Nagaon: This Microcosm Of Assam Is Fighting Hard To Retain Its Identity

Nagaon, if one looks at the map of Assam, lies in the heart of the state. Aptly, it is also the microcosm of Assam as far as demographics is concerned. Muslims, almost all of Bangladeshi origin, form about 35 per cent of the electorate and are seeing a steady increase in their numbers. Hindus are struggling to stem the demographic change that has caused social strife and poses a threat to their religious, cultural and social identity.

The Hindus of Nagaon feel that the only way they can preserve their identity is by voting for the Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP’s Rajen Gohain, who served as junior Railways Minister in the outgoing Modi government, has been representing this prestigious constituency for four consecutive terms since 1999. He has been replaced by Rupak Sharma, the sitting MLA from Nagaon Legislative Assembly segment (a constituent of the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat), but the battle for the BJP is a tough one this time.

The reasons for the BJP facing a gruelling battle in Nagaon are very much the same as for the party facing tough contests all over the state.

Muslims account for a little over 30 per cent of the electorate of Nagaon (the same percentage in the rest of the state as well), and they have reportedly rallied behind the Congress this time in the absence of a contender from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by the controversial Maulana Badruddin Ajmal.

The BJP alleges that the Congress and the AIUDF, which fought against each other in the past, have reached a secret understanding. The AIUDF has not fielded any candidates in 11 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam and declared it did so in order to prevent a division of Muslim votes. Badruddin, an Islamist who pretends to be secular, has appealed to his co-religionists to vote for the Congress. The Muslim electorate has, thus, rallied behind the Congress, and this poses a tough challenge to the BJP all over the state.

Hindus account for about 70 per cent of the electorate in Nagaon, but are politically fragmented. “The Hindu votes get divided between the Congress, the BJP and some other smaller parties and Independents. The reason the BJP won this constituency since 1999 is that the Bengali Hindus (they form about 25 per cent of the electorate here) have voted almost en masse for the saffron party,” says senior advocate Alok Goswami. And along with the support of a large section of Assamese Hindus and tribal communities like the Tiwas, Misings, Rabhas and Garos, as well as a sprinkling of Marwaris, Biharis and Punjabis, the BJP has sailed through comfortably in 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014. What also worked in the BJP’s favour was the division of Muslim votes between the Congress and AIUDF, as well as some other parties in the past.

“But this time, the Muslim vote has polarised in favour of the Congress. Not just because of the absence of the AIUDF and Ajmal’s appeal to Muslims to vote for the Congress, but also because the Congress has carried out an aggressive campaign painting the BJP as an anti-Muslim and Hindutva party. The Congress played up the Biswanath Chariali incident where a Muslim man was allegedly thrashed and force-fed pork for selling beef last week. The video of the incident that occurred in a Lower Assam district went viral and was widely shared by Congress leaders and activists, who projected the accused as RSS activists. This affected Muslim sentiments and the community has rallied en bloc behind the Congress now,” said Dwipen Gogoi, a college teacher.

The BJP has tried to win over Muslims by getting Muslim scholars--Maulanas--to tour the Muslim-dominated areas of the constituency and canvass for the saffron party. “That strategy was working a little, but this (Biswanath Chariali) incident negated all those efforts,” added Gogoi. The BJP is blaming the Congress for the incident and has alleged that the Congress stage-managed the incident to malign the BJP. But that is not cutting much ice with the Muslims.

However, the BJP can take solace from the fact that the Bengali Hindus remain committed to the party, while the tribal communities--Tiwas, Rabhas, Misings and Boros--who form about 3 per cent of the electorate have also rallied behind the saffron party.

The Hindi-speaking voters (a little over 1 per cent) are also supporting the BJP. But getting the support of a majority of the Assamese Hindus remains a challenge for the party. “For a small section of the Assamese Hindus, the Citizenship Amendment Bill that the BJP is committed to bring in remains an issue. Though the AGP and BJP are allies, not all AGP supporters are expected to vote for the BJP. And the Congress has a committed support base among Assamese Hindus,” said lawyer Goswami.

Nagaon (earlier known as Nowgong) Lok Sabha constituency was a Congress stronghold and had voted for the Congress for six times on a trot since 1951. Dev Kanta Barooah, the president of the Indian National Congress during the dark days of the Emergency, represented this constituency twice. Barooah gained infamy for his sycophantic “India is Indira and Indira is India” remark during the Emergency.

The Asom Gana Parishad’s Muhi Ram Saikia, who was the junior HRD Minister in the Deve Gowda and I K Gujral-led governments, represented this seat in 1984, 1991 and 1996. The Congress wrested this seat back from the AGP in 1998, but the BJP unseated the Congress in 1999 and has retained it since then.

Nagaon has witnessed a huge and illegal influx from Bangladesh since the days of the British.

Nagaon is a very old administrative district created by the British in 1832 after the area was taken away from the Burmese after the Anglo-Burmese War. According to very old records, in 1891, Muslims were under 1 per cent of this district’s population. In 1951, Muslims formed 11 per cent of Nagaon’s population. Today, Muslims constitute nearly 30 per cent of the population. And, thanks to high birth rates, the Muslim population is increasing at an brisk rate here.

It was the British who first brought in Muslim peasants from then East Bengal and settled them in Nagaon (as well as the rest of Assam) to cultivate the vast tracts of fertile lands. Nagaon became the granary of Assam.

After Independence, the illegal influx from East Pakistan and then Bangladesh continued unabated due to open patronage of the Congress which saw the aliens as precious vote banks.

In three of the nine Assembly segments of Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency--Jamunamukh, Laharighat and Raha--Muslims are in an overwhelming majority. They make for 90 per cent of the electorate in Jamunamukh (they were just 21 per cent here during Independence), 78 per cent in Laharighat (as compared to about 15 per cent before 1947) and 51 per cent in Raha (11 per cent in 1947). In Hojai (another Assembly segment) they make for 40 per cent of the electorate and are thus a decisive factor.

Bengali Hindus are concentrated in Lumding, Hojai and Jagiroad Assembly segments. The Dimasas (about 17,000 voters) are concentrated in Hojai while the Tiwas (about 60,000 voters) are concentrated in Morigaon Assembly segment.

The Nagaon Lok Sabha segment comprises nine Assembly segments--Jagiroad, Morigaon, Laharighat, Raha, Nagaon, Bahrampur, Jamunamukh, Hojai and Lumding. Of these, the first three fall in Morigaon district while the last three are in Hojai district. The rest are in Nagaon district. The Morigaon and Hojai districts were carved out of the earlier undivided British-era Nagaon district.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, the Congress won the Laharighat seat, the AIUDF won Jamunamukh and the AGP (supported by the BJP since they had formed an alliance) won Bahrampur. The BJP won the remaining six Assembly seats.

In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP’s Rajen Gohain polled 4.94 lakh votes, almost 1.5 lakh votes more than his nearest Congress rival who polled 3.5 lakh votes. The AIUDF candidate polled 3.14 lakh votes. Many of these AIUDF votes are expected to get transferred to the Congress this time.

Alok Goswami, senior advocate, says that Nagaon’s electorate has increased by more than ten percent since 2014. “This is unnatural and can only be explained by the fact that the Muslim population is increasing by leaps and bounds,” he says. He is correct: about 45 per cent of the first-time voters are Muslims, though they form about 30 per cent of the electorate. What it means is that had the rate of growth of the Muslim population been normal, first-time Muslim voters would also have accounted for 30 per cent of the total first-time voters. But that is not the case, and hence the alarm among the Hindu population about a threat to their culture, identity and existence.

The Bengali Hindus vote en masse for the BJP because they face a direct threat from the increasingly assertive and radical Muslims. Most Muslims here reflect Islamism and conservatism--with beards, skull caps, pyjamas and long kurtas while the womenfolk don black burqas. Many men practise polygamy and have more than four children who do not go to regular schools but are tutored in madrassas run by Wahhabi clerics. Mosques in Nagaon regularly preach hardline and regressive Wahhabi Islam. And this has led to polarisation among and a counter-reaction from Hindus.

“Prior to 1999 (when the BJP won for the first time from Nagaon), our womenfolk used to be routinely harassed by Muslim men in public and there seemed to be a design to this harassment. Their (Muslim) young men used to hang around schools and colleges our girls go to and pursue them determinedly. Hindu women were harassed and teased in public. That is why we supported the BJP. Since 1999, when the BJP won from Nagaon, this sort of harassment has come down. The Congress used to turn a blind eye to crimes committed by Muslims and was sympathetic to them. We will never vote for the Congress,” said Mrinal Kanti Debnath, a railway contractor based at Lumding town and a (Bengali Hindu) community leader.

Rajen Gohain, however, faced huge anti-incumbency. “He did not do anything much for Nagaon in the 20 years that he remained an MP. He could have done a lot. Roads and communication links here are extremely poor and floods are a recurring problem. There are no industries and unemployment is very high,” complains Bedabrata Lahkar, a retired school teacher.

The BJP beat this anti-incumbency by nominating Rupak Sharma, the son of a reputable school teacher. Sharma, 40, is well-known and is liked by everyone, especially because of his deep involvement in social and cultural activities.

The Congress has nominated Pradyut Bordoloi, who was an MLA from Margherita Assembly segment in Upper Assam. Bordoloi was the power minister in the Tarun Gogoi cabinet and his tenure was marked by interminable power cuts all over the state. He is also perceived to be a failure as the state industries minister (under Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi).

That the Congress had to nominate an outsider has not gone down well among many Assamese people in Nagaon. “We had so many stalwarts from the Congress in Nagaon. It is a shame that the Congress could not find anyone suitable from Nagaon and had to import a person from outside as its candidate,” said lawyer Goswami.

Debnath (from Lumding) says that the election this time is a battle by the Hindus for preserving their identity and culture while for the Muslims, it is a battle for Islam. The outcome of this electoral battle, agrees everyone, will determine the fate of Nagaon. Debnath sums it up very succintly: “April 18 (the day of polling) will determine if Nagaon manages to preserve its identity and culture or go the way of districts like Dhubri where Islamists rule the roost”.

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