[Live] BJP Wave In Uttar Pradesh, Congress Takes Punjab

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02:15 PM IST: One reason AAP lost Punjab:

It is now a well-known secret that AAP wsa happy to hobnob with Sikh/Khalistani radicals to gain traction in Punjab. While these seems to have helped them in some pockets, the vast majority of Punjab is naturally jittery about re-opening old wounds. It is now fine for AAP supporters to realise that they back, has played a very dangerous game in Punjab and can never claim moral high ground.

Journalist Shekhar Gupta seems it up quite succinctly in one tweet.

Have UP and Uttarakhand settled the debate that parties must announce a CM candidate before every state election?

13:55 PM IST: Manipur to have a BJP government?

BJP may ultimately form the government in Manipur with help from the NPF and other Independents from the Naga and Kuki inhabited hills of Manipur.

Incumbent Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh and his Congress party have clearly failed to reap the dividends from the crippling blockade imposed by the Nagas.

They (Ibobi and the Congress) had hoped that the Naga blockade would turn the majority Meitei community towards the Congress.

13:37 PM IST: BREAKING - Mayawati alleges BJP tampered with Electronic Voting Machines.

13:36 PM IST: Did BJP's stance on triple talaq make an impact amongst Muslim women?

Throughout the seven stages of elections when we were talking to people on the ground in UP, we were getting reports that some Muslim women are voting for the BJP, primarily due to its stance on triple talaq. Amongst the community, the issue seems to have been more important than initially assumed.

The clerics too seem to have a got a wind of this, and there were reports that a particular seat in Awadh (phase 3), a fatwa was issued prohibiting Muslim women below 35 years of age from voting.

While there is no empirical evidence yet of Muslim women voting for the BJP, the party's victory in seats like Deoband make the prospect of it believable.

01:17 PM: Was Mayawati's Dalit-Muslim alliance just a dream?

Seems like it, and the numbers are clearly saying so.

In many inter-religious conflicts and feuds in UP, at the precise point of conflict, it is Dalits facing the brunt. In such a context, the wisdom of the BSP to go for a pronounced Muslim outreach was always in question. Likely that Muslims didn't turn to it en masse, and largely stayed with the SP. And secondly, due to her proactive Muslim outreach, even her Dalit votebank seems to have gone jittery.

12:50 PM: How does this sound for for 2019?

Compared to 2014 vote share, the BSP has gained 2.2% of votes. However, compared to the 2012 vote share, it has dropped 3%. Regardless of the precise numbers two things are certain for the BSP.

1. It is holding on to its core vote bank of Jatav Dalits

2. It is not able to add incremental vote to it that will make it cross the threshold beyond which votes translate into seats. In fact, this is the fourth election after 2007 where it has failed to do so.

In such a scenario, a SP-BSP-Congress alliance seems a possibility for 2019.

Here's why:

1. Mayawati knows that she needs incremental votes. Her core votebank is just not enough

2. 2014 saw it, and after today, there is a real possibility of even a Jatav shift to the BJP.

3. If Narendra Modi has to be stopped in 2019, he has to be stopped in UP. If BJP repeats 2014 and 2017 in 2019, Modi is prime minister for another five years.

Clearly, while the today's counting has given some loud answers, some questions for the future have also arisen

12:33 PM IST: BJP Leads in 48/67 Seats In Phase 2

The BJP scored 108/140 in the first two rounds of voting in Uttar Pradesh. This essentially means that from the third phase onwards, the SP-Congress alliance had to sweep the remaining rounds to remain in contention. The alliance then, had lost the election before it had even reached round 3.

12:03 PM: Goa CM Laxmikant Parsekar loses to Congress's Dayanand Sopte in Mandrem.

12:00 PM IST: Omar Abdullah Says Parties Must Now Focus On 2024 Instead Of 2019

Omar Abdullah has claimed that there is no leader, who has a pan India appeal like Narendra Modi. He has recommended that parties should not even focus on the 2019 General Elections and look forward to putting up a fight in 2024. He has also recommended that, instead of criticising the Prime Minister, the voters need to be given another alternative positive agenda.

11:53 AM IST: How the media got it wrong on BJP's performance in Phase 1

The BJP is now leading in 61 out of the 73 seats that went to polls in Phase 1 in Uttar Pradesh. The media line until yesterday was that areas in Phase 1 and Phase 2 included Western UP and other regions where significant Jat population exists.

It was said that the Jats badly resented the BJP for reasons including BJP's stance on reservations etc. However, it turns out the BJP has done exceedingly well in Phase 1. The media line seems to have been badly ill-informed.

11:45 AM IST: BJP holds on to 299+ seats in UP

Nearly four hours after counting started we find the BJP holding on to nearly 300 seats out of the 403.

10:49 AM IST: AAP placed third by vote-share in Punjab

Going by Election Commission numbers it appears the BJP-SAD combine haven't done that bad. While many experts had projected an AAP win and a washout for BJP-SAD it turns out AAP's voteshare is actually less than that of BJP-SAD combine.

10:35 AM IST; The consolidation In UP

Former UP president, Laxmikant Bajpai was expected to lose from Meerut this time. In previous elections, he was beneficiary of a Hindu consolidation on the Meerut seat. This time, Hindu vote was almost certain to be divided amongst BSP and BJP. It is indicative of the BJP wave in 2017, that even with all odds stacked against them, they are leading in Meerut

10:25 AM IST: BJP leading in 5 out of 6 seats in Raebareli

Raebareli is the Lok Sabha constituency of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

10:25 AM IST: BJP Leads Cross 300 In UP, According To ETV

10:21 AM IST: Mayawati May Not Be Able To Retain Her Rajya Sabha Seat

This looks particularly bad for Mayawati. She was elected to the Rajya Sabha in 2012 which means her seat will be up for the taking in 2018.

10:19 AM IST: Irom Sharmila defeated

10:03 AM IST: Manipur has slipped out of Congress’ hand

According to ECI numbers as of now the score is BJP at 7 and Congress at 3. The voteshare difference is around 8%.

09:58 AM IST: This is better than 1991 for the BJP

Last time the BJP achieved these numbers in UP, Hindutva politics was at the centre of national discourse. The BJP's victory in 1991 (221 seats) only tilted the narrative further.

With the BJP back to power in UP on the back of a large spectrum of Hindu votes and even polarisation, what effect will this verdict have on national politics?

09:56 AM IST: BJP is leading in all eight seats in Varanasi.

09:46 AM IST: Shivpal Yadav is losing?

Jaswantnagar: Shivpal Yadav of the SP is trailing to Manish Yadav of the BJP. This was a bitterly fought election, and had become a symbol of the feud between the Yadavs in Jaswantnagar.

One community of the Yadavs was represented by Shivpal and the other by Manish Yadav. So, in the two seats that Mulayam Singh campaigned, the SP, for the moment, is trailing.

09:43 AM IST: BJP clocking nearly 40% vote share in Uttar Pradesh

They’re scoring 17% more vote-share than the next largest party in the state (BSP - 22.4%).

09:34 AM IST: Four Key Takeaways From UP Results So Far

Some things can be said increasing surety now:

1. The BJP's non-Yadav OBC outreach seems to have clearly worked. The numbers coming would not have been possible unless there was a consolidation of the OBCs behind the BJP

2. Even though seat by seat analysis is not yet conclusive, Mayawati's Muslim outreach seems to have fallen flat. In case it had worked, the BSP would not be trailing as poorly as it is.

3. Akhilesh Yadav's 'kaam bolta hai' may have backfired in many regions where it may have seemed far removed from reality.

4. Demonetisation, rather than damaging the BJP, seems to have given it a boost. This seems particularly the case in the seats of Purvanchal, i.e. eastern Uttar Pradesh

09:30 AM IST: Congress will most likely form the next government in Punjab.

This will probably warm the cockles of BJP fans - the AAP is definitely not forming the government in Punjab.

09:25 AM: Punjab Update

AAP is not even sweeping Malwa which was expected. Big blow to Arvind Kejriwal.

09:21 AM IST: BJP Leads Cross half-way mark in UP

Leads from 100 seats are yet to come in. But the BJP is already leading in 205+ seats.

09:20 AM: BJP’s return to Central UP

Trends from Lucknow and Kanpur indicate that the BJP is back to being the leading party of the two cities of central UP as it was before the 2012 elections

09:13 AM: Jats aren't hurting BJP in UP. They seem to have, in fact, backed it.

Mriganka Singh is still leading from Kairana. This is indicative of a macro and micro development.

Macro: The Jats did not desert the BJP in the numbers the media said it did.

Micro: The Lok Dal candidate, a relative of Mriganka Singh, was supposed to eat into the BJP's chunk. That too has apparently not happened. It is likely that superior organisation skills of the BJP are coming to her rescue

09:10 AM IST: Uttarakhand appears to be safely pocketed by the BJP.

The BJP is now leading in 35 seats out of a total 70 seats in Uttarakhand. The tickers are moving fast so this number may be outdated by the time you see this.

09:10 AM IST: BJP Leads Cross 150 In Uttar Pradesh

It looks like a sweep now.

09:02 AM IST: A mistake in Varanasi South?

Varanasi South, Congress leading. Here the BJP had denied a ticket to 7-time MLA Shyam Deo Roychowdhury and had given it to Neelkanth Tiwari instead.

09:00 AM IST: BJP Leads Have Now Crossed 120!

This clearly looks like a wave. With 160+ leads known the BJP is leading in 120.

08:52 AM IST: First Updates On Punjab

Numbers from Punjab are a little delayed but even with these few numbers its easy to see the SAD-BJP combine going nowhere today. Congress seems to pushing ahead.

08:43 AM IST: The Jat Vote Factor

Early trends from western UP suggest that Jat vote attrition for BJP may not have been as bad as was feared.

Meanwhile, Phulpur in Allahabad, BJP leads. Allahabad is the Lok Sabha constituency of BJP UP president KP Maurya and was also the site of a large road show by both Amit Shah and Rahul-Akhilesh

08:30 AM IST: First Leads In UP

It looks like the BJP is taking the lead. Please note: these are only early leads with largely postal ballots.

VIP Constituencies: Garima Singh of BJP is leading in Amethi. She is the first wife of Sanjay Singh, Congress Rajya Sabha MP

08:25 AM IST: Good morning!

Good morning and welcome to the Swarajya live blog for Counting Day 2017! Here, we'd be providing you live updates and analysis as trends come in.

So let us start with where each of the five states stand before counting begins:

Uttar Pradesh: Currently under SP rule. Here, the BJP is hoping to return to power after 2002. The highest seats the BJP won in the state was 221 in an undivided UP in 1991. The highest voteshare which the party won was 33.3% in 1993. Both these elections were fought under Kalyan Singh.

The BSP's peak was in 2007 when it won 206 seats with 30.4% voteshare on the back of a Dalit-Brahmin alliance

The SP's peak was in 2012 where it garnered 224 seats with only 29.2% voteshare. Uttar Pradesh assembly has 403 seats, and is the largest in the country new messages

Punjab: In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is hoping to expand its footprint out of Delhi, while the Congress wishes to displace the Akalis who have been in power since 2007. Punjab went to polls to elect its assembly which has 117 members

Good Evening, Readers!

We at Swarajya will be bringing you the results of #Elections2017 – elections to the Legislative Assemblies or Vidhan Sabhas of the five states that went to polls in the last two months: Goa, Punjab, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.

We will start at 8.30am tomorrow (11 March). So bookmark this link and head back here on time (or before!) to catch up on all the news and views and, of course, know the results.

Until then, you can read our Editorial Director R Jagannathan’s analysis of yesterday’s exit polls: UP Shows Gandhi Dynasty The Door, Opens It Wide For BJP; 10 Takeouts From Exit Polls

If you enjoyed reading that one, here’s another analysis to get you going:

Update From Epicentre: What Is Likely To Happen In The Seven Seats In Varanasi

Understanding Uttar Pradesh politics requires a clear grasp of the caste equations at play in the state. Here’s an analysis of the caste jigsaw:

Decoded: UP’s Vastly Complex Caste Jigsaw