Political Turmoil in Himachal Pradesh: Will Sukhu's Government Survive The Budget Session?

In an unexpected turn of events that has sent shockwaves through the political corridors of Himachal Pradesh, reports of cross-voting by nine Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) of the Congress for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) nominee during the Rajya Sabha elections have emerged. In fact, Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu himself stated to media persons that the BJP, with cover provided by Haryana police, had ‘taken away five-six’ of the Congress’ MLAs. 

This incident has sparked significant concern within the Congress-led state government, especially with the budget session looming on the horizon. Failure to pass the budget can trigger a political crisis, potentially leading to the downfall of the current government headed by Sukhu, a Congress party stalwart.

 This development comes against the backdrop of reported friction between the Himachal Pradesh Congress Committee (HPCC) president Pratibha Singh and Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu, laying bare the internal conflicts that have simmered within the state's political landscape. The cross-voting incident is being viewed as a manifestation of these underlying tensions.

Traditionally, a failure to pass the budget is seen as a loss of confidence in the government, potentially leading to its collapse. This principle underscores the critical nature of the budget session, not just as a fiscal exercise but as a test of political strength and unity.

For some time now, there has been talk of Vikramaditya Singh and Pratibha Singh being unhappy with a diminished role. The rather public congratulatory message for the Ram Mandir inauguration and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad tete-a-tete by Vikramaditya, the late former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh’s son, did not go unnoticed. Over the past year-and-a-half, he has been sharing cryptic posts on his social media account that seem to burnish a Hindutva credential for him, which also has not gone unnoticed with CM Sukhu’s supporters.

The coming days are set to be a litmus test for Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu's leadership and the Congress party's ability to rally its ranks and ensure the passage of the budget, thereby averting a potential governmental crisis. If it fails to do so, this may come as yet another demoralising event for the already jittery Congress before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections whose dates are going to be announced in a two-three weeks’ time. If the Congress government in Himachal collapses, it will not only make the BJP go more aggressive on its ‘abki paar 400 paar’ narrative but also create more tensions for Congress down south in the state of Karnataka.

Even more concerning is the fact that with the tension in Himachal, danger looms over the only Congress government in the entire ‘Hindi heartland’. The other two Congress governments – Karnataka and Telangana – are in southern states, and loss of government in the north can send a rather ominous signal for the party’s Lok Sabha prospects across northern India. 

The alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party across Haryana and Delhi have reduced the number of seats that the Congress could have contested in the first place, especially when the party stands on a sticky wicket when it comes to the four Lok Sabha seats from Himachal Pradesh. 2019 had been a rather shocking year for them, as the BJP managed to get more than two thirds of all the votes polled in the state while bagging all the four seats. Congress’ chances seem even more dented with this turn of events.

All eyes now will be on the Budget session and the run-up to it in the state. The BJP, buoyed by this turn of events, will certainly come forward to claim public support in its favour for the Lok Sabha contest. In contrast, the Congress stares at an abyss when it comes to both the Lok Sabha and the state government’s possible collapse. This is a rapidly evolving situation, and needs to be followed closely.