India Tops Global Population Chart, Peak Expected At 170 Crore In 40 Years; Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level: UN Report

India’s population reached an estimated 146.39 crore by April 2025, according to the latest report from United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA), The Hindu reported.

India is now officially the “world’s most populous nation,” surpassing China, which currently has a population of 141.61 crore.

UNFPA's 'State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis' notes a significant demographic shift as India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.

TFR refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to bear over her reproductive lifespan.

The population is projected to peak at around 170 crore before beginning to decline in roughly 40 years.

According to a report by The Hindu report, the UNFPA’s demographic findings closely align with India’s 2019 projections, which estimated the population at 141.10 crore in 2025.

The upcoming national Census, delayed since 2021, is expected to be completed by March 2027. The last Census was conducted in 2011.

India’s 2021 Sample Registration System report recorded the national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 2.0, signalling that the country has met the replacement-level fertility.

Highlighting the “real” fertility crisis, the UN report emphasises that millions are unable to achieve their desired family size due to limited reproductive choices.

It advocates for promoting “reproductive agency,” the ability to make informed and free decisions about family planning.

India’s demographic composition shows 24 per cent of the population is aged 0–14, 17 per cent falls in the 10–19 age group, and 26 per cent in the 10–24 bracket.

About 68 per cent are in the working-age group (15–64), while 7 per cent are aged 65 and above, a figure expected to grow.

Life expectancy in 2025 is projected at 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

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