Rajasthan: What The Field Of Play Looks Like On Polling Eve

Saturday, 25 November, will see polling in Rajasthan. All 200 seats of the state will vote in a single-phase election.

The votes will be counted on 3 December.

Here's how the political field looks in the state on the eve of polling.

1. State has trend of changing governments every five years. Expected to stick to that trend. BJP likely to win comfortably.

2. Ashok Gehlot has never been able to return to power while being an incumbent chief minister. If Congress loses this election, that may be curtains for Gehlot's political career.

3. After 1998, the Congress has not crossed the count of 100 seats in Rajasthan.

5. When BJP wins a majority, it wins big. When it loses, it does so in a close contest.

6. In 2018, Congress with 39.8 per cent vote share got 99 seats and BJP with 39.3 per cent got 73 seats.

7. An approximate demographic breakdown of communities in Rajasthan looks like this:

-SCs: 18 per cent

-STs: 13 per cent

-Jats: 12 per cent

-Rajputs: 9 per cent

-Gujjars: 9 per cent

-Minas: 7 per cent

-Brahmins: 7 per cent

-Muslims: per cent

8. No one community can successfully project its electoral power across the rest of the state, because it is geographically restricted to sub regions. Jats in east; south dominated by tribals; north has higher concentrations of Dalits; Muslim vote concentrated in centre of the state.

9. Rajasthan also has a high number of 'Others', i.e. parties and candidates other than BJP and Congress. This century has seen the 'Others' getting at least 20 per cent of the vote in every Assembly election.

10. Both BJP and Congress fighting factionalism in their ranks.

11. Vasundhara Raje not projected as chief ministerial candidate and hence reported to be not pleased. However, BJP's decision to not project a CM face said to be coming out of its confidence that it will obtain a majority nonetheless.

12. Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot have had public differences over the past five years. Congress has not projected a CM face officially as well.

13. Number of 'freebie'/welfarist promises made by both Congress and BJP in their manifesto and election campaign.

14. Both sides also have to contend with rebel candidates in a number of seats.

15. BJP expected to win a majority.