A bypoll is being held today (27 February) in the Erode East Assembly constituency, due to the death of the sitting MLA Thirumahan Evera.

Evera, who was from the Congress, had won the constituency in the 2021 Assembly elections as the candidate of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led alliance.

The main candidates in the bypoll are EVKS Elangovan of the Congress (the father of Evera), and KS Thennarasu of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

According to political commentators, bypolls in the state have mostly been won by the ruling party.

Electoral History

Erode East has seen three assembly elections before this bypoll, i.e., 2011, 2016 and 2021. Prior to 2011, it was part of the Erode Assembly constituency.

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance emerged victorious in 2011 and 2016.

While the 2011 election was won by VC Chandhirakumar of the Desiya Dravida Murpokku Kazhagam (DMDK), which was an ally of the AIADMK then, the 2016 election was won by KS Thennarasu of the AIADMK.

In 2021, Evera won against Yuvaraja M, of the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) who contested on behalf of the AIADMK-led alliance.

What Does The Vote Share Data Tell Us?

An analysis of the vote share data tells us that all elections in the constituency have been closely fought as the difference between the winner and runner-up has never been more than 8 per cent.

In 2011, the difference was 7.82 per cent, followed by 5.26 per cent in 2016 and 5.86 per cent in 2021.

2011 was the year in which the AIADMK won a record 203 seats under J Jayalalitha. In 2016, the AIADMK retained power in the state.

The difference in the number of votes received by the winner and runner-up was 10644 in 2011, followed by 7794 in 2016 and 8904 in 2021.

Performance Of Smaller Parties

Among the smaller parties, Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) were able to get a sizeable vote share, i.e., 6.98 per cent and 7.65 per cent respectively in the 2021 elections.

While the NTK is going alone once again, the MNM is supporting the Congress candidate, Elangovan.

The DMDK of Captain Vijayakanth is also contesting alone this time. The last time it contested alone, i.e., in 2016, it had garnered a vote share of 4.58 per cent.

The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) of TTV Dhinakaran are not supporting any candidate.

Role of the BJP

The BJP has contested the seat twice, when it was not in an alliance with the AIADMK. In 2011, it had a vote share of 2.38 per cent and in 2016, it improved it to 3.75 per cent.

However, its contribution to the vote share of the alliance is expected to be more now, given the rising stature of the party under the leadership of state president K Annamalai.

The BJP had won the Modakurichi constituency (one of the adjoining constituencies) in the 2021 Assembly elections in alliance with the AIADMK.

Also Read: Looking Back At The Highlights Of The Campaign As The Erode East Constituency Goes To Polls

AIADMK performance in Erode East

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