In Numbers: BJP Likely To Clean Sweep Gujarat Even If Congress-AAP Ally For Lok Sabha Polls

There is a very high probability that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may sweep all 26 parliamentary seats in Gujarat this summer. If they do, it would be a record hattrick unparalleled in Indian electoral history.

However, the party and its supporters should not take the state for granted, especially when the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are planning to form an alliance in Gujarat. Seat-sharing talks are actively on between the two opposition parties.

The AAP is a recent entrant to Gujarat politics. It won five seats and 13 per cent of the vote in the assembly elections of December 2022. It also spoiled the Congress party’s chances in over two dozen seats and made a fair splash in the tribal belt.

Now, the BJP has traditionally enjoyed a 10-20 per cent positive vote swing during Lok Sabha elections, above what it gets in provincial elections, since Narendra Modi went to Delhi. Nonetheless, it is important to try and analyse the possible impact of an AAP-Congress alliance, since no metric must be left to chance.

To this end, an analysis has been conducted, comparing the 2019 general elections with the 2022 assembly elections. This approach captures the advent of the AAP, and serves as a sort of worst-case scenario for the BJP.

The methodology adopted is straightforward: the results of the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections were totalled up to Lok Sabha seats; every parliamentary constituency in the state comprises of seven assembly segments. These were then compared with the results of 2019.

Here is a summary of the computations:

We see that the BJP’s vote share went down by 10 per cent between 2019 and 2022. Roughly 7 per cent went to the AAP, and 3 per cent to ‘Others’. The Congress lost 6 per cent to the AAP.

The net result remains largely the same, with the BJP repeating its sweep of 2019 in 2022, and being pushed to the wall in only two Lok Sabha seats even if the Congress and the AAP are allied. The two seats are Patan in north Gujarat, and Junagadh in Saurashtra.

However, a detailed seat-wise analysis shows that even these two seats may not bring cheer to a Congress-AAP combine (even if they do get their seat-sharing right), since the BJP does better in general elections than provincial ones.

At least 2-3 per cent of the ‘Others’ vote shifts to the BJP in general elections, plus at least as much from the established opposition. Consequently, even if the BJP’s vote share declines by 5-10 per cent from 2019 to 2024, it would still not be enough for the BJP to lose a seat in Gujarat because its victory margins are so large.

Below is a graphical description of the shift in the BJP’s vote share from 2019 to 2022, plotted against its 2022 victory margin (vertical y-axis).

In 2022, aggregating results to parliamentary seats, the closest a disunited opposition came to rocking the BJP’s boat was in Patan, where the BJP’s victory margin was less than 0.1 per cent. In most other seats, the BJP’s victory margins were so large that they would have easily staved off a drubbing, even if the index of opposition unity had been 100 per cent.

Analysis also reveals that even in Patan and Junagadh, even if the combined 2022 vote share of Congress-AAP is more than the BJP’s, the margins are very small. They would be reversed in the BJP’s favour if (when) voting patterns change in 2024.

Second, an AAP-Congress alliance is likely to benefit only the former. AAP got more votes than the Congress in four seats: Jamnagar, Dahod and Bardoli (both tribal seats), and Surat. The inference is that an AAP-Congress partnership would only assist the AAP in further consolidating its position in such areas, at the cost of the Congress.

Third, in 2019, the BJP’s 2019 victory margin alone was greater than the Congress’ vote share in ten parliamentary seats. In 2022, even if we combine the Congress and AAP vote shares, the BJP still managed to do the same in four seats. This reflects the BJP’s nigh invincibility in Gujarat.

Thus, in conclusion, it appears that the BJP is set to sweep Gujarat for a third time in the forthcoming general elections. Where does that leave the Congress?

If the Congress allies with the AAP in Gujarat, it will induce a counter-consolidation in favour of the BJP (over and above the positive swing the BJP is expected to enjoy in a general election), and the AAP will benefit at the cost of the Congress. 

Is the Congress leadership ignorant of this eventuality, or are they so desperate for a leg up that they will do so even by shooting themselves in the other foot they’re standing on?