Political Tensions And Targeted Budget Announcements Point To Snap Elections In Bihar

On expected lines, the Union Budget for 2025-26 came with a big bonanza for Bihar. It is the second budget in a row where Bihar has prominently featured.

The state will get a Makhana Board – the first of its kind. It will improve production, processing, value addition, and marketing of makhana. This board will coordinate with stakeholders – which include farmers, government departments, and financial institutions – to ensure that farmers benefit from it.

With 10,000 tonnes, Bihar’s share in makhana production of the country is more than 90 per cent. As health concerns rise, makhana is gaining traction as a superfood. Currently, more than 90 per cent of global makhana exports come from India.

In Bihar, makhana is largely produced in the Kosi-Seemanchal districts of Saharsa, Katihar, Purnia, Supaul, Kishanganj, and Araria.

To enhance the productivity of more than 50,000 hectares of land in the Kosi-Seemanchal and larger Mithilanchal regions, financial support will be provided to the Western Kosi Canal ERM Project.

Another institution called the National Institute of Food Technology, Entrepreneurship, and Management will also be established in Bihar.

“The institute will provide a strong fillip to food processing activities in the entire Eastern region. This will result in (1) enhanced income for the farmers through value addition to their produce, and (2) skilling, entrepreneurship, and employment opportunities for the youth,” said the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her speech.

In terms of infrastructure, Bihar will benefit from the announcement of the expansion of Patna airport and a brownfield airport at Bihta. The government will also facilitate the establishment of greenfield airports in the state.

Bihar grabbed the central position in Sitharaman’s speech. Even when she made a general announcement for an increase in hostel and other infrastructure facilities in different IITs, Sitharaman singled out IIT Patna as an example.

The government is being criticised for giving too much emphasis on the state for the last two budgets. While the 2024-25 budget push to Bihar owes to the fact that Nitish Kumar did not pull his support from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), this year’s allocation is important because of the upcoming state election.

Although it generally takes place in the last quarter of the year, speculations are rife that Nitish Kumar is gearing up for a snap election in the upcoming months.

Kumar has some solid reasons to do so, and the more he delays things, the more opportunity there will be for the opposition as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to strengthen its position in the alliance.

Kumar has been furious with the BJP after Home Minister Amit Shah did not shy away from the possibility of a Maharashtra-like arrangement of its own chief minister for Bihar in 2025.

Kumar did not take it lightly, and Kumar began his pressure politics. For more than three weeks, Kumar and his party maintained a stoic and strategic silence while the media kept talking about a possible change of alliance partners.

Leaders from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), including supremo Lalu Yadav, also refused to state anything which could quash these rumours.

Kumar refusing to attend the final day of Bihar Business Connect 2024 was taken as a grim reminder to the BJP on his part. He also announced plans to conduct a statewide outreach to the people of Bihar. At the time when the Yatra was announced, Kumar’s own health was also being questioned, and his Yatra was supposed to answer such concerns.

However, the protests related to discrepancies in BPSC examinations went out of hand for the Nitish Kumar administration. Prashant Kishor, who has launched his own Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), took the lead here and emerged as a narrative-setter in state politics with his Gandhian approach of hunger strikes and ashram politics.

The matter is in the High Court now, but Kishor got a much-needed platform to air his criticism of Kumar. Kumar’s out-of-the-blue statements and bizarre mannerisms during the Yatra gave Kishor yet another piece of ammunition against him.

Kishor questioned his mental fitness and asked the government to release a medical bulletin in this regard. RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav also spoke on similar lines, but his attacks on Kumar are not as frequent as Kishor’s. In fact, Kishor can take credit for the fact that this issue is now discussed on national channels.

Kumar’s problems are further complicated by alliance partners Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)). Both are pressuring the BJP to increase their respective seat shares in the upcoming elections.

Paswan, being more vocal, has even aired his criticism of Kumar’s handling of student issues – fuelling speculation of a possible alliance between LJP(RV) and JSP.

The BJP is also playing its part in Kumar’s troubles by pushing Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary as a chief ministerial face. He is seen as more active than ever before.

Kumar’s footing in Bihar’s politics is strong, but currently, he is standing on thin ice, which is melting very quickly. Kumar would want to capitalise on the momentum through early elections.