Swarajya Exclusive: Bangladesh Is Turning Into A Playground Of External Powers, And That’ll Have Adverse Consequences For India

Bangladesh under Mohammad Yunus is turning into a playground for a number of rival external forces. 

Dhaka’s growing proximity to Islamabad and Beijing, its outreach to Russia and the nod it has just given to the USA to use its territory to funnel military and other aid to rebels in the Rakhine and Chin states of Myanmar poses a grave security risk not only for the country, but also the entire Indian subcontinent. 

India, as Bangladesh’s neighbour, already has a deep interest in the country and views Dhaka’s dangerous flirtations with other powers as moves that could destabilise that country. 

Dhaka-Islamabad axis

Bangladesh has stepped up its engagements with Pakistan and the two countries are moving towards securing an informal defence pact. 

Two weeks ago, Pakistan foreign secretary Amna Baloch visited Dhaka for talks with Bangladeshi leaders. Those were the first Foreign Office Consultations (FOCs) between the two countries after more than 15 years. 

Baloch’s visit was to have paved the way for Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s visit to Bangladesh on April 27-28. But Dar cancelled his visit over fears of India executing retaliatory moves against Pakistan after the Pahalgam massacre. 

Yunus has already met Pakistan Prime MInister Shahbaz Sharif twice: once on the sidelines of the D-8 summit in Cairo in December last year and also on the sidelines of the 79th UNGA meeting in New York two months before that.

Military delegations from Pakistan have been visiting Bangladesh and the Pakistan’s defence attache in Dhaka, Brigadier Muhammad Imran Yousaf Choudry, has been visiting various army establishments in Bangladesh and holding frequent talks with senior Bangladesh Army officers. 

According to defence experts in Dhaka, the two countries are moving close to signing an informal defence pact. 

It is learnt that Chinese leaders encouraged Yunus during the latter’s visit to China in end March (March 26-29) to strengthen military ties with Pakistan. 

“That encouragement was made primarily keeping India in mind. Pakistan is a satellite state of China and if Bangladesh is lured into a loose defence pact with Pakistan, Beijing will have another close friend in India’s backyard that it can use to apply pressure on India,” retired Major General S.K. Singh told Swarajya. 

Information gathered by Swarajya from Indian intelligence agencies as well as sources in Bangladesh points to Bangladesh and Pakistan giving finishing touches to a draft defence pact. 

The proposed pact, said a senior research fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of International & Strategic Studies (a statutory institution under Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs), will provide Bangladesh a defence guarantee by ‘Pakistan and its allies’.

The senior research fellow who did not want to be named told Swarajya over phone from Dhaka: “The main objectives of the pact will be to establish very close coordination and ties between the armed forces of the two countries, joint exercises, transfer of technology and sale of arms and military hardware, and a defence guarantee”. 

What is of grave concern to India is that the pact will allow Pakistan’s notorious Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) a free run in Bangladesh under the guise of ‘technical and other cooperation’ with its Bangladeshi counterpart--the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). 

Bangladesh had, before Sheikh Hasina came to power, provided safe havens to militants of various rebel outfits of Northeast India and had allowed the ISI to train and arm the rebels. In fact, the ISI had even taken many militants belonging to these outfits to Pakistan and trained them there.

Another cause of concern for India is the clause in the proposed defence pact that ‘Pakistan and its allies’ would offer help to Bangladesh in the event of any threat to Bangladesh’s territorial integrity. 

“Pakistan’s allies means China,” the senior research fellow from the Bangladeshi think-tank said. Bangladesh, he added, had been unnerved by sections of Indian media and some Indian strategic experts with close ties to the government advocating the dismemberment of Bangladesh. 

“This clause in the proposed pact will result in Pakistan and China taking measures to protect Bangladesh in case of any external threat. While it may not mean direct military assistance in case of an external threat, this clause can mean our friends (Pakistan and China) initiating some measures on their own to counter or blunt the aggression,” said the senior research fellow. 

The proposed Bangladesh-Pakistan defence pact, it is learnt, is being pushed by Bangladesh’s foreign advisor (the de facto foreign minister) Mohammad Touhid Hossain.

Hossain is a foreign policy hawk and is known for his strong anti-India stance as well as his passionate advocacy for close ties with Pakistan. 

Mohammad Yunus is also an advocate for closer ties with Pakistan. Yunus depends on crucial support from Bangladesh’s Islamists who look up to Pakistan and have intimate ties with Islamist and terror groups in Pakistan. 

Nod to US for using Bangladesh to send aid to Myanmar rebels

Bangladesh has okayed a US proposal to allow its territory to send aid, including military aid, to rebels in the Chin and Rakhine provinces who have scored stunning victories in their fight with Myanmar’s junta. 

The Chin and Rakhine rebels now control most of their provinces, but the junta is holding out in the major urban centres--Rakhine’s capital Sittwe as well as the important port city of Kyaukphyu, and Chin state’s capital Hakha and the three other towns there. 

Also, with the Myanmarese junta blocking roads and highways and bombing villages, thus displacing tens of thousands of people, Chin and Rakhine provinces are facing an acute shortage of food, fuel and medicines. 

The USA is keen on not only deposing the junta and bringing the junta leaders to justice for crimes against Myanmarese citizens, but also containing China’s deepening presence in Myanmar. 

China has developed a deep sea port at Kyaukphyu and also a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) there as part of its ‘Belt & Road Initiative’. China is also implementing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) to connect Kyaukphyu to its own southwestern Yunnan province. 

The CMEC will provide China quick access to the Indian Ocean. China plans to construct pipelines to transport oil and gas from Kyaukphyu to its landlocked southwestern and central provinces. 

Beijing is crucially dependent on the junta, which it has steadfastly supported, for the execution of these projects. Of course, China also plays a double game by supporting the rebels as well, but it is mostly the rebels in Myanmar’s Kachin and Shan provinces that Beijing has close ties with. 

The USA reckons that if the Rakhine and Chin rebels defeat the junta forces in their respective provinces, that will deal a debilitating blow to Chinese interests in Rakhine state. And defeat of junta forces in these two provinces will also hasten the downfall of the military regime in Myanmar. 

That is why Washington applied pressure on Dhaka to provide a corridor through Bangladesh to funnel military aid to the rebels and fuel, food and medicines to the people of the restive provinces in Myanmar. 

Bangladesh has facilitated a meeting recently between US officials and leaders of the United League of Arakan (ULA) and the Chin National Council (CNC) in Dhaka. 

According to sources in Bangladesh, three US officials--Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US State Department’s Bureau of East Asian & Pacific Affairs Andrew R Herrup, Deputy Assistant Secretary in US State Department’s Bureau of South & Central Asian Affairs Nicole Chulick and US Charge d’Affaires in Myanmar Susan N. Stevenson--flew into Dhaka and held close consultations with the ULA and CNC leaders and also the top leadership of Bangladesh. 

Bangladesh, it is learnt, has agreed to allow the use of Cox’s Bazar port for unloading military hardware and other aid for the Myanmarese rebels. This aid will then be transported to Silkhali, about 55 kilometres south of Cox’s Bazar. 

Silkhali is just about ten kilometres away from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and provides a very safe and quick channel to route aid to the Arakan Army. 

The Bangladesh Army’s field firing range is located in the area and can provide good cover to convoys of arms and other aid moving into Rakhine province. The Cox’s Bazar airport is also being upgraded for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations. 

UAVs from this airport will also provide cover to US aid convoys and also help the Arakan Army in its fight against the junta forces. 

The Bangladesh Army’s 10th and 24th Infantry Divisions in Chittagong will facilitate the logistics for transferring aid to the Myanmar rebels, but will not provide any aid directly to the rebels. 

However, some security experts in Bangladesh are gravely worried over this development and feel that Bangladesh risks going the way of Pakistan which became a conduit for US aid to Afghan resistance fighters battling Soviet forces from the early 1980s. 

“The US started routing arms and aid to the Afghan rebels through Pakistan. Pakistan also started harbouring and training the Afghan rebels and that is what led to the birth of Islamic terror groups like the Taliban and al Qaeda. Pakistan did all that for the lure of US dollars, but coming into Washington’s bear hug has proved very costly for Pakistan,” explained retired Brigadier General Shamsul Haque, a security affairs analyst based in Dhaka. 

“Bangladesh will not be able to resist US pressure to provide shelter to the Arakan and Chin rebels, and even training camps may come up in Silkhali and other areas close to the border with Bangladesh. Sooner or later, the Bangladesh Army will also get involved. Another element there is the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the presence of over ten lakh Rohingya refugees lodged in camps in Cox’s Bazar. We are courting serious trouble by acquiescing to US pressure,” said the retired Bangladeshi army officer. 

Enhanced engagements with China and Russia

Dhaka has also stepped up its engagements with Beijing and Moscow since the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus took over the reins of the country. 

After Yunus’ visit to China, Bangladesh has moved to forge close ties with China. A number of bilateral visits are on the cards and the two sides are learnt to be working on a slew of agreements in the fields of infrastructure, education, people-to-people contacts, defence and trade. 

“China’s footprints in Bangladesh are set to increase exponentially. We have learnt that China is offering many infrastructure projects, technical and physical aid in river management, enhanced defence cooperation including supply of arms as well as training and joint exercises, cultural exchanges, close links between universities and other institutions in the two countries and is offering to host thousands of Bangladeshi students, academics, professionals, politicians and journalists every year,” a senior functionary at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace & Security Studies, an independent think-tank, who did not want to be named told Swarajya. 

Bangladesh is also stepping up its engagements with Russia. Bangladesh army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman made a rare visit to Moscow earlier this month.

During his four-day visit to Russia, the Bangladesh army chief held talks with both the civilian and military leadership of the country. The two sides discussed enhanced military cooperation and also explored areas like scientific research and trade where the two countries could step up mutual cooperation. 

“Apart from exploring the possibility of purchasing military hardware from Russia, General Waker-uz-Zaman also discussed cooperation in training and holding joint exercises between the armed forces of the two countries. The prospects of enhancing trade, cultural and other ties and establishing close linkages between institutions and peoples of the two countries was also discussed,” a senior Bangladesh Army officer who read a report prepared by the Army chief’s staff after his visit to Russia told Swarajya from Dhaka. 

The Bangladesh army chief’s visit to Moscow was followed closely with three Russian warships from a squadron of Russia’s Pacific fleet docking at Chittagong port. 

The three warships--destroyers ‘Admiral Tributs’ and ‘Admiral Panteleyev’, and the oceanic tanker ‘Pechenga’--were received warmly by Bangladesh’s naval establishment. 

This was the first visit by Russian naval vessels to Bangladesh after more than 50 years. Russian mine detection vessels and mines countermeasures vessels had visited Chittagong port soon after Bangladesh gained independence in 1971 to clear that port of mines planted by West Pakistan’s navy. 

The mines sank many ships of the newly-independent country and cost many lives. The Russian offer to clear the mines was gladly accepted by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the country’s first Prime Minister, at that time. 

But since then, there have been scarce contacts between Russia and Bangladesh. Dhaka, it is learnt, is keen to reduce its over-dependence on Chinese military hardware and is looking at Russia for arms purchases. 

Bangladesh is the second-largest importer of Chinese arms after Pakistan. Over the last five years, Bangladesh sourced 72 per cent of its arms purchases from China. Bangladesh paid out US$ 2.59 billion to China for defence purchases from China 2010 and 2019.

Russia is a major arms supplier to Myanmar, something that is not liked by the Chinese. Bangladesh’s overtures to Russia could also upset China. 

However, these overtures (to Russia) have India’s active encouragement. India and Russia have close defence and other ties. 

In fact, the three Russian warships which docked at Chittagong had participated in INDRA-2025, a joint Indo-Russian naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal from March 28 to April 2. 

Closer defence and other ties between Russia and Bangladesh will be welcomed by India since that would serve to limit China’s presence in and influence over Bangladesh. 

However, India will not be very comfortable with a major power, even if it is a friendly one, gaining a foothold in what India considers to be its own backyard and which, feels India, should remain its exclusive preserve. 

The prospect of an unstable Bangladesh

Apart from allowing its territory to become a playground for Pakistan, China, USA and Russia, the new dispensation in Dhaka has also stepped up its engagements with Turkiye. 

Turkiye has, in recent years, become a close ally of Pakistan and has been siding with Islamabad in its verbal attacks on India over Kashmir. 

Dhaka’s courtship of Ankara is primarily based on the premise that a country that has somewhat adversarial ties with India will be its (Bangladesh’s) friend. 

Turkiye has supplied field guns and anti-tank guided missiles to Bangladesh. Turkiye is also planning to supply UAVs to Bangladesh. 

The danger is that with so many countries, three of them global powers (USA, China and Russia), with competing and conflicting interests making Bangladesh their playfield, the South Asian nation risks the prospects of becoming unstable. 

“The current leadership of Bangladesh, especially the leaders of the Anti-Discrimination Students’ Movement which led the uprising that unseated Sheikh Hasina from power, is not mature and sagacious enough to deftly handle and fend off pressures from external powers. The country is in the grip of Islamists. In this scenario, allowing the three major global powers and also Pakistan to deepen their interests in Bangladesh is suicidal,” said the functionary from Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies. 

“Due to the wide-ranging purges carried out by the new dispensation, our foreign policy and strategic affairs establishments have considerably weakened. A lot of talent has left and so we lack the expertise now to balance the interests of external powers while protecting our own interests. That requires a lot of dexterity and expertise, and we are lacking in that now,” he added. 

Others in Bangladesh, as well as in India’s security and foreign affairs establishments, concur. “Bangladesh is playing with fire now, and it does not have the expertise or the sagacity to balance so many competing and conflicting interests. There is a real danger of Bangladesh becoming highly unstable,” said a former Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer. 

This IFS officer, who retired from a senior position in India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) recently, told Swarajya that Bangladesh’s political parties, civil society, non-governmental organisations and society as a whole can get deeply fractured with China, Pakistan, USA, Russia and Turkiye being allowed to develop deep interests in the country. 

“China, for instance, will try to sabotage US plans to provide aid to Chin and Arakan rebels by propping up a few groups within Bangladesh. The China-backed groups will attempt to subvert US supply lines to the Myanmarese rebels. The US will put pressure on Dhaka to contain these groups, and the country’s police, paramilitary and armed forces will then have to act. But China also has its deep links with powerful elements in Bangladesh’s armed forces and they will resist operations against the China-backed saboteurs. That will create dangerous fissures,” the retired MEA officer explained. 

Similarly, he added, Beijing-friendly forces in Bangladesh’s political, bureaucratic, security, academic and other establishments will resist closer ties with Russia. Russia will counter them by cultivating its own interests in Bangladesh. 

“Pakistan will have its own agenda in Bangladesh, and that will not align with the USA’s agenda and may also run counter to Russian interests,” he pointed out. 

India, of course, has deep interests in Bangladesh and despite the change of regime, has many supporters embedded in the country’s security and foreign policy establishments as well as  Bangladesh’s civil society. 

“All countries face such conflicting interests of external powers and manage them. But the current leadership in Bangladesh lacks the experience, sophistication and wisdom to balance all these interests with sagacity and dexterity. Bangladesh thus runs the grave risk of being plunged into turmoil. A destabilised country in India’s immediate neighbourhood will become a real headache for India,” said the former IFS officer. 

Bangladesh, thus, faces the imminent prospect of degenerating into another Afghanistan or Pakistan. And that means another lawless and aversarial frontier for India to manage.