Trudeau's Reckless Gambit Means The Worst Is Yet To Come For India-Canada Relations

As India-Canada relations rapidly deteriorate, it’s clear that things will likely get worse before there’s any hope for improvement.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, facing plummeting approval ratings and growing domestic challenges, seems to have chosen a risky and confrontational path. At this point, he has very little incentive — if any — to backtrack. It’s a scorched-earth approach.

Trudeau is dealing with a crisis at home. Just over one-third of Canadians currently approve of his government, and with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre gaining ground, Trudeau is desperate to recover lost support. His recent accusations against India over an alleged extraterritorial assassination, while controversial, appear to be a calculated political manoeuvre aimed at boosting his chances of survival.

Trudeau is also under intense scrutiny over allegations that China interfered in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian elections, seemingly to his benefit. Beijing’s actions reportedly favoured a Trudeau minority government by discouraging votes for the Conservative Party, which is seen as anti-China.

In this context, Trudeau’s aggressive stance against India looks like an attempt to deflect attention from the growing criticism of his response to Chinese interference. By pointing the finger at New Delhi, he diverts public focus from the calls for accountability regarding Beijing’s influence on his re-election.

At the same time, Trudeau is contending with pressure from the New Democratic Party (NDP) and its leader, Jagmeet Singh. The NDP, backed by a significant portion of Canada’s Sikh community, plays a crucial role in keeping Trudeau’s minority government afloat. Singh has been vocal on issues related to India, particularly concerning the Sikh separatist movement, and with the NDP’s support at stake, Trudeau cannot afford to appear weak on this issue.

Thus, he has little incentive to back down from his aggressive stance against India, especially when securing the Sikh vote is key to his political future.

Accusing India of involvement in extraterritorial killings gives Trudeau an external enemy to vilify. Politicians often use this tactic to distract from domestic controversies, and for Trudeau, it seems like a last-ditch effort to salvage his career. By creating an issue that his support base can rally around, even the opposition might be forced to align with him.

India had previously cautioned Canada about the presence of anti-India elements, particularly Sikh separatists, but those warnings were largely ignored. Now, by publicly accusing India of orchestrating a killing, Trudeau has backed New Delhi into a corner.

India’s swift response — recalling its top diplomats from Ottawa and expelling six Canadian diplomats — signals its refusal to tolerate such provocations.

Moreover, Canada’s decision to name key Indian figures like Home Minister Amit Shah and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in the accusations marks a serious escalation. It is hard to imagine India allowing even the US to make such accusations against its top leaders, let alone a country of Canada's stature and standing.

India’s firm response is not just about defending itself against baseless accusations. It’s also about setting a precedent. If Canada is allowed to get away with naming senior Indian leaders in such a provocative manner, it could embolden other countries to do the same. By standing firm, India sends a clear message: diplomatic infractions will have consequences.

Domestically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot afford to appear soft in the face of these accusations. With crucial state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand on the horizon, the Modi government must project strength.

Any sign of backing down or failing to respond firmly could be seen as weakness, damaging the government’s image at a politically sensitive time.

The BJP has built its reputation on a platform of national pride and assertive foreign policy. Trudeau’s gamble gives the Modi government an opportunity to bolster its credentials even further on this front.

India-Canada relations are entering a dangerous phase with no clear resolution in sight. The diplomatic fallout from this crisis will likely worsen before any path to de-escalation can be found.