NDA Set For Clear Majority In Bihar, Says First Opinion Poll

The first opinion poll for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections projects a strong lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), reported Financial Express.

The IANS–Matrize News Communications survey estimates that the NDA could secure 49 per cent of votes and 150–160 seats in the 243-member Assembly, signaling a decisive majority.

According to the Bihar Vidhan Sabha Chunav Opinion Poll–2025, the NDA’s vote share has risen sharply from 37.3 per cent in 2020, when it narrowly defeated the opposition. Within the alliance, the BJP is projected to lead with 21 per cent votes and 80–85 seats, followed by JD(U) with 18 per cent votes and 60–65 seats. Smaller allies — HAM (2 per cent; 3–6 seats), LJP(R) (6 per cent; 4–6 seats), and RLM (2 per cent; 1–2 seats) — are also expected to contribute to the coalition’s total.

The INDIA bloc is forecast to secure 36 per cent votes and 70–85 seats, slightly below its 37.2 per cent share in 2020. The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, remains the key challenger with 21 per cent votes and 60–65 seats, while the Congress is projected at 8 per cent (7–10 seats). Left parties — CPI(ML)L (4 per cent; 6–9 seats), CPI (1 per cent), and CPI(M) (1 per cent) — retain marginal influence.

The Jan Suraaj Party, founded by strategist Prashant Kishor, is likely to draw 7 per cent votes and 2–5 seats, reflecting voter interest in alternatives to traditional blocs.

Experts note that while polls indicate a clear NDA advantage, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and campaign momentum across Bihar’s 70 million electorate.

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