Morning Brief: Most Exit Polls Predict BJP Win In Delhi; RBI Looks At First Rate Cut In Nearly Five Years; Services Growth Slows To 26-Month Low In January; And More

Catch up on the day’s must-read stories with Swarajya's roundup of the morning's headlines.

Most Exit Polls Predict BJP Win In Delhi

Most exit polls have predicted a victory for the BJP in the Delhi Assembly elections, with some suggesting a landslide win, while a few agencies have projected AAP’s return to power. Six polls, including Chanakya Strategies, P Marq, and People’s Pulse, gave BJP+ a clear edge, with seat estimates ranging from 39 to 60. If the BJP wins, it would return to the helm in the national capital after a hiatus of 27 years.

Two exit polls, Matrize and D V Research, indicated a close contest, while three agencies, including Mind Brink Media and Wee Preside, projected an AAP victory. Notably, some polls suggested that the Congress might win 1-3 seats after drawing a blank in 2020.

Leading agencies such as Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya have announced that they will reveal their projections for Delhi on Thursday (6 February).

RBI Looks At First Rate Cut In Nearly Five Years

The RBI’s monetary policy committee, which began its meeting on Wednesday (5 February), is expected to announce a rate cut on Friday, the first in nearly five years. The last reduction came in May 2020 when the repo rate was lowered to 4 per cent to support the Covid-hit economy, followed by seven hikes to 6.5 per cent amid inflationary pressures from the Ukraine war, supply chain disruptions, and global price surges. Since February 2023, rates have remained unchanged.

While most economists predict a 25 basis point cut, some caution that it may be premature, especially if Donald Trump escalates tariff threats, heightening financial market volatility. A lower interest rate could also weaken the rupee, as foreign investors may find US debt more attractive.

India's Service Activity Hits 26-Month Low In January

India’s service activity fell to a 26-month low of 56.5 in January, marking a slowdown in new business intakes, according to a private survey. The HSBC India Services Business Activity Index dropped from 59.3 in December 2024 and 61.8 in January 2024. While new business intakes grew at the slowest pace since November 2023, favorable demand conditions, new business wins, and investments in technology drove output growth. International sales reached a five-month high, and job creation surged to its fastest pace since December 2005. Despite rising costs, including higher staff and food prices, service providers remain optimistic about future business activity growth.

Other Developments

Around 8,000 Join PM Internship Scheme In 4 Months

Around 8,000 candidates have joined the Prime Minister's Internship Scheme in its first four months since its launch in October 2024. The scheme, announced in the Union Budget for 2024-25, offers 1.27 lakh internship opportunities through 280 partner companies. By January 29, 2025, 82,077 internship offers had been made to 60,866 candidates, with 28,141 accepting the offers. However, only a portion of the candidates have taken up the internships so far. The second round of the scheme began on January 9, with companies posting new and revised internship opportunities.

Khalistani Accused In Attack On Indian Mission In London Gets Bail

In a shocking turn of events, a Delhi court has granted bail to Inderpal Singh Gaba, a London resident accused in the pro-Khalistani attack on the Indian High Commission in London in March 2023. The National Investigation Agency had linked the attack on March 19 and an associated agitation on March 22, in which Gaba participated, to a coordinated effort aimed at influencing the crackdown on the "Waris Punjab De" group and its leader, Amritpal Singh. However, the court ruled that Gaba's involvement appeared to be limited to the March 22 incident. The judge stated that even if the allegations against Gaba were true, they did not warrant a life sentence or death penalty.

Indian Deportees Say They Were Shackled on US Military Flight

Indian nationals deported from the US claimed they were shackled on a military flight, with their hands and legs cuffed throughout the journey. The flight, carrying 104 deportees, including 19 women and 13 minors, landed in Amritsar as part of Donald Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration. One deportee, Jaspal Singh from Gurdaspur, said they were only unshackled after landing in Amritsar and described being detained for 11 days before being sent back. Despite these claims, the Indian government dismissed the accusations, clarifying that a viral image showing shackled migrants actually depicted Guatemalan nationals. Singh, who was apprehended by US Border Patrol in January, claimed he was defrauded by a travel agent promising legal entry into the US.

From The State

DMK Poised For Easy Win In Erode East Bypoll

The DMK is expected to win the Erode East bypoll, with the contest mainly between the ruling party and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by Tamil nationalist Seeman, following a boycott by the AIADMK, BJP, and other opposition parties. The bypoll was triggered by the death of Congress MLA EVKS Elangovan in December 2024, and the Congress ceded the seat to its ally, the DMK. The campaign has been relatively low-key, with no major scandals or high-profile campaigners, reflecting the DMK’s confidence. Despite NTK’s efforts to rally anti-DMK votes, an upset victory for them remains unlikely due to the DMK’s strong voter base and the ruling party advantage. The primary focus of the election has been NTK's attempt to frame it as a battle between Dravidianism and Tamil nationalism.

Telangana: CM Clears Path For SC Sub-Categorisation

Apart from tabling the caste survey report, Chief Minister Revanth Reddy also cleared the path for sub-categorisation of Scheduled Castes. The proposal suggests reserving percentages within the SC quota for 59 sub-castes based on their population. The House adopted both the caste survey report and the sub-categorization plan, with support from the Opposition Bharat Rashtra Samithi and BJP. Reddy outlined that the 59 sub-castes would be divided into three groups: Group I with 1 per cent reservation, Group II with 9 per cent, and Group III with 5 per cent, with no creamy layer exclusion. The move, however, is expected to face opposition from the dominant SC Mala group, which has historically benefitted from the SC quota.

Karnataka BJP Feud Escalates 

The feud within Karnataka BJP has escalated as factions led by MLA Basangouda Yatnal Patil and state BJP president B Y Vijayendra vie for control. The Yatnal faction has been meeting with top party leadership in Delhi, pushing for a leadership change, while the Vijayendra camp is set to discuss elections for the state chief’s post in Bengaluru on February 12. Adding to the tension, former state minister B Sriramulu has emerged as a potential candidate to replace Vijayendra. The Yatnal camp has hinted at a favorable outcome, fueling further speculation.

Follow along for more updates throughout the day.