Why Bihar Polls Are Crucial

The careers of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav at stake; Congress in danger of sliding further into anonymity in north India; and, an opportunity for Narendra Modi to deliver a win and wrest back the political narrative. 

There is a stack of political pressure, like the whirling column of a Kansas tornado, atop and upon the Modi government at present, that is greatly hindering its performance. The upcoming Bihar assembly elections however could change everything, both perceptually, and in hard political currency terms, if the BJP and its allies win.

An outright win here will put paid to the growing alignment of opposition forces who have been emboldened by a perceived hesitation, timidity, and drift on the part of Modi and his mostly inexperienced ministers. It will restore Narendra Modi’s own damaged aura and dented prestige, and put the NDA back on top.

In the event, the hopes of similarly winning the UP elections later will instantly brighten, and in turn make the probability of a second NDA term in 2019  look very likely.

And, as things stand today, there is more than a passable chance that this could happen. The crowds that have attended Modi’s rallies in Bihar have been massive. The ones at the Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav-Lalu Yadav and Sonia Gandhi jamboree, were far less impressive. It might account for the frequent loss of Nitish Kumar’s temper ever since.

The articulate and fiery Owaisi from Hyderabad deciding to have his party contest 25 seats in Muslim majority areas in Bihar will dent the Yadav-Muslim combine that Lalu Prasad has long represented. The Mahadalits, substantial in numbers and percentage of the total, have, of course, already left the fold along with their leader, Manjhi.

Bets are also being taken on how long the old rivals-turned-allies, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, will continue to pull together, rather than each other apart.

Modi has managed to set the agenda for the Bihar assembly elections once more in terms of his favourite plank of development, rather than traditional caste-and-creed Bihar politics. This, even though the ‘Mahadalit’ crowds have been prominent at his meetings.

Amit Shah, the BJP president, is taking no chances however, and is working very hard at the grassroot level in the ‘blocks’. The work started months in advance, this being his technique and organisational forte. Shah is wooing the old caste and religious sensitivities, in order to win this crucial election. After the debacle in Delhi at the hands of a political novice, Shah’s reputation and political future are at stake.

Amongst the upper storey atmospherics will probably be the announcement of a long-stuck rail locomotive plant going operative at last in Bihar and a substantial highway project likewise. Add to this the announcement, on Janmashtami, no less of OROP.

Congress, part of the Bihar plank trying to take on the BJP and the NDA, is obviously stung, and worried by the fact that Modi has pushed through OROP, retrospectively effective from July 2014. There are some aspects yet to be definitely ironed out, like the issue of revisions in rates, once in five years, instead of the two years hoped for by the veterans.

But, a one-man judicial commission has been set up and will look into such anomalies, lacunae, and grievances from affected servicemen.  

The main bulk of OROP, is however through, and should play very well in the Bihar elections as a huge demonstration of the government’s commitment to promises made, and to the armed forces.

Which resonates well also with the fact that Prime Minister Modi has committed a huge Bihar upliftment package at one of his recent rallies, that had Nitish Kumar scurrying to try and improve upon it from his chief minister’s table!  

Modi has succeeded in turning the contest on development of Bihar into a singular one-upmanship, and this has probably not been lost on the electorate. Also, as the days draw near to the election in October, there will be seen to be more cohesion certainly in the raft put together by the BJP and its allies than that of its rivals.

This is crucial to effect the best results in a winner-takes-all system like ours. The BJP needs this boost, having looked electorally vulnerable ever since its upset loss in Delhi to the AAP.  Arvind Kejriwal too has taken the opportunity to align himself and his party with Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), to try and move, once again, into the national arena. This is in line with his future ambitions, much beyond being CM of the restrictive ‘half-state’ of Delhi.

And like all major battles, the outcome will have serious consequences for the loser. For Nitish Kumar it could be curtains for his political career, and he will probably sink the JD(U) alongside. For Lalu Yadav, another attempt at a comeback, at being the power behind the throne, since he is personally debarred from standing for elections, will once again end in failure. And this Bihar election could, if won by the NDA, truly be the beginning of the end for Congress, led by its now decidedly uncertain and faltering first family.

Likewise, if the NDA loses, its woes, much too substantial in number already, will start to multiply. It is, after all, peculiar circumstances that have the majority NDA government on the backfoot. It has even been successfully stymied by the dimunitive rump of the Congress in the Lok Sabha, and by its relative but far from absolute dominance, in the Rajya Sabha.

Nevertheless two key economic bills have failed to pass while several lesser bits of legislation could not even be tabled. Modi himself, the government, the BJP/RSS, and their affiliates, even their NDA allies, in government and outside, who sometimes do not agree in public with the ruling party, are routinely pilloried by the media.

Industry, jobs, investment, innovation, continue to lag the expectations raised. The GDP, while it is on the upswing, and being hailed externally as the fastest growing in any major economy, is running below forecasts too. The foreign investor, both in the FII and FDI segments, is exasperated and disappointed by the government’s inability to push economic reforms and generally move faster. The stockmarket is sorely impacted too, though largely as a consequence of external factors, particularly the turbulence in China.

The BJP’s coalition government in high profile and sensitive J&K, a first for it, is having trouble governing. Accusations against the BJP chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as well as the Union External Affairs minister have tarnished its image.

The RSS Conclave released a dose of unctuous advice to the government. The opposition, well recovered from its drubbing last May, is busy trying to set the terms of reference.  In a reversal of all usual notions of a ‘responsible opposition’, it proudly tells the world that it has blocked the Land and GST Bills and prevented all debate and the functioning of parliament as a legislature. And this, with scant regard for the costs, both financial and constitutional, wearing black bands of belligerent protest on its sleeves instead.

The charismatic prime minister Modi, almost presidential in stature in the US manner, is likewise beleaguered domestically, while being feted and honoured abroad. His energetic diplomatic overtures have indeed been appreciated, but the catch from all the high profile interactions are still limited. What is undeniable is that India is being noticed internationally and seen to be both engaging and responsible.

Modi, despite all his detractors who are legion, is still very popular, after 15 months in office. He enjoys an almost ascetically incorruptible image, but seems enmeshed and trapped in a set of invisible but strong chains that keep him from functioning well. More than ever before in his political career, Modi is unable to garner any substantial credit for any of his government’s modest achievements, and almost none for its far-reaching initiatives.

The people who retain high regard for the prime minister, multiple polls indicate them to be well over 50% , think the NDA deserves more time to deliver before it is judged. Understandably, they say it is unreasonable to expect this government to do in 15 months what has not been done for at least a decade by the preceding UPA government.

But even this debate, has only come about because this government is seen to be on the defensive. That is why it is attacked, its vision pilloried as empty boasts, its inability to build consensus with a feral opposition, as its innate fascist tendency, ineptitude, and a character flaw, all rolled up together.

But since nothing succeeds like success, a win in Bihar will see Modi breaking free from his chains and this oppressive narrative. He will be restored to lead this country as the man of destiny the people chose in May 2014, and have just reaffirmed their faith in once again.