Prime Minister Oli Has Reached A Dead-End, His Ouster Seems Imminent

Nepal’s embattled Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli seems to have brought himself to a dead-end. And Nepal’s political observers say it is only a matter of time before he is ousted from the top post.

After Tuesday’s meeting of the Nepal Communist Party’s Standing Committee where senior leaders demanded his resignation, moves are afoot to convene a meeting of the party’s parliamentary party and oust him from the prime minister’s post.

The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has 174 MPs in the Pratinidhi Sabha (the lower house of Parliament). Oli enjoys the support of around 83 MPs while those opposing him command the loyalty of 91 MPs.

The NCP leaders who want to oust Oli--party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal (all former Prime Ministers) and Bamdev Gautam (a former deputy PM)--are contemplating a meeting of the NCP parliamentary party.

If a resolution is passed at such a meeting calling upon Oli to step down as prime minister or expressing no-confidence on him, Oli will have no option other than quitting.

Sensing this, Oli called a meeting of his cabinet ministers and his loyalists (numbering about 18) in the 45-member Standing Committee at his official residence at Baluwatar on Wednesday (July 1) morning.

The ministers and NCP leaders are said to have discussed various strategies to save Oli. But it is learnt that no game plan could be finalised. According to sources in the anti-Oli camp, even some senior cabinet ministers obliquely criticised Oli at the meeting.

Some NCP standing committee members suggested that Oli step down as co-chair of the party to save his prime minister’s chair. Resigning from the party post may blunt the campaign that’s gaining momentum against him, they suggested.

However, stepping down from the co-chair’s post would mean allowing Dahal full control over the party. That is something Oli is loath to do since that also could pose a threat to him in future. Oli wants to retain control over the party as well.

Political observers say that if Oli remains adamant about retaining both the posts (NCP co-chair and PM), matters will come to a head. “If Dahal and other anti-Oli leaders convene a meeting of the parliamentary party and pass a resolution asking Oli to step down from the PM’s post, there is a distinct possibility of the party splitting,” said Narayan Thapa, a political commentator.

If the NCP splits, the faction led by Dahal and others can easily get support from other parties--the Nepali Congress and the Janata Samajbadi Party--to form the government. “These opposition parties are fierce critics of Oli and would prefer Dahal as Prime Minister. So they are likely to support Dahal in case of a split in communist ranks,” Thapa added.

The NCP was formed with a merger of Communist Party Of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) or CPN-UML led by Oli and the Communist Party Of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Dahal. That merger in October 2017 (it was formalised in May 2018) was facilitated by China.

Beijing also put its weight behind Oli and backed him for the PM’s post. Since then, Oli has been beholden to China and is viewed within Nepal as doing its bidding.

But Oli’s high-handed and unilateral style of functioning, his whimsical ways, lack of governance skills, propensity to sideline leaders of his own party and rub them the wrong way has triggered dissent within the party and widespread public disenchantment.

In order to stave off the threats to his posts, Oli played the nationalist card by spearheading the move to change Nepal’s map to include 335 square kilometers of Indian territory (comprising Kalapani, Limpiyadhura and Lipulekh).

That jingoism did gain him popular support and silenced his critics within his party, but only for a short while. Once the Parliament approved a constitutional amendment bill altering the map of Nepal in the country’s emblem to include Indian territory, the clock started ticking for Oli once again.

The party’s standing committee meeting that commenced last Wednesday (June 24) saw Oli and Dahal firing salvos at each other. Oli skipped the next session on Friday, triggering a barrage of criticism from his senior party colleagues.

But Oli seems to have inflicted the most damage on himself by attempting to play the ‘India card’ once again. On Sunday (June 28), Oli hurled wild allegations against India, accusing New Delhi of backing dissidence against him. He accused his party leaders who are opposing him of acting at India’s behest.

This incensed all those opposed to him and on Tuesday, Dahal and other NCP leaders who have been criticising Oli asked him to provide proof of his allegations or step down from both the posts of party co-chair and Prime Minister.

Oli met the country’s president Bidya Devi Bhandari on Tuesday to apprise her of the political situation in the country. Bhandari, a former vice-chairperson of Oli’s CPN-UML, can play a crucial role in a political flux created by a split in the NCP.

Bhandari shared a close rapport with Oli when she was an active politician till she became the country’s President in October 2015. Oli is said to be banking on her support. And also the support of Beijing, which has already activated its mission in Kathmandu to save Oli.

But given the fierce opposition to Oli from within the party and the fact that his detractors are in a majority in the standing committee as well as the parliamentary party, coupled with rising public discontent against him, Oli’s backers will find it very difficult to save him. More so since Oli seems to be digging his own grave.

It may, thus, only be a matter of time before Oli is ousted.