Nepal Polls: China Making Desperate Attempts To Install Puppet Regime, But Unlikely To Succeed

Nepal is headed towards having a hung Parliament. Not even the Nepali Congress-led five party alliance is expected to cross the halfway (138) mark in the 275-member Pratinidhi Sabha, the lower House of Parliament. 

This has opened a window of opportunity for China to try and install a puppet regime in the Himalayan nation. Beijing has deployed its surrogate in Kathmandu--former Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli who is the chair of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) or CPN(UML)--to break the ruling alliance and cobble a new alliance. 

Oli, whose close ties with China are no secret, has been tasked with reaching out to the constituents of the ruling alliance and wooing them. 

Oli called up his bete noire Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the chairperson of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) or the CPN(MC), last week and suggested that they join hands once again to form the next government. 

China had, in 2017, midwifed the merger of the CPN(UML) and the CPN(MC) into the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). But it was an unnatural merger and came apart under the weight of its internal contradictions early last year. 

Beijing had tried its best to prevent the NCP’s breakup and the then Chinese envoy in Kathmandu, Hou Yanqi, met Oli and Dahal many times to effect a patch up. But those efforts failed. 

Once the counting of votes (after the 20 November polls) that started early last week progressed, it became clear that no party or alliance would be able to cross the halfway mark in the Pratinidhi Sabha. That emboldened Beijing to install Oli as Prime Minister with the help of other parties. 

Oli was reportedly asked to reach out to all other parties. His first call was to Dahal. Oli spoke to Dahal for over 15 minutes. Dahal’s personal assistant Ramesh Malla told Swarajya over phone from Kathmandu that Oli was very conciliatory towards Dahal. 

Oli reportedly told Dahal that they should forget their past bitterness and enter into a new partnership. Oli also reportedly alluded to arriving at a sincere and concrete power-sharing arrangement with Dahal. 

The CPN(UML) chairperson said that an understanding between the two communist parties would steer Nepal away from the influence of Western powers, especially the USA. 

But a sceptical Dahal replied that they ought to wait till the final results are out. Dahal has no love lost for Oli who had violated power-sharing arrangements with him (Dahal) twice and denied Dahal the Prime Minister’s post. Dahal looks upon Oli as a power-hungry and duplicitous person who has no qualms about reneging on his promises. 

Oli also deputed his close aides and some top leaders of his party who he trusts to reach out informally to other parties, including the Nepali Congress (NC). One senior leader of the CPN(UML) spoke to a few second rung leaders of the NC who are unhappy over their party’s alliance with the CPN(MC). 

CPN(UML) leaders have also established contact with the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) or CPN(US), a breakaway of the CPN(UML). But the CPN(US) response was not very encouraging. 

Vishnu Rijal, who heads the CPU(UML)’s publicity department, said that “the election results will underline the need for all the communist parties--the CPN(UML), the CPN(MC) and the CPN(US)--to come together and form the government under Oli’s leadership to keep the NC out of power”. 

Rijal contended that the CPN(MC)’s partnership with the NC did not work and the CPN(US) which is part of the ruling alliance is in grave trouble. Hence, he contended, they will be better off as allies of the CPN(UML) under Oli. 

Top CPN(US) leader and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal told Swarajya that while “collaboration between left parties is possible in principle”, his party “will not partner those who promote wrong tendencies under the garb of communism”.

That was a clear allusion to Oli who is widely seen as an unprincipled and power-hungry politician who will sacrifice principles and ethics to come and cling to power. Other CPN(US) leaders said they will prefer collaboration with the NC rather than Oli. 

Oli, in a mischievous bid to create discord and sow the seeds of suspicion within the ruling NC-led alliance, said that he would be willing to join hands with the NC to form the next government in order to keep Dahal out of power. 

“An alliance between the CPN(UML) and the NC will provide much-needed political stability to the country and also stable and good governance. Nepal needs such an alliance. I will even have no problem if the NC does not want to share power with my party and, in that case, will provide outside support to an NC government as long as the CPN(MC) is not part of such a government,” Oli told some close aides. 

But the NC was quick to completely rule out such a possibility. “There is no question of breaking the alliance and betraying the CPN(MC) and joining hands with Oli,” said a senior NC leader. 

In a bid to scotch speculation and nip Oli’s mischief in the bud, Nepali Congress president and incumbent Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba invited Dahal over to ‘Baluwatar’, his official residence in Kathmandu, Saturday (November 26). 

The two had a “long and substantive meeting” and “reiterated their commitment to continue with the alliance”. According to an aide of Deuba, the two leaders had a frank discussion on various post-poll scenarios. 

“A strong point of agreement between the two leaders was on the need to spare the nation from any further machinations and subversion of the Constitution by Oli. They agreed that Oli spells trouble for Nepal and at no cost should Oli be allowed to come anywhere near power,” said a close aide of Deuba. 

While it is still a bit early to predict with any certainty what will unfold once the final results are out, it will be safe to say that Beijing’s bid to install its puppet--Oli--in power is not likely to succeed. 

That’s because Oli is not trusted by other parties, and even by many of his own party colleagues. He is widely perceived to be an unscrupulous person who will do anything to grab power. Oli’s track record that includes his frequent backstabbing of allies and even party colleagues and accumulating all power in his hands is working against him. His twin bids to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections has earned him the label of “subverter of the Constitution”. 

“The point is that no one trusts Oli a bit. All are wary of him and want to keep away from him. He is too wily and slippery for anyone’s comfort,” said a senior NC leader.

Thus, just as China is not trusted by the global community, its protege in Nepal--Oli--is not trusted within the Himalayan nation. And that jeopardises Beijig’s grand project to install a puppet regime headed by Oli in Kathmandu.