Benefit Of Hindsight: Here's What Really Happened In Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh was supposed to a done deal for the Congress. Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel was confident. Or so he showed himself to be. Besides, even polling agencies with a good track record were only conceding that it was a closer fight than earlier anticipated but the winner of the contest would still be party of Bhupesh Baghel and Rahul Gandhi.

To be fair, it's not difficult to see why people were betting on the Congress to emerge as the winners in Chhattisgarh.

-One, the BJP had hit a nadir of a mere 33 per cent vote share and 15 seats (out of 90), in 2018. The Congress was at 43 per cent vote share and 68 seats. For the BJP to not only bridge that gap but take a lead over the Congress in 2023 was considered to be a task near-impossible.

-Two, the Baghel government was perceived to deliver well on some of its marquee welfare schemes, especially for farmers. This included loan waivers, a bonus payment over MSP to paddy cultivators and the recent subsidies under Rajiv Gandhi Kisan Nyay Yojana.

-Three, for much of the tenure of Baghel's chief-ministership, the state BJP leadership was unable to wrest the narrative from the Congress.

Yet, when the votes were counted today, the number was 54 for BJP and 36 for the Congress.

How did this turnaround come to be?

One, there was an undercurrent of disapproval and discontent against Baghel which was overlooked, intentionally or otherwise, by much of the media.

The discontent was partly driven by the fact that even as Baghel's administration focussed on welfare schemes, it was seen as completely neglecting the development of hard infrastructure. This tendency was earlier seen in the UPA I and II, where the government focussed specifically on handouts and infrastructure was ignored.

What was overlooked by the UPA then and the Baghel government now is that is the poorest of the citizens who are worst hit by poor infrastructure or its complete absence.

Additionally, the law and order in Chhattisgarh was also seen to be slipping under the watch of the Congress government.

Two, the BJP's strategy to focus on women-centric programmes and electoral planks.

One of the announcements of the BJP which reportedly caused a panic in the Congress camp was the promise of the Mahtari Vandan Yojana. Under this, all eligible married women in Chhattisgarh would receive Rs 1,000 every month from the government.

Reports suggested that in the run-up to the polls, the BJP had already registered 50 lakh women for the scheme through forms. In fact, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel had even asked the Election Commission to take cognisance of BJP cadre getting Mahtari Vandan forms filled by women. He alleged that this was a violation of the Model Code of Conduct.

The BJP showcased the Mahtari Vandan scheme as 'Modi ki guarantee'. The results are in the numbers.

Three, turnaround in tribal areas. There are 29 seats reserved for ST in the state. In the 2018 polls, the Congress claimed victory in 25 ST seats, and BJP held only 3.

However, this time, at the time of writing, the BJP secured a lead in 17 ST seats, while Congress could only lead in 12.

Apart from Chhattisgarh, ST-reserved seats have returned a favourable outcome for the BJP even in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

In Rajasthan, the count in ST seats in 2018 was 12 for Congress and nine for BJP. This time, it's 12 for BJP and 10 for Congress.

In Madhya Pradesh, in 2018, the Congress won 30 ST seats and the BJP only 16. This time, the BJP won 28 and the Congress 18.

The BJP's outreach to the Janjatiya community is not just limited to Chhattisgarh but is a pan-India project. Even for the Gujarat Assembly elections, the BJP had focussed especially on obtaining support from the tribal communities. PM Modi in fact had commenced his campaign from the tribal-dominated Valsad seat.

Four, the BJP's campaign and its planners.

Chhattisgarh 2023 can be seen as a triumph of the Chhattisgarh BJP cadre. Providing intellectual and organisational leadership to this cadre were three men deputed by the central BJP leadership to secure the state for the party: Union Minister Mansukh Mandaviya; Rajya Sabha MP Om Mathur; and Bihar MLA, Nitin Nabin.

Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya is being seen as the man primarily responsible for strategising the Congress' defeat in the state. He was appointed co-election in-charge of the state, along with Om Mathur. In his regular visits to the poll-bound Chhattisgarh, Mandaviya reportedly went to numerous parts of the state and sat through multiple meetings with workers.

Om Mathur has earlier served as state in-charge for Uttar Pradesh in 2017, when the party secured a mammoth three-fourths majority.

Even on 28 November, Mathur had said that BJP is "going to surprise the political pundits" with Chhattisgarh election results.

With the party headed for a victory in Chhattisgarh, he posted on X, "Asambhav kehte the sab, kar diya. (Everyone said it was impossible but it has been done)".

Nitin Nabin, BJP co-in-charge in Chhattisgarh, is a four-time MLA from Bihar's Bankipur. He has been the in-charge for the state for some years now and as per this report, had declared as long back as 2021 that the '23 election would witness a defeat of the Congress.