Nearly One In Five Hindus In Bengal Voted For Trinamool Last Year: Here's Why

There can be no gainsaying the fact that Hindus face a fair amount of discrimination and oppression in Bengal. 

The community has faced attacks all over Bengal at the hands of Islamists, curbs have been imposed on Hindu festivals, the appeasement of Muslims by the state machinery has translated into discrimination against Hindus, and Hindus find themselves relegated to the status of 'second-class citizens' in many parts of the state. 

But even after all this, a sizeable section of Hindus vote for the Trinamool.

Even in Muslim-majority areas of Bengal where Hindus are highly vulnerable to attacks and even displacement, a sizeable number of Hindus vote for Mamata Banerjee's party. 

The electoral statistics

Hindus form about 68 per cent of the 7.63 crore strong electorate of Bengal. That means that Hindu voters number a little over 5.19 crore. 

While the state’s overall voter turnout is about 80 per cent, the turnout of Hindu voters stands at about 65 per cent while the turnout among Muslims is between 90 per cent and 94 per cent. Thus, a little over 3.37 crore Hindus go to the polling stations to cast their votes. 

But less than a fifth of the Hindus who make it to the polling stations vote for the Trinamool. Statistics bear this out. 

Take the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP polled a little over 2.33 crore votes and its voteshare was 38.73 per cent.

It can be very safely assumed that all those who voted for the BJP were Hindus. The number of Muslims who voted for the BJP would be negligible. 

This means that the BJP received nearly 69 per cent of the Hindu vote (2.33 crore of 3.37 crore). 

Psephologists say that Hindu votes also made up for about 70 per cent of the 66.45 lakh votes cast in favour of the Congress and Left combine. That means 46.51 lakh Hindus (13.77 per cent of the total number of Hindus who exercised their franchise) voted for the Congress and Left.

Thus, nearly 2.79 crore Hindus--or 82.77 per cent of the Hindus who went to vote--supported the BJP or the Congress-Left combine. And that means that only 57.87 lakh Hindus, or 17.23 per cent of the Hindus who exercised their franchise, voted for the Trinamool Congress. 

What makes the Trinamool win, and decisively so, is the support of the Muslims who vote almost en masse for the ruling party. It is estimated that nearly 93 per cent of the Muslims who exercise their franchise vote for the Trinamool Congress. 

The Trinamool’s Hindu supporter

At the same time, the Trinamool also got nearly 58 lakh votes of the Hindu community last year during the Lok Sabha elections.

Why did 58 lakh electors from the Hindu community support a party whose government has been, at best, indifferent and, at worst, antagonistic towards their concerns? And who are they?

Swarajya took a deep dive and spoke to psephologists, political analysts and commentators, as well as functionaries of the BJP, Trinamool Congress, Congress and CPI(M) to figure out the profile of the Hindus who vote for Mamata Banerjee and her candidates. 

The Hindus who vote the Trinamool Congress can be roughly divided into two categories: 

(a) The poor in the periphery

b) The urban bhadralok

The poor in the rural and semi-urban areas

Bengal, despite data touted by the state government, is steeped in poverty and unemployment. Means of livelihood are not only very limited, but getting constricted due to falling agricultural income and paucity of jobs in industries and the service sector. 

The poor, especially in the rural and semi-urban areas, have to either migrate to other states in search of livelihood, or eke out a subsistence existence in the state. 

“Setting up a kiosk selling tea or fritters, or running a rickshaw or autorickshaw, getting a small space in a market to set up a fish stall, landing petty contracts and such become the only means of a livelihood that provides only a hand-to-mouth existence. And for all this, the poor are completely dependent on the largesse of the local Trinamool neta,” sociologist Amiya Basu told Swarajya. 

“I define Bengal’s economy as a chillar (loose change) economy. Most people in the rural areas and a substantial section in the urban areas make a pittance through small ‘enterprises’ or by operating rickshaws etc. The permission to set up a stall, illegally, by the roadside or operate a rickshaw or become a small supplier is granted by the Trinamool neta. So keeping the local Trinamool benefactor happy is crucial, and that’s why a large section of the poor vote for the Trinamool,” explained economist Kaushik Banerjee. 

Add to this, says Banerjee, the huge impact of the small doles like Lakshmir Bhandar (monthly doles to women), widow pension etc. “The amount of Rs 1,000 to Rs 12,000 that goes into the accounts of women and widows, or the annual Rs 1,000 to girl students, may appear small. But in a poor state like Bengal, it makes a huge difference to the lives of the poor who are, thus, obliged to vote for the Trinamool,” he said. 

Political analyst Kunal Sengupta, who teaches political science at Burdwan University, said that in the rural and semi-urban areas of the state, the writ of the local Trinamool neta runs supreme. 

“The local Trinamool neta issues a diktat to the people to vote for the Trinamool. Many defy it silently and surreptitiously once inside the polling booth, but many vulnerable people cannot muster the courage to do so. Especially in booths where Trinamool election agents, in collusion with polling staff (all state government employees), keep strict watch on the EVMs. And then there is massive rigging that also happens in Bengal,” Sengupta told Swarajya. 

The scale of rigging that goes on covertly inside polling booths in Bengal is unimaginable, said Debangshu Ghosh, a retired bureaucrat who had served as presiding officer inside polling stations in many parts of the state during his career. 

“Deployment of central forces does not make much of a difference at places where the opposition cannot depute strong polling agents of their own. The ruling party’s polling agents browbeat those of the opposition parties and, in collusion with polling staff who are school teachers or low-ranking government employees, rig the poll process. They accompany voters to the EVM enclosure or even vote on their behalf. This happens in rural and semi-urban areas. The Left Front started this when it was in power, and this continues under the Trinamool,” said Ghosh, a West Bengal Civil Service (WBCS) officer who retired as a deputy secretary. 

The point here is that such practices also allow the Trinamool to garner Hindu votes, or force vulnerable and poor Hindus to vote for the party. 

Many Hindus also exhibit, says Sengupta, the ‘Stockholm syndrome’. “They are victims of the Trinamool’s Muslim appeasement and are well aware that it is with the Trinamool’s blessings that Muslims are getting assertive and aggressive and targeting Hindus. But, very strangely, they vote for the Trinamool in the false belief that doing so would somehow make their abusers happy and buy peace,” explained Sengupta. 

The urban bhadralok

The urban middle-class and educated Bengali Hindu, broadly categorised as the bhadrolok, harbours an underlying antipathy towards the BJP. 

The bhadralok, till a decade ago, used to vote for the Left. In fact, allegiance or affiliation to the Left used to be worn as a badge of honour by the average bhadralok. 

But the ignominious fall of the Left has led to the disillusioned and grieving (over the Left being reduced to a marginal force in Bengal) bhadralok gravitate towards the Trinamool. 

“The bhadralok considers himself to be a bulwark against the BJP. He would have ideally voted for the Left, but knows the Left is too weak and insignificant and so does not want to waste his vote. That’s why he votes for the Trinamool,” said political scientist Debapratim Roy. 

“Most of the urban, middle-class and educated Bengali Hindus do not like Mamata Banerjee or other Trinamool leaders and hold them in low esteem. But they vote for the Trinamool because they dislike the BJP more than they dislike the Trinamool,” explained Roy. 

The bhadralok’s innate antipathy towards the BJP stems from what he views as the aggressive Hindutva policies of the party. “Brought up on a toxic diet of Lenin, Marx and Mao, the bhadralok is usually an atheist or a marginally practising Hindu who is staunchly secular and likes to proclaim himself to be a liberal. But he is also a hypocrite and will look away from or find excuses to explain away attacks on Hindus by Muslims. He has also bought into the narrative that the BJP is an ‘outsider’ (read: Hindi-belt) party,” Roy added.

Burdwan University’s Kunal Sengupta agreed. “The BJP is also to blame for creating this impression in the minds of the people of Bengal. The unnecessary ‘Jai Shree Ram’ slogans, the aggressive waving of saffron flags, the strong anti-Muslim pitch of some BJP leaders, the overwhelming presence of Hindi-belt leaders during election campaigns in Bengal etc has created this antipathy towards the BJP in the minds of the bhadralok,” said Sengupta. 

And that is why a section of the urban, educated, middle-class Bengali Hindu votes for the Trinamool. Their vote is not a pro-Trinamool vote, but an anti-BJP one, and cast with the motive of preventing the BJP from coming to power in the state.  

Incidentally, a large section of the non-Bengali Hindus also vote for the Trinamool. This is evident from the results of elections in urban constituencies like Bhabanipur, Rashbehari, Ballygunge, Chowringhee and Jorasanko in Kolkata which have a sizable number of non-Bengali Hindu voters. The Trinamool wins decisively from these seats. 

The support of the non-Bengali Hindu voter for the Trinamool is quite transactional, says sociologist Amiya Basu. 

“The non-Bengali Hindus are mostly business-class people. They are traders and have shops and industrial units, or are builders and contractors. Patronage of the ruling party is essential for the success of their businesses. So they vote for the Trinamool. Not out of love for that party, but out of love for the lucre. And they can’t be blamed for that. If the BJP emerges as a viable alternative, they will gladly vote for the BJP,” said Basu. 

The Trinamool’s bid to get more Hindu votes

Trinamool Congress chairperson Mamata Banerjee realises the danger in a further shift of the Bengali Hindu vote away from her party to the BJP. 

“Even a five percent shift in the Hindu vote away from the Trinamool to the BJP would spell disaster for her. Hence, she has started wooing the Hindus quite aggressively,” said Kunal Sengupta. 

The building of the Rs 250 crore Jagannath temple in Digha with funds from the state’s coffers is the pivot of her campaign to arrest the migration of Hindu votes away from her party. 

“Mamata Banerjee is very well aware that many Hindus are deeply unhappy with the attacks that Hindus are facing from Muslims. Hindus, especially in the rural and semi-urban areas, are alarmed over the growing assertion and aggression by Muslims who are becoming radicals. The rise of Islamism is causing deep concern for Hindus,” said former Calcutta University sociologist Kallol Kanti Bhattacharya. 

“But Mamata Banerjee cannot abandon her Muslim appeasement policies because the support of her Muslim vote bank is crucial to her electoral success. So she is also wooing the Hindus. The arrests of many Muslims accused in the riots at Shamsherganj recently is a signal to Hindus that she will enforce the rule of the law. She has also sent a strong message to Islamists that violation of the law will not be tolerated,” Bhattacharya told Swarajya. 

But, adds the veteran sociologist, it may be too late to win back the support of the Hindus. “The assertion and aggression by Muslims who are turning into radicals is a lived reality for a huge number of Hindus. Mamata Banerjee has let the genie of Islamism out of the bottle and there is no putting it back. Islamism is on the rise in Bengal, and that will only anger and distress more and more Hindus and turn them away from the Trinamool. Constructing a grand temple may not help win back support of the persecuted Hindus,” he added. 

But it is too early to say anything with certainty. The Trinamool will, certainly, make all-out attempts to arrest any further erosion of Hindu votes while the BJP will aggressively play up the attacks on Hindus to win over more Hindus.

Which pitch carries the day will decide the outcome of the Assembly elections a year from now.