BJP In Jharkhand: The Missteps That Cost It, Plus How The Party Can Make Amends Going Forward

Amidst the celebration of its massive victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also needs to deeply analyse the unprecedented setback it received in Jharkhand.

The party won only 21 out of the 68 seats it contested, whereas in 2019, it had secured 25 seats out of 79 — leading to a decline in its win-loss ratio. It may take solace in the fact that its vote share per seat increased, but it has a lot to build upon before the next assembly election.

The party needs to be pragmatic and realise that it did commit both strategic and operational mistakes.

Bangladeshi Issue Can Work

The BJP’s decision to raise the issue of illegal Bangladeshis was a noble move. It performed excellently in pre-election buildups through statements, reports, and memorandums.

Even during the election speeches, high-profile faces, including Champai Soren, a Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) turncoat, spoke about it.

However, the party made the strategic mistake of taking the issue to other regions of the state where locals could not relate to it much. The outlandish problem is that in the Santhal Pargana division, where the problem is grimmer, the BJP did not have enough ground mobilisation forces to convince the average tribal voter about it.

Most tribal voters live deep inside villages or up in the mountain tracts, where JMM workers are a more penetrative force.

Possibly due to its low cadre outreach, the BJP has not been able to grasp the psychology of the issue on the ground. In Jharkhand and nearby Bihar, the Hindu-Muslim issue does not work as a religious divide; instead, it is a caste divide. For context, the religious divide has more of a cultural angle than caste.

It is due to treating Muslims as a caste and hence not much separate from their culture that Bangladeshis can convince tribal girls to adopt their own religious culture. The phenomenon has transmuted into tribal and Muslim alignment — fuelled by both communities having their voices in the local cadre of the Indian National Inclusive Developmental (INDI) Alliance.

For the BJP, it is imperative to first overcome this psychological barrier. It must convince the tribals to view Bangladeshis not as one of their own with minor differences, but as fundamentally distinct in character.

However, its local leaders focused more on simply highlighting this issue to shield their individual failures rather than working on the ground.

Outsiders vs. Jharkhandis Is Reality Now

The BJP now has to grapple with the reality that more than two decades after its formation, the Jharkhandi identity is becoming an issue for locals. Various estimates suggest that Biharis, Bengalis, and people from Uttar Pradesh, among others whose forefathers came here for jobs, now constitute around 35 per cent of the state population.

While the prevailing narrative is that Jairam Mahato capitalised on this issue and sank the winning prospects for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it is equally true that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) also brought attention to the matter.

The JMM concentrated on portraying the BJP as a party of outsiders, a narrative unintentionally bolstered by the BJP’s emphasis on two key strategists — Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Himanta Biswa Sarma — both external to Jharkhand’s tribal landscape.

Babulal Marandi, the NDA’s top contender for the chief minister's post, was notably absent from the BJP’s rallies. Post-election, the JMM capitalized on this, accusing the BJP of disrespecting Marandi and his allies.

If there is any lesson the BJP can take from this debacle, it is that local leaders should be given their desired space.

Old Guards Are Not Effective Now

Besides Marandi, the BJP also had two big tribal leaders, namely Champai Soren and Arjun Munda. Soren and his son, Babulal Soren, contested from Kharsawan and Ghatsilla, with only senior Soren registering a victory. Arjun Musdnda’s wife, Meera Munda, also lost the Potka seat.

Geeta Koda, wife of Madhu Koda, was defeated by Congress’s Sona Ram Sukku by 7,383 votes.

These defeats carry a clear message for the BJP: it’s time to transition these leaders into mentorship roles. Marandi, once the party's stalwart in the state, is now 66, and Champai Soren is 68 — both likely have just one election cycle remaining.

Marandi’s leadership is now being questioned within the party ranks following the latest debacle. His track record includes losing critical bypolls and even the Scheduled Tribes seat in the previous Lok Sabha election.

On the other hand, Champai Soren is said to be not fully dedicated to his assigned role of securing Kolhan seats for the BJP.

Both leaders have committed to educating tribals about the demographic changes in the state, and the party may consider guiding them to mentor younger leaders for this cause.

Madhu Koda and Arjun Munda are also on the decline. Koda cannot contest elections himself, and his wife’s loss in Jagannathpur, his home seat, sends a clear message. Prior to this, Munda lost to Khunti in the Lok Sabha election as well.

The BJP can no longer afford to rely on leaders who have lost public trust. This recurring issue highlights the need for these leaders to either rebuild their credibility or focus on grooming new faces for the party.

Alliance Dilemma Of BJP

Choosing Sudesh Mahto’s All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP) as the biggest alliance partner was more of a redemptive attempt by the BJP than anything. AJSUP’s absence from the coalition was considered a major factor in the party losing the 2019 assembly elections.

Over the past five years, Mahto and the AJSUP failed to capture public attention, retreating into a comfortable shell. Sudesh Mahto's foreign trips and perceived expensive habits are seen by analysts as signs of waning interest in active politics.

But the party went ahead with the AJSUP and gave it 10 seats to contest, out of which it won only the Mandu seat, and that too by a thin margin of 231 votes. Sudesh himself lost from Silli.

In the wake of Jairam Mahato’s rise, this election is largely believed to be a death hammer for AJSUP and Sudesh Mahto’s politics. Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) returned with a better strike rate than the AJSUP.

JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar is widely regarded as the most influential leader of the Kurmi community. With Jairam Mahato also belonging to the Kurmi-Mahato group, allowing JD(U) room to grow could prove to be a strategic move.

The same applies to Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) — LJPRV — which secured the Chatra seat, reserved for Scheduled Castes, for the NDA. If Paswan harbors ambitions in state politics, the BJP might consider leveraging his appeal for SC-reserved constituencies.