Dear Congress, Tribals Are Firmly With The BJP: Reservation Bogey Won't Work

Standpoint: South China Sea heats up as the 'Red Dragon' grows and grows

There's rarely a two-week period when the South China Sea doesn't heat up, thanks to our northern neighbor's adventures in the region.

My colleague Ujjwal Shrotriya reported on the maiden sea trials of China's third aircraft carrier, 'Fujian', which began on May 1.

This comes amidst growing tensions in the South China Sea between China, the US, and its allies.

• Not even 24 hours before these trials, the Chinese Coast Guard rammed into and blasted water cannons on two Philippine supply ships.

• The two maritime neighbors have routinely clashed over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the past year.

• China claims both under its imaginary Nine-dash line just as the Philippines and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) reject the same.

Ongoing military games reflect the future of the region: The US, Philippines, France, and Australia are conducting their largest-ever exercises in the region.

The Chinese have responded in kind with their own military exercises.

• USA has deployed its Typhoon missile system in the Philippines.

• Sea trials of China's third aircraft carrier 'Fujian' have only added to the anxieties.

• Routine harassment of the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam's fishing vessels foretells the volatile future under the shadow of China's enhanced naval power.

PLAN's expanding fleet of Aircraft Carriers: This has added to the insecurity of smaller nations in the South China Sea.

• That People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has inducted two aircraft carriers in a decade, shows China's seriousness and ambition.

• Fujian's catapult launching system allows it to launch heavy aircraft like KJ-600 AWACS and fighter jets at their full capacity.

• Once the 5th generation J-31 fighter jets start operating from Fujian, it will put Chinese capabilities beyond the reach of any of its neighbours.

• These neighbors shudder as the Chinese plan to induct 5-6 more aircraft carriers by 2035.

China's land neighbour India isn't untouched by its brazenness: In the next decade, China plans to station a carrier battle group (CBG) in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

• The mandate of CBGs will be to secure the maritime sea lanes of Malacca, Lombok, and Sunda straits.

• The more pressing plan of PLAN is to challenge the Indian Navy's dominance in the IOR.

• CBGs are a fraction of the challenge that the Indian Navy, with its two aircraft carriers — INS Vikrant and Vikramaditya — will have to face.

• China controls the Hambantota port (Sri Lanka), has a military base in Djibouti, is working overtime on Kyaukphyu (Myanmar), and has access to Ream naval base (Thailand).

'Red' sirens for India, literally: It has to make do with just 40-odd MiG-29K fighter jets, barely enough to form an air fleet for both its carriers.

• Approval for another aircraft carrier is pending with the Defense Acquisition Council (DAC).

• Even if approval is granted now, it will take 7-8 years to build and an additional 2-3 years for trials and induction, which takes us to 2035!

• By then, INS Vikramaditya will be nearing retirement, once again leaving the Indian Navy with just two aircraft carriers.

To not leave the Indian Navy handicapped against an unshackled bully must be the incoming government's priority.

Muddy Waters: Congress' reservation bogey won't work as STs firmly back BJP

Reservations are a hot pie this election season. Beyond OBCs and SCs, let's talk about STs (scheduled tribes) today.

• Every eleventh person in India is a tribal (2011 census). That gives us 47 ST reserved seats, just over 10% of the 543.

• These tribals are mainly concentrated across Central and North East India.

• In sync with Congress' twisted vision of Muslims being OBCs in Karnataka, Lakshadweep's Moplah Muslims have been accorded tribal status, albeit under an arcane 'administrative reason' dating back to the 1950s.

Hymns to Bhakti: The predatory conversions by evangelists rampant in tribal districts have been stemmed and even reversed.

• The dedicated and intense grassroot efforts led by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) merit credit for this.

• The change is self-evident as melodious bhajans blare from shops in the tribal districts of Western Ghats, Aravallis, or along the Narmada in Central India.

• "Today, they are tribals because they are Hindus and they are Hindus because they are tribals," notes Venu Gopal Narayanan in this piece.

Political dividends or fallout of this change is reinforced with each passing election: BJP largely reaps the dividends whereas evangelists and their patrons in politics lament the fallout.

• Past three general elections show that BJP has improved its tally in the 47 tribal seats every 5 years.

• In 2009, the BJP won 'only' 13 of 47 ST seats — less than a third — mainly from Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

• In 2014, this doubled to 26 with BJP sweeping all the 17 ST seats in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.

• In 2019, BJP won 30 of 47 ST seats making inaugural gains in Assam, Telangana, and Tripura.

• The change is particularly striking in the Northeast — here BJP directly governs or is in ruling alliance in all the states except Mizoram.

• even Christian tribes are shunning narco-separatism for mainstream politics of development and peace.

From Insignificance to Dominance: BJP polled over 50% in 15 ST seats and between 40-50% in 18.

• Congress polled over 50% in only one seat — Shillong. It may lose even that this time!

• In a straight fight with the Congress in 26 seats, BJP lost only 2 in 2019 (Bastar and Singhbhum) — both by small margins.

• Additionally, BJP has 10 firewall ST seats which it won consecutively in 2009, 2014, and 2019.

• In Odisha, BJP is set to replace the Congress as the principal opposition party against the BJD.

After years of selfless and excruciating toil, BJP has become the principal, undisputed political force in the tribal districts.

Come 2024, the party has only one direction to move in — AHEAD!

- Anmol Jain and Amar Govindarajan