BMC, Odisha Poll Results Show BJP Firmly In The Driving Seat; Congress Looking At Worse Days Ahead

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections which had generated great excitement in political and media circles are rolling towards their logical conclusion. At the time of writing this column, the numbers are not yet final.

However, there are some unmistakable developments here for the politics of Mumbai and Maharashtra.

As far as Mumbai is concerned, the BJP has seen achieved more than a two-fold increase in its share of seats. To take on Shiv Sena in Mumbai – albeit without Balasaheb – and achieve the numbers that it has, is no mean feat, let alone while also fighting Congress and NCP. Congress and NCP have been reduced to the margins. Shiv Sena would have had a happy breakfast but a much more sombre lunch. They will have mixed feelings since they’re the largest party but only by a whisker. They won’t be able to go solo even in their erstwhile fortress of Mumbai where they have only added a few seats over their earlier tally.

Much to the chagrin of the media-academia complex, the Shiv Sena and BJP have come to occupy opposite poles in Mumbai, almost completely pushing out the others. This will, however, warm the hearts of the nationalist side who wouldn’t be too unhappy with brazen appeasers being reduced to the margins.

Looking at the overall Maharashtra scene, this is surely an endorsement of Devendra Fadnavis’ work ethic, and his emergence as a mass leader bodes well for the BJP in the state.

These results, it seems, are not isolated though. They follow a pattern which is being observed largely across the nation.

BJP – on an unprecedented upswing:

Narendra Modi’s big bang anti-corruption move of demonetization seems to have permanently altered the political playing field.

All over the nation, fortunes of the BJP seem to be on an upswing. They’ve consistently been making forays into hitherto uncharted territories or increasing their numbers in places they already have a presence. It is a no-brainer that notebandi – a move in which Narendra Modi staked his personal political capital – is paying rich political dividends. His increasing popularity indicates he’s seen as clean, willing to fight corruption and most importantly as someone who takes bold decisions – something that people in India have always liked in their leaders. His popularity is percolating even to municipal election levels and affecting outcomes.

Post his offensive on black money, headlined by notebandi, BJP has pulled off quite a few stunning rabbits out of its electoral hat.

• It added a striking 270 seats to their erstwhile tally from 2012 in the Odisha Panchayat polls. They moved from a mere 36 seats to 306 seats – almost an 8- fold jump. The BJD’s tally reduced by 191 while Congress’ tally was reduced by 60. This victory pretty clearly indicates Modi’s personal political capital reaping dividends because Odisha is not a typical BJP fortress with a vast cadre for a bottom-up surge to happen. Odisha, also known for its abject poverty, perhaps shows that the support for notebandi is strong from the economically weaker sections of society.
• In Chandigarh, BJP swept the city municipal election by winning 20 out of 26 seats.
• In Maharashtra, BJP was the single largest party in the municipal council and nagar panchayats with 1090 corporator seats and 64 council president seats making unprecedented gains over their earlier returns.
• BJP swept the local body polls in Gujarat with their tally of 107 seats out of 123 while the Congress was reduced to just 16 seats.
• By-polls for a few Assembly and LS constituencies also saw BJP gaining momentum in various states.

Congress-mukt Bharat?

The Congress party’s troubles started with being reduced to a mere 44 MPs in the Lok Sabha where in their full pomp they used to have more than 400 MPs at a time in history. If things couldn’t get worse than their abysmal tally, they’ve consistently lost ground to the BJP and regional parties, essentially making BJP emerge as the pole of electoral politics – a position once occupied by Congress itself.

Be it local body polls or state level polls, the Congress has seen a monumental reduction in its tally. This is due to a few reasons:

• Especially post notebandi, their political strategists have certainly floundered. With a Prime Minister famous for personal probity bringing such a move packaged as an anti-corruption measure, there was no way Congress could have come out looking good while opposing the move. Given their already colossal corruption CV, this move only cemented their image as the fountainhead of a brazenly dishonest polity they nursed over decades.
• Their absolute lack of political sense in comprehending what animates the young, despite having a ‘youth icon’ leading them was clear in the way they behaved in matters like surgical strikes or the JNU fracas. They miscalculated the amount of political capital they would lose by making Rahul spout statements like “khoon ki dalali”. When their leadership has been reduced to a joke – literally - among the masses, it is but natural that their fortunes are on the wane.
• The ground is shifting continuously in electoral battles where even in states like Bihar and UP, development and not purely caste considerations are being debated. Even self-proclaimed Luddite parties, like the Samajwadi Party, are being forced to talk about policy outcomes and the Mahagatbandhan victory in Bihar was partly due to the development angle and not just the social engineering impact. The Congress is unable to keep pace with such a shift. It is stuck in a mindset of royal dynasties appearing around election times while they recede to their palaces at all other times. Over-exposure to the electorate, the Congress needs to learn, is no more a disadvantage.
• Finally, enough has been said about the dismal lack of leadership from the top about which writing any more is a waste of space.

With the Narendra Modi-led BJP firmly growing beyond its traditional vote catchment areas due to a slew of welfare measures their star is only going to rise. The BJP is entrenching itself nationally, with obvious exceptions, as a pole around which elections are going to be fought and with regional outfits jostling for the opposition space, an already beleaguered Congress is probably in for worse days ahead. Watch out for 11 March.