The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019 received 37.36 per cent vote share, roughly 6 per cent more than 2014.

This increased the BJP tally to 303 on its own. This was the highest ever seat share received by a political party since 1989.

Congress which was the pole of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was reduced to 44 seats in 2014, and 52 seats in 2019 respectively.

The UPA on 18 July, rebranded itself as INDIA alliance (INDIA stands for Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) of 26 parties, and the NDA displayed it's strength with 38 parties coming together.

Apart from mere numbers there was a significant difference between the two alliances in the run up to 2024 General Election.

On one hand 26 parties were unable to declare a common Prime Ministerial candidate, whereas the first meeting of the enlarged National Democratic Alliance (NDA) saw all the partners unanimously accepting Prime Minister Narendra Modi as their leader.

The message was clear as elections will near it will turn out to be 'Modi vs Who'.

Voters in India post 2014 whether it is a General Election, or a State Election have always voted clarity over confusion. Either they have unanimously voted in a personality, or voted out a leader with a thumping majority.

Wherever the leadership displayed has given signals of confusion, they have only tested electoral defeat. This trend of giving clear mandate has further solidified post 2019.

The same voters voted Naveen Patnaik with 2/3rd majority in 2019 assembly election, and gave BJP more than 40 per cent seats in Odisha in simultaneously held Lok Sabha elections.

This trend is geography agnostic from North to South voters have preferred clear verdicts. This indicates the trend ' floating voters ' have started to reflect in the post 2014 era.

They see the momentum and end up making the winner win with more than expected number, and lose decisively. As these alliances take shape the floating voter will choose between 'No face vs Modi'.

The next logical which should come to your mind is — 'What if there is enough anti incumbency on the ground, and a face is not needed to defeat PM Modi lead BJP'.

This argument is generally given by supporters of opposition parties. Let us test this argument based on some logical facts. Firstly the pole of rebranded UPA alliance that is INDIA alliance the Congress party, is it stronger than 2019, and 2014?

Tacitly all the alliance partners of INDIA alliance have accepted Congress as the leading party, but they are unable to declare Rahul Gandhi as the combined Prime Ministerial candidate to take on PM Narendra Modi.

In both 2019, and 2014 the Congress lost more than 80 per cent seats in direct contest with BJP. In the Hindi heartland belt of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, even after forming a government, BJP under PM Narendra Modi could win 90 per cent of seats in these three states in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

Any rise of Congress party can only be judged from its performance in these three states. Except local anti incumbency on the ground the BJP has won more seats in 2019 with greater margin than 2014.

In the present circumstance it will be very difficult for Congress to reverse this trend. Contrary to popular belief in 2019 74 per cent BJP MP's won with more than 50 per cent vote share. This feat has not been achieved by any political party since 1984.

The essence of the success of INDIA alliance hinges on the success of the Congress party, and ability of the Congress party to shift floating voters towards it. Both in 2014, and in 2019 the Congress pan India received 10 crore 69 lakh, and 11 crore 90 lakh votes.

In quantity terms this is similar to the votes it received in 2009 when it formed the government at Centre. The BJP on the other hand in post 2014 era has only increased its vote share. From receiving just 7.8 crore votes in 2009 to receiving 22.9 crore votes in 2019.

This 'Modi factor' hinges on three pillars — a) Welfarism for the bottom of the pyramid b) Enhancing India's global prestige c) Civilisational Renaissance.

At present none of these pillars of ' Modi factor' on ground is seeing any major shake up

It is also important to observe the difference in the nature of the two alliances. While BJP's alliance partners have more chances to bring in additional votes, whereas the alliance partners in INDIA alliance are competing for a similar vote class.

For example Om Prakash Rajbhar in NDA can help BJP in a constituency like Gazipur that it lost in 2019, whereas Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress in Uttar Pradesh does not swing any voting class away from BJP.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) which could make some impact is out of the alliance, and it's experiment of 'Mahagathbandhan' in Uttar Pradesh with SP failed in 2019.

There could not have been a bigger test of opposition unity than SP and BSP coming together. If the two could not impact overall verdict in 2019, it is utopian to expect this new INDIA alliance to change the sentiment on ground without a credible leader.

The key to General Elections 2024 lies in the performance of the BJP in Bihar, Maharashtra and Bengal. Bihar for BJP is positioned similar to as it was in the run up to 2014 Elections.

With Nitish Kumar political graph dwindling and BJP having aligned with smaller regional players, the BJP can repeat it's tally of 2014. NDA crossing 30 cannot be ruled out with Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and other smaller regional parties joining it.

In Maharashtra with Ajit Pawar faction of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) joining the BJP any possible dent by Uddhav faction on NDA also looks to be neutralised.

The BJP in Maharashtra both in 2014 and 2019 won 23 of the 24 and 25 seats it contested. In Bengal too, if recent Panchayat polls are to be extrapolated the BJP only sits near or around its 2019 performance. Since 2021 assembly elections TMC has not been able to solidify the political narrative particularly when it enters the Lok Sabha election battle.

Any serious challenge to PM Narendra Modi's chances of repeating as Prime Minister in 2024 could only have come in three situations-

a) Weak NDA alliance in Southern states.

With JDS not joining the INDIA alliance in Karnataka any disproportionate gain that Congress was expecting Karnataka looks to be halted. In 2014 the BJP won 17 seats and in 2019 25 seats. Going down significantly from the 2014 tally is highly unlikely.

In Tamil Nadu by keeping AIADMK in its fold the NDA has only upward to go( it secured 0/39 seats in 2019). Kerala is one state where INDIA alliance can see an upward trajectory.

b) Absence of Naveen Patnaik, KCR, and Jagan from INDIA alliance meet in Bengaluru

Except Mamta Banerjee other leaders that have the ability to pull some votes in a presidential style Lok Sabha elections were KCR, Naveen Patnaik, and Jagan Reddy.

With Naveen and Jagan staying away from both the alliance meetings, and also enjoying a good personal relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi the Opposition alliance have lost their main political catalyst.

Further the BJP is only looking upward in Telangana when it comes to the Lok Sabha elections. In 2019 it won 4 out of 17 seats, and it's social base in Telangana has only improved.

c) Situation similar to 2004

2023 is not 2003, and PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have not made the mistake that was made by team Atal Bihari Vajypayee near 2004. It was not India shining that defeated the BJP, but it's wrong political assesment in Uttar Pradesh where it chose to go with Mulayam Singh over Mayawati, and where in 2003 it's cadre felt demotivated with no delivery or commitment on ideological issues.

None of these two situations are observed on the ground in run up to 2024. Ram Mandir will be open to Darshan in January 2024, and BJP in Uttar Pradesh is stronger in 2023 than it was in 2018. Add to it the targeted welfare benefits that have reached the rural poor BJP is on a strong wicket.

Honestly, whether it is Mahagathbandhan of 2019, or rebranded UPA (INDIA) in 2024 both have not been able to solve the basic question — they have not been able to project a leader with similar popularity, and wide social reach that PM Narendra Modi has.

They are also not fighting to defeat BJP lead NDA with their current strategy but limit it to 230-250. For popular leaders history has always shown — "Either they win convincingly, or lose convincingly".

Arithmetic calculations can happen near elections, but if present sentiment on ground continues upto 2024, and nothing earth shattering happens — "People of India may have already made up their mind to see Narendra Modi 3.0 in 2024".

Pradeep Bhandari

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