Explained: The Road To Peace In Manipur Travels Through Myanmar's Chin Province

A tenuous peace, threatened occasionally by abductions and killings, has settled over Manipur that had been wracked by ethnic strife since May 2023. 

But the distinct reduction in the scale of violence witnessed for the better part of 2023 and early 2024 has not paved the path for return to normalcy as yet. 

The ethnic divide, and mistrust, between the Meities and Kukis, and even the Kukis and Nagas, still exists. 

Talks between representatives of the Meitei and Kuki communities that are being brokered by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) have gotten off to a nebulous start, but it will take a long time for the two communities to bury the hatchet and smoke the peace pipe. 

However, lasting peace in Manipur will remain a chimera till Kuki-Chin militants, especially the ones from the Chin state of neighbouring Myanmar, lay down arms or leave Manipur. 

And that can only happen once the Chin militants in Myanmar score a decisive victory over the ruling junta and take full and total control of the Chin state. 

That is why, say MHA officials and security experts, the road to peace in Manipur winds through Myanmar’s hilly and densely forested Chin state. 

As long as the Chin state remains unsettled with the militants there waging bruising battles with junta forces, there is unlikely to be lasting peace in Manipur. 

That’s because, say security experts, the Chin militants from Myanmar will continue to enter and take refuge in Manipur. And their presence in Manipur is the biggest hurdle to the return of peace in the trouble-torn Northeastern state. 

“The well-armed and well-trained militants from Chin state are not only taking refuge in Manipur, but have also been training and arming the Kuki militants in the state. The militants from across the border have even actively participated in attacks on Meiteis by Kuki militants,” said retired Brigadier S.K.Sharma who had served in Manipur. 

The Kukis and Chins share very close ethnic ties and are, along with the Mizos and other smaller tribes, part of the larger Zo ethnic family. 

Why armed offensive against Chin-Kuki militants will be counterproductive

The obvious question that arises is why the tens of thousands of troops of the army, Assam Rifles, central armed police forces like the CRPF and BSF, and the Manipur police, have not been tasked with carrying out full scale counter-insurgency (CI) operations against the Chin and Kuki militants. 

The answer is simple: such operations will trigger angry reactions in Mizoram and alienate the people of that state, and also cost India the goodwill of the Chins in Myanmar. 

Mizoram had witnessed a two-decade-long fierce insurgency from 1966, and the Union Government rightly feels that it will be very unwise to roil the sensitive border state. 

“Mizoram is a very sensitive state and Mizos are very touchy about their ethnic ties with the Chins and Kukis. It would be imprudent to anger them by launching operations against Kuki and Chin militants,” a senior MHA official told Swarajya. 

Moreover, the strategic balance that India is maintaining in Myanmar--having ties with both the junta and the ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and other resistance forces that are battling the junta in that country--would be affected if CI operations were to be launched against the Kuki and Chin militants in Manipur. 

“We have good ties with the Chin resistance forces and the Arakan Army. That provides us a lot of strategic depth in Myanmar. Operations against Chin resistance forces who have taken shelter in Manipur will be counter-productive. We cannot alienate the Chin forces because that will erode our influence in Myanmar and will also jeopardise major projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project,” a senior official of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told Swarajya. 

The Kaladan project involves transporting cargo by sea to the Sittwe port (in Rakhine province), and from there up the Kaladan river to Paletwa (Chin province) from where the cargo will be transported by road to Zorinpui, the entry point to Mizoram. 

This ambitious project, which will reduce time and cost for transportation of cargo, including heavy machinery, to the eastern part of the landlocked Northeastern region, has been held up due to fighting between the Myanmarese resistance forces and the junta forces. 

The Arakan Army (AA) has captured almost the entire Rakhine province except the Sittwe and Kyaukphyu ports. Paletwa is under AA’s firm control while the territory through which the road from Paletwa to Zorinpui in Mizoram passes is being held by the Chin resistance forces. 

The Chin resistance forces have captured and displaced junta forces from major parts of the Chin state. The junta forces are now present only in Chin capital Hakha, as well as Thantlang and Tedim townships. 

“It could only be a matter of time before the Chin forces and the Arakan Army gain full control of their respective states. And ultimately, these two states are most likely to become autonomous provinces in a loose federation of provinces that Myanmar seems to be headed to,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior fellow at Thailand’s Institute of Security & International Studies (ISIS) told Swarajya from Bangkok. 

If this assessment comes true, India will be dependent on the United League of Arakan (ULA)--the AA is the armed wing of the ULA--as well as the Chin National Council to protect and advance its interests in the two provinces. 

Hence, said the MEA official, antagonising the Chin National Council by launching counter-insurgency operations against Chin-Kuki militants in Manipur will be counterproductive for India. 

“Due to their close ethnic ties, the Chin and Kuki militants function in close coordination and in an integrated manner in Manipur. It is impossible to launch operations against the Kuki militants, which will definitely result in a lot of bloodshed, without inflicting harm on the Chin militants sheltered in Manipur as well,” explained army veteran Sharma.   

Hence, full-scale CI operations against the Chin-Kuki militants in Manipur are unlikely. 

Why resolution of armed conflict in Chin is important

Strategic affairs experts say that it will serve India’s interests if the Chin militants operating as the armed wing of the Chin National Council (CNC) score quick victories over the junta forces and gain complete control over the Chin state. 

“It does not serve India’s interests if the Chin resistance forces and the junta forces continue to fight each other and uncertainty prevails in the Chin state. Since the junta forces are losing ground rapidly, it is better for us if the Chin forces win and the CNC gains complete control of the entire Chin state,” said a strategic affairs expert with a leading think tank in New Delhi. 

It is because of this that New Delhi encouraged Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma to broker peace between the two primary Chin groups--the Chinland Council and the Interim Chin National Consultative Council--and bring about their merger in February this year. 

Chief Minister Lalduhoma oversaw the signing of an agreement between leaders of the two anti-junta groups and their merger into the Chin National Council in Aizawl on February 26. 

While the CM’s close involvement in brokering the agreement and the merger, as well as the presence of leaders of the anti-junta groups in Aizawl, initially evoked shock and consternation, it is learnt that the Union Government was aware of Lalduhoma’s moves and he had New Delhi’s tacit blessings. 

“It is much better (for India) to have ties and deal with one group rather than multiple rival groups. Hence our Chief Minister took the very important step of bringing the Chin resistance groups together,” said Mizoram’s lone Rajya Sabha MP K Vanlalvena. 

“The merger of the two primary Chin resistance groups has definitely strengthened the Chin resistance movement. And that improves the chances of Chin forces scoring a decisive victory over junta forces soon,” said the MHA official. 

New Delhi has, say highly-placed sources, taken some “positive steps” to help the Chin resistance groups as well as the United League of Arakan. 

Mizo MP’s mission in Myanmar

Vanlalvena crossed the Indo-Myanmar border on foot and went to headquarters of the Chinland Council and also ‘Camp Victoria’, an important base of the Chinland National Front Army (the armed wing of the Chinland Council) on February 27. 

“I had informed the Governor (retired General V.K.Singh) and also the Assam Rifles about my plans before crossing the border. I met leaders of various Chin resistance groups and appealed to them to join the Indian Union,” Vanlalvena, who now plans to travel to the Rakhine state to meet leaders of the Arakan Army, told Swarajya. 

The Rajya Sabha MP met senior leaders of the Chinland Council (which had merged with the other Chin group to form the Chin National Council a day before his visit) at Chinlung in Chin state. 

He then met the Chin National Army’s top leaders at ‘Camp Victoria’. “I appealed to all of them to join the Indian Union since the interests of the Chin people would be better served if they become part of India,” said Vanlalvena. 

“They (the Chinland Council and CNA leaders) are hesitant about joining the Indian Union (and making Chin state a part of India) since they are aligned with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (comprising anti-junta political parties). But some other Chin groups are open to the idea of joining the Indian Union,” the Rajya Sabha MP said.

He added that the leaders of the Chin Brotherhood Alliance (CBA), the armed wing of the Chin National Consultative Council, were “very receptive” to his suggestion that the Chin state become part of the Indian Union. 

While officials of the MHA and MEA declined to comment on Vanlalvena’s visit to Chin state and his proposal to the Chin groups to join the Indian Union, a senior officer of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) told Swarajya that New Delhi had been kept informed of the entire ‘project’ which, he added, is “a work in progress”. 

Vanlalvena, it is learnt, was a key person in New Delhi’s outreach to the Arakan Army. The Mizo National Front (MNF)--the political party that Vanlalvena belongs to--has very good ties with both the Chin resistance groups and the Arakan Army. 

Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who visited Aizawl in mid-March, is learnt to have discussed these matters with Chief Minister Lalduhoma and MNF leaders. Significantly, Shah was accompanied by IB chief Tapan Deka in his visit to Mizoram. 

Deka, a 1988 IPS officer who hails from Assam, sat in at the Union Home Minister’s meetings with Chief Minister Lalduhoma, MNF leaders and others in Aizawl. It is learnt that developments in Chin and Rakhine figured in a major way at these meetings. 

Shah also promised leaders of the Young Mizo Association (YMA)--the largest and most influential civil society group in the state--that adequate assistance would be provided to Mizoram to provide relief to the 40,000-odd Chin people from Myanmar who have taken refuge in the state. 

This is a marked departure from the Union Government’s earlier reluctance to provide such relief. Earlier this year, Shah had assured Lalduhoma that the Centre would no longer insist on deportation of Chin refugees till the situation in the Chin state normalised. The Union Government had, last year, asked Mizoram to deport the Myanmarese refugees. 

What is also significant is that former army chief General V K Singh was posted as Governor of Mizoram in January this year when the merger agreement between the Chin groups was being negotiated by senior Mizo politicians. 

“There is a lot at stake for India in Chin and Rakhine. It is very important for us to retain and strengthen our influence and standing with the Chin groups and the ULA (of Rakhine). We cannot afford to alienate anyone in Chin and Rakhine, not with China also planning moves in those two states of Myanmar,” the IB officer said. 

That is why counterinsurgency operations seem unlikely against the Chin-Kuki militants in Manipur. "Even if strong-arm tactics are used against them, it will have serious consequences across the border and alienate the Chin groups,” he added. 

Peace moves in Manipur

Given this, what lies ahead for Manipur? MHA officials told Swarajya  that once the conflict in Chin state comes to an end, the cadres of the Chin resistance groups would automatically return to their land. 

“Chin refugees sheltered in Mizoram will also return to Chin state. And then we can leverage the goodwill we have earned to request leaders of the Chin National Council to use their influence and nudge the Kukis to soften their stance and agree to a reconciliation with the Meiteis,” said the IB officer. 

Resolution of the conflict in Chin state with covert assistance from India will also sit well with political leaders of Mizoram. 

The Union Government’s calculation is that Mizoram’s political leadership can then urge the Kuki organisations to drop their demand for a separate Kuki state carved out of Mizoram and reconcile themselves to remain part of Manipur. 

“Mizo leaders have a huge influence over Kuki groups and leaders of the Kuki community in Manipur. The Mizo political leadership and civil society groups can easily ask the Kukis to get into an agreement with the Meiteis and enter into a process of reconciliation,” the IB official added. 

But for all this to happen, peace has to return to the Chin state that shares a 398 kilometre long border with southeastern Manipur. And given the current situation in Chin state, peace will return there only after Chin resistance groups score a decisive victory over the junta forces and ‘liberate’ the entire state from the junta’s control. 

“Once that happens, the Chin militants sheltered in Manipur will return to Myanmar, the Chin refugees in Mizoram will also return to Myanmar. Chin leaders, as well as the political leadership in Mizoram, will be thankful for the positive role played by New Delhi in bringing about a resolution of the conflict in Chin. And that goodwill can, and will be, leveraged to put pressure on the Kukis to overcome their current animosity towards the Meiteis and settle for peaceful coexistence (with the Meiteis and also the Nagas). That will usher in lasting peace in Manipur,” a politician belonging to the Manipuri Naga community told Swarajya.  

A senior Manipur police officer, who is an Additional DG, told Swarajya that the process has already started. “Meiteis and Kuki groups have started talking to each other formally under the aegis of the Union Government. Informal talks are also on between prominent and influential people and groups belonging to the two communities. Such dialogues are being held at multiple levels. All this is a harbinger for peace returning to Manipur”.

A resolution of the conflict in Chin state will also affect the neighbouring Sagaing region that borders eastern Manipur and Nagaland. 

“Once the fighting ends in Chin with the Chin resistance fighters scoring a decisive victory over the junta forces, things will settle down in Sagaing province where the Chin groups also operate. And since many (Imphal) valley-based insurgent groups (Meitei insurgent groups) also have safe havens in Sagaing region, we will be able to neutralise those safe havens with help from Myanmar-based groups,” the MHA official said.

That will weaken the Meitei insurgent groups and ultimately force them to surrender or get neutralised. The neutralisation of the Meitei insurgency is another pre-requisite for lasting peace in Manipur. 

Also read: 

India Must Seize The Strategic Window In Western Myanmar As Chin & Arakan Rebels Push Back Junta

How Recent Successes Of Rebel Forces In Myanmar’s Rakhine And Chin States Can Prove Advantageous For India

India’s Fine Balancing Act In Myanmar: Engaging With The Junta And Stepping Up Ties With The Government-In-Exile