four of these seats - Chikkaballapur, Tumkur, Chitradurga, and Raichur - are presently held by the Congress.

In the event of an alliance between the Congress and the JD(S), with the latter getting 10 odd seats, the BJP would relish the prospect of competing more seats on a one on one basis with relatively weaker JD(S) in many of constituencies. In some of the seats that the JD(S) may get to contest in alliance, the strong presence of the Congress may actually mean the Congress aspirant for that seat fighting as an independent or even switching over to the BJP.

Recently, Umesh Jadhav, the Congress MLA from Chincholi quit the party and joined the BJP. An influential leader of the lambani tribal community, Jadhav may take on the veteran Congress leader, leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party, and two-time sitting Member of Parliament, Mallikarjun Kharge in the Kalaburagi Lok Sabha seat.

Another interesting case is that of Mandya. A seat presently held by the JD(S) but traditionally also a strong Congress base, the BJP was a distant third in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2018 by-polls, the BJP added 20 percentage points to its vote share, losing to the JD(S) candidate. Now, Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumar is slated to fight on this seat on behalf of the JD(S) but former Congress Member of Parliament and cine star Ambareesh’s widow Sumalatha has been mounting a claim to fight on this seat on behalf of the Congress. If the Congress concedes this seat to the JD(S), she will in all likelihood contest as an independent candidate. Such local conflicts may benefit the BJP.

The number and the incumbent nature of seats conceded by Congress for the sake of alliance formation in Karnataka will also test the bar of the Congress willingness and flexibility to cede political turf with potentially long term impact on its own base. With this strategy, the Congress runs the risk of Karnataka becoming another Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, the Congress has ceded significant political space to the Sharad Pawar led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) over the last two decades. The NCP, originally strong only in a few areas of western Maharashtra, has now become an equal alliance partner of the Congress in the state.

The BJP will be watching the alliance talks with glee. If the JD(S) indeed manages to get anything more than 4 seats in the alliance with the Congress, the BJP Karnataka offices will likely have several visitors eyeing for a last minute switch-and-contest request.