Fertiliser Freeze: Inside Beijing's Silent Strike On India’s Food Security

At a time when diplomatic backchannels are humming with efforts to normalise Sino-Indian ties, a quieter but far more disconcerting crisis is brewing at Chinese ports.

For the past two months, China has halted shipments of specialty fertilisers to India, top executives of several large importers told The Economic Times.

“China has been restricting suppliers of specialty fertilisers to India for the last four to five years. However, this time it is a complete halt,” said Rajib Chakraborty, President of the Soluble Fertiliser Industry Association (SFIA).

What makes this move especially troubling is its selective nature: China continues to supply these critical agri-inputs to other nations even as India finds itself abruptly cut off. This fertiliser freeze joins a growing list of coercive economic tools that Beijing has recently wielded, from curbing exports of rare earth magnets to withholding tunnel boring machines.

In these circumstances, it is pertinent to ask: why is China weaponising trade dependencies, this time targeting the very bedrock of India’s food security?

A Fertiliser 101

Think of fertilisers as gourmet meals for crops, supplying essential nutrients that fuel plant growth and boost yields.

India’s fertiliser journey began in earnest during the Green Revolution of the mid-1960s, which introduced high-yielding crop varieties. By 2005, the country had emerged as the world’s second-largest consumer of fertilisers by total nutrient volume.

Yet, this milestone masks a troubling imbalance: Indian farmers often overuse conventional fertilisers like urea, di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), and muriate of potash (MOP), which, though rich in primary nutrients, do not provide a holistic nutrient profile. This has led to suboptimal results on agricultural productivity and thereby farmers’ profitability.

Contrary to popular belief, most crops do not require copious quantities of these high-analysis fertilisers. What they truly need is balanced fertilisation, through products having nutrients in the right quantities and proportions for effective absorption by the plant roots and leaves.

This is precisely where specialty fertilisers come into play.

The Rise of Specialty Fertilisers

There is no single, global definition of "specialty fertilisers," but the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) includes a range of innovative products under the label.

These include: controlled-release fertilisers (CRFs), slow-release fertilisers (SRFs), sulphur-coated urea (SCU), stabilised nitrogen fertilisers (SNFs), water-soluble fertilisers (WSFs), liquid NPKs, and chelated micronutrients and boron.

In India, specialty fertilisers are broadly categorised as WSFs, neem-coated urea, fortified fertilisers, customised fertilisers (CFs), micronutrient fertilisers, and liquid fertilisers.

These products are developed through sustained experimentation to suit a matrix of soil fertility levels, crop types, water availability, and climatic conditions.

Globally, specialty fertiliser usage has been steadily increasing. By 2018, global consumption stood at 20.4 million tonnes in product terms and 9.0 million tonnes in nutrient terms. While specialty fertilisers account for only around 10 per cent of the total fertiliser market by value, they make up nearly 5 per cent by nutrient volume, and this share is growing rapidly.

Amid rising demand for high-quality crops, increasing environmental concerns, and a global push to boost nutrient use efficiency (NUE), balanced fertilisation has become a necessity, not an option. This is precisely why specialty fertilisers are poised for wider adoption.

The China Factor

In the global fertiliser industry, China reigns supreme, both in scale and influence. Once a major importer of urea, the country's fertiliser business has now grown to such a scale that it is now the world’s largest producer, consumer, and exporter of urea and ammoniated phosphates, and among the top producers and users of potash.

India, in particular, is heavily reliant on China for its fertiliser needs.

Nearly 80 per cent of India's specialty fertiliser imports, including water-soluble nutrients, liquid foliar sprays, slow- and controlled-release formulations, and bio-stimulants, come from Chinese manufacturers.

The country typically imports around 150,000 to 160,000 tonnes of these high-efficiency nutrients during the June to December cropping period, according to industry estimates cited by ET.

But the story does not end there, nor is it without complications.

Beyond specialty inputs, China’s erratic export policies are disrupting supplies of a far more critical fertiliser: di-ammonium phosphate (DAP). Rich in phosphorous, DAP is vital for early-stage plant growth, especially during root and shoot development. It is typically applied by farmers during sowing, alongside the seeds.

DAP is India’s second most-consumed fertiliser, with an average annual demand of 103.4 lakh tonnes (lt) over the past five years, second only to urea, which averages 359 lt. A significant portion of this DAP, nearly 57 lt annually, is imported in finished form.

In 2023–24, India imported 22.9 lt of DAP from China, making Beijing a prominent, if not the top, supplier. But by 2024–25, that figure had plummeted to just 8.4 lt, with zero imports recorded since January 2025.

Reading Between the (Supply) Lines

China is not just a fertiliser giant, it is now leveraging this dominance as a strategic bargaining chip, particularly with countries like India.

Officially, Chinese authorities cite technical justifications for some of these export delays. Chinese Customs officials point to heightened inspections under CIQ (China Inspection and Quarantine) protocols, supposedly to safeguard domestic agricultural supply and tame inflation.

But behind the bureaucratic curtain, the story looks far more deliberate.

Sources familiar with the situation told The Economic Times that China has not been inspecting shipments meant for India, using various procedures to block exports without imposing an express ban. The pattern suggests this is less about domestic need and more about strategic messaging.

A likely trigger? India’s economic tightening after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, where tensions flared violently along the Himalayan border.

Since then, India has tightened the screws on China, blocking FDI under Press Note 3, banning over 200 Chinese apps on national security grounds, and maintaining limited direct flights between the two nations.

Introduced in 2020, Press Note 3 (PN3) mandates prior government approval for FDI proposals from countries sharing a land border with India, including China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, and Afghanistan.

Strategic Obstruction, Not Supply Shortage

To Beijing, these moves represent a shrinking economic gateway to India’s vast market. The fertiliser blockade, therefore, appears less about agricultural policy and more a tit-for-tat power play, a pressure tactic dressed as trade compliance.

There is compelling data to support the argument that this pattern of selective obstruction is driven not by economic considerations, but by strategic intent.

Fertiliser usage in China has seen eight consecutive years of declines since 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Yet, agricultural production has remained stable, with grain output reaching a record high of 706.5 billion tonnes in 2024, a 1.6 per cent increase over the previous year, according to NBS data.

In other words, China does not need to hoard fertilisers. Its supply chains are intact, its food output robust, and domestic demand under control. This makes the export freeze toward India a calculated strategic move, not an economic necessity.

Where Does India Go From Here?

As food security becomes more intertwined with national security and technological sovereignty in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Indian policymakers must recognise that agricultural nutrient needs are growing more diverse and complex.

Fertilisers are costly and largely imported, making efficient use non-negotiable. This is where the 4R Nutrient Stewardship framework of 'right source, right rate, right time, and right place' becomes essential, argues Satish Chander, former Director General of the Fertiliser Association of India (FAI).

Still, challenges persist. The uptake of specialty fertilisers, especially outside of WSFs, remains dismally low. To change this, Chander urges bold policy reforms that accelerate the approval and adoption of innovative fertiliser products.

At the same time, the fertiliser industry also needs to adopt a different marketing approach for new innovative specialty products. The marketers have to shift their focus from ‘selling product’ to ‘selling crop nutrition solutions,’ Chander observes.

The Modi government’s move to mandatory coat all urea with neem oil, neem-coated urea (NCU), offers a valuable precedent. Likewise, the launch of ‘KRIBHCO Rhizosuper’, an innovative bio-stimulant by farmers’ cooperative agency Krishak Bharati Cooperative Limited (KRIBHCO), showcases how homegrown innovation and institutional support can drive the uptake of smarter fertiliser solutions.