Quick Notes On The Upcoming Five State Elections

Five-state polls were announced on Monday, 9 October. Some opinion polls are coming out as well. Based on them and other assessments, I made a quick note to make sense of things.

Rajasthan

• — Clear anti-incumbency. 

• — “Trend sustenance” concept. The trend gets established early and sustains. (May be related to “confirmation bias”, but for sociologists to study)

• — BJP will win handsomely. That is why they were willing to experiment with not naming Raje as CM.

• — One-sided match. Will not follow keenly from now on. BJP at 140 plus.

Madhya Pradesh

• — No clear anti-incumbency. Currently 50:50.

• — In my opinion, most complicated state in India (more than UP). Kudos to people for living in harmony with such diversity.

• — Eight regions behave like eight little states. Have own idiosyncrasies.

• — Bhopal region, Bundelkhand (UP like) and Baghelkhand (strong Upper Caste presence) are BJP strongholds.

• — Congress has to win big in Mahakaushal and retain Chambal - their stronghold.

• — Malwa will be the deal. I think psephologists should make calls based on Malwa. Nimad and Narmada follow trends.

Chhattisgarh

• — Don’t believe the Congress wave. They definitely have a slight edge though.

• — Contrary to popular belief, the tribal votes did not desert BJP as much as that of OBCs in Durg, Raipur, Bilaspur regions in 2018.

• — Among OBCs, the largest - Sahus, feel let down by Congress. 

• — Ajit Jogi died in 2020. His party got around 8 per cent of vote, a majority of which is expected to come to BJP.

• — In 2018, around 30/90 seats won with a margin of less than 15,000 votes. Around 20/90 with less than 10,000 votes. So, close calls.

Telangana

• — Congress is on a blazing comeback. Seems surreal compared to June. 

• — Currently 50-50-20 for Congress-BRS-BJP. 

• — BJP might have miscalculated by organisational rejig. Good karma of BRS opposition now going to Congress.

• — BRS will brazen it out with 'money power' - Tamil Nadu style. 

• — Constituencies close to Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh borders, which are not BRS strongholds and mostly tribal hold the key.

• — Best bet for BJP is for BRS to win with small margin.

Mizoram

• — All 40 constituencies won with a margin of less than 2,500 votes. (Simple calculation: it will take two weeks to have a 5-minute one-to-one conversation with 2,500 people)

• — Congress has new leadership. ZPM under Lalduhoma (ex-Congress; Indira Gandhi’s personal security man) expected to gain. 

• — MNF (part of NDA) is in the lead. It has to be seen if it will clear majority. Close calls.

BIG PICTURE

• — No extrapolations to General Elections of 2024. Swings have become big and people much smarter

• — Since there are lot of close calls, ticket distribution will be they key. Will have to update analysis post ticket distribution of all parties.

• — If Congress pulls off an upset win in Telangana, it will be a big moral- and resource-booster (Hyderabad).

• — Caste census narrative will be tested.

• — 33 per cent of constituencies going to polls will be reserved, with more reserved for STs than for SCs. Will be a test of governance - labharthis, aspirational districts, improved law and order, etc. That learning is the only carry forward to Parliamentary elections.