Rajasthan Bypoll: As Congress Loses Deposit In Four Seats, Here Are Four Takeaways For The Party

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won five of the seven assembly seats in the Rajasthan bypoll 11 months after winning only one of them in the 2023 assembly election.

While this speaks clearly to the party's triumphant victory, a deeper analysis may be necessary to properly assess the state of the Congress party in Rajasthan.

After it won 70 seats in the 2023 assembly election, its highest tally while in opposition in the last three decades, and eight seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, a first since 2014, it was believed that the Congress stayed strong in Rajasthan.

This was even after prominent Rajasthan BJP leader and former chief minister (CM) Vasundhara Raje was sidelined, and a new face, Bhajan Lal Sharma, was appointed as CM. It was being assumed that, as a result, the Congress would find it easier to get back up in the state.

However, in the recent bypoll, the Congress not only lost the three seats of Deoli-Uniara, Jhunjhunu, and Ramgarh that the party earlier held to the BJP but also lost the security deposit in four of the seven constituencies in which it contested.

The most notable of the losses was Deoli-Uniara in Tonk district. The party had held this seat since 2018; this constituency also adjoins former deputy CM Sachin Pilot's Tonk constituency. Pilot, being a Gujjar, is believed to have considerable influence over the community in this region.

However, BJP's Gujjar candidate, Rajendra Gurjar, who had won in 2013, defeated the Congress candidate Kastoor Chand Meena, the aide of Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Member of Parliament (MP), Harish Meena, who had vacated the seat after winning in the Lok Sabha election.

It is believed that poor candidate selection and the absence of senior leaders like former CM Ashok Gehlot and Pilot, due to their involvement in the Maharashtra assembly election and other bypolls, led to such facepalm losses.

Though Pilot campaigned in Ramgarh, Dausa, and Deoli-Uniara, and Gehlot in Dausa and Deoli-Uniara, the Congress could only win Dausa. It lost its deposit in Deoli-Uniara as rebel Congress leader Naresh Meena, who contested as an Independent, was the runner-up with nearly 60,000 votes.

Similarly, in Khinwsar, instead of fielding Durg Singh Bhati, who got 42,000 votes in 2013 while contesting as a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate, the Congress fielded an unknown face in Ratan Chaudhary, who could get just 5,400 votes. So the Congress lost their deposit in Khinwsar, as Bhati joined the BJP after being denied a ticket by the Congress.

The other two seats where the Congress lost their deposit are Salumber in Udaipur and Chorasi in Dungarpur. Both the seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and benefit from the influence of former Congress ally Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP).

The BJP also managed to retain its Salumber seat by a margin of just 1,200 votes, while the BAP retained the Chorasi seat. The Congress was a distant third in both these seats.

We can, therefore, draw some conclusions about Rajasthan Congress after this bypoll.

1. Leadership: The state party unit does not have an active second line of leadership. When Gehlot and Pilot were occupied with other events, other leaders could not step in and ensure victories for the party, unlike in the BJP's case.

For the BJP, no senior leader from other states came in to campaign ahead of the Rajasthan bypoll. CM Sharma and Rajasthan BJP president Madan Rathore managed the campaign by themselves. Even Raje did not participate, yet the BJP managed to win.

2. Dynastic politics: The Congress fielded two dynasts, and both of them lost. Jhunjhunu was held by Congress MP Brijendra Singh Ola since 2008. He vacated it upon winning the Lok Sabha election. Yet his son Amit Ola lost there in his maiden election.

Similarly, Ramgarh had been held by Congress candidate Aryan Zubair's family since 2018. The seat was vacated after the death of Aryan's father, Zubair Khan. But even the sympathy wave could not help Aryan win his debut election.

These losses are telling the Congress that rather than finding political successors in leaders' heirs, it should encourage leaders who have worked on the ground.

3. Alliances: The Congress had allied with Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and was in an informal arrangement with the BAP for the Banswara seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. However, these alliances did not extend into the bypoll.

Yet, the Congress votes that went to these regional parties did not return to the grand old party's kitty. This shows the growing dependence of the Congress on smaller regional parties to defeat the BJP.

4. Factionalism: The losses are also a result of factionalism within Rajasthan Congress. While the state party unit managed to portray a united face after much effort in the 2023 assembly election, the mask fell off while sitting in opposition.

Even during the review meeting for bypoll losses, a scuffle broke out between the supporters of former minister Shanti Dhariwal and Prahlad Gunjal when the latter alleged that foul play led to the losses.

The Congress also could not convince its rebel candidates, like Naresh Meena, to withdraw their nomination. There were no joint campaigns by the party leaders, and due to factionalism, many star campaigners did not campaign. Thus the losses.