Cracks In The BJP's North-East Alliance?

The North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), the regional bloc of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is facing increasing internal strife as tensions escalate among its key members.

The latest flashpoint between former Manipur chief minister N Biren Singh and Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma reflects deeper fractures within the coalition, particularly as the alliance grapples with declining political fortunes in the North East in the aftermath of the Manipur crisis.

Sangma, the leader of the National People's Party (NPP), has been particularly vocal in his criticism of Singh’s handling of the ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur.

The NPP, which was once an ally in the Manipur government, withdrew its support in November 2023, citing Singh’s inability to restore peace in the violence-stricken state.

Sangma had previously also called for President’s Rule in the state. This marked a significant shift in NPP’s stance, as it had been a key regional ally of the BJP, even sharing power in multiple states. However, the deteriorating law and order situation in Manipur — particularly the ongoing ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities — forced NPP and other regional parties to reassess their ties with the NDA.

Singh, who resigned as Manipur’s chief minister on 9 February 2024, retaliated against Sangma by invoking the latter’s late father, Purno Agitok Sangma. In a social media post, Singh shared a 43-second clip of P A Sangma’s speech in Lok Sabha from 2014, where the senior Sangma advocated for the creation of smaller states in the North East, including demands for Gorkhaland, Bodoland, Karbi Anglong, and Garoland.

Singh used this reference to suggest that the late Sangma’s ideas were dangerous and that they could lead to further division and instability in the region.

He linked these historical remarks to the current demand by Kuki-Zomi groups for a separate Kukiland, implying that external forces, including political leaders like Sangma, were interfering in Manipur’s internal affairs to destabilise the state.

Sangma swiftly responded to Singh’s remarks, condemning the reference to his father and accusing Singh of engaging in political posturing instead of working towards peace in Manipur.

He emphasized that his father had always been an advocate for the rights of the North East and that his legacy should not be used to score political points.

Sangma’s rebuttal highlights a growing sense of frustration among regional leaders who feel that the BJP’s approach to governance in the North East, particularly in handling ethnic conflicts, has been inadequate and damaging to their electoral prospects.

The public fallout and spat between Sangma and Singh is symptomatic of a larger trend in North East politics. The NPP, once a strong ally of the BJP, has been gradually distancing itself from the saffron party, driven largely by the declining support among Christian voters in the region.

The 2024 general election proved to be a significant blow for the NPP, as it lost both Lok Sabha seats from Meghalaya. Additionally, the NDA as a whole suffered electoral losses in Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram — states with significant Christian populations.

The primary reason behind this electoral setback is the ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur, which has alienated Christian voters and led to growing resentment against the BJP-led alliance.

The conflict in Manipur has exacerbated the perception that the BJP is insensitive to the concerns of Christian communities in the region. The violence, which has largely affected the Kuki-Zomi community — predominantly Christian — has been a key issue in shaping public opinion against the NDA.

Sensing the shifting political landscape, parties like the NPP are increasingly pressured to take an anti-BJP stance to regain lost ground. The withdrawal of support for the Biren Singh government and Sangma’s vocal criticism of the BJP’s handling of Manipur indicate a strategic move to distance the NPP from the NDA ahead of upcoming state elections.

The growing discord within NEDA poses a significant challenge for the BJP’s long-term prospects in the North East. While the alliance was initially formed to consolidate anti-Congress forces in the region, internal divisions and the BJP’s declining popularity among key demographic groups threaten its stability.

In addition, other challenges emerging across different states have signalled a shift in the political landscape of the North East and a broader crisis for the BJP and the NDA.

In Mizoram, the Chief Minister, who comes from the ruling Zoram People's Movement (ZPM), a Christian conservative party, had come under fire for allegedly referring to India as an "enemy" during a visit to the United States (US). Such rhetoric, if true, represents a significant shift in discourse, reflecting deep-seated dissatisfaction with the central government.

Mizoram has long had a unique political and cultural identity, and the ongoing ethnic crisis in neighbouring Manipur has further alienated its people from BJP’s governance model.

Meanwhile, in Nagaland, longstanding political negotiations with Naga groups have hit a roadblock due to the BJP-led government’s push for delimitation and the Register of Indigenous Inhabitants of Nagaland (RIIN) project.

Naga political groups, engaged in peace talks with the government for decades, view these initiatives as a threat to their autonomy and traditional governance structures. The opposition to these policies has reignited concerns over the fragility of the peace process and could potentially lead to a resurgence of tensions in the region.

Adding to the unrest, a massive movement has emerged in both Nagaland and Manipur against the fencing of the Burma border, with politicians and civil society groups demanding the restoration of the Free Movement Regime (FMR).

The FMR has historically allowed unrestricted movement across the India-Myanmar border for ethnic communities with shared ancestry. Its revocation has been seen as an attack on indigenous rights and cross-border kinship ties, further fuelling resentment against the central government. The scale of the protests indicates widespread discontent, further weakening the NDA’s position in the region.

Taken together, these simultaneous challenges reflect a growing distrust towards the BJP and its regional allies in the NDA. The political climate in the North East is shifting towards instability, with stronger demands for autonomy and a resurgence of separatist sentiments.

The BJP’s inability to address these concerns effectively risks not only further electoral losses but also the possibility of a fractured North East, where regional parties may align against the central government in pursuit of greater self-determination.

If the BJP fails to address the concerns raised by its regional allies, it risks further defections from NEDA. Given the current political climate, there is a possibility that the NPP and other regional parties may realign themselves with opposition forces in the near future.

The public spat between Singh and Sangma is not merely a personal feud but a reflection of the broader fractures within NEDA. The BJP’s mishandling of the Manipur crisis, coupled with the alienation of Christian voters, has weakened its hold over the region.

As regional parties like the NPP reassess their political alignments, the future of NEDA remains uncertain, with potential for further fragmentation in the years to come.