Yunus Plans To Play An April Fool’s Joke On Bangladesh? Critics Say He Has No Intentions Of Holding Parliamentary Polls Soon

The head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Mohammad Yunus, announced earlier this month that the contentious parliamentary elections will be held in the first half of April next year. 

Most of the political parties in the country as well as the army have been demanding that elections be held by this year-end. 

Yunus, who was installed as the head of an interim government on August 8 last year after the Awami League (AL) government led by Sheikh Hasina collapsed after a popular uprising, has been holding off on his initial promise of conducting early elections. 

Yunus, and his ‘advisors’ (the de facto ministers), especially the leaders of the Anti-Discrimination Students’ Movement (ADSM) which spearheaded last year’s protests against the AL regime, maintain that it is important to carry out reforms and bring those responsible for killings of protestors last year to justice before conducting elections. 

Eleven reform commissions, the most prominent ones being on the country’s constitution, electoral system, judiciary, media, administration, police and to eliminate corruption, were set up last year. 

Of all these commissions, the National Consensus Commission tasked with formulating a ‘July Charter’ to enshrine the principles of the ‘July revolution’ (as last year’s uprising is called) is the most contentious. 

Yunus and others in the interim government argue that holding elections without implementing key reforms—and without bringing to justice those accused in killings during the past 15 years of AL rule, including Sheikh Hasina, former ministers, and party functionaries—would be meaningless.

The Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamist parties, as well as the newly formed Jatiyo Nagorik Party (formed by leaders of the ADSM with Yunus’ blessings), have been supporting Yunus on his ‘reforms and justice before elections’ stance.

But the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and many other political parties have been demanding that Yunus announce a roadmap for the elections that should be held before the end of this year. 

Late last month, Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman lent his weight behind the demands for early elections when he told his senior colleagues that parliamentary polls should be held by December. 

The BNP announced plans to stage massive protests across the country if Yunus does not announce a roadmap to elections in December. 

There have also been protests by government employees and people over a complete breakdown of the law and order situation, spiralling prices, economic downturn, labour issues and a host of other problems that the country is currently facing. 

Yunus feared that widespread anger over his government’s many failures would coalesce into a massive movement demanding early elections in the country. In order to stave this off, he announced 6 June that elections would be held in the first half of April next year. 

But that announcement, say many in Bangladesh, was made by Yunus just to buy time. He has no intentions of holding elections and relinquishing power despite all his protestations and proclamations to the contrary. 

The indications that Yunus will not keep his promise

Jingoism: While making this announcement, Yunus made a bid to rally support by stating that “Bangladesh is in a state of war”. 

“The deposed fascist government and its domestic and international supporters are trying to derail the efforts to establish a new Bangladesh that has come up after the July uprising. They will try to re-establish their control over Bangladesh. The defeated power and their supporters are waiting to strike at us again. We are in a state of war and therefore we must remain united,” Yunus had said while making the announcement. 

“Statements like this are designed to trigger nationalist sentiments. By raising the false bogey of Bangladesh being in danger from internal and external forces, Yunus is trying to gain public sympathy and support. ‘Bangladesh in a state of war’ translates into a national emergency-like situation and an appeal to people to forget everything and support him. It is meant to perpetuate himself in power,” said BNP joint general secretary Ruhul Kabir Rizvi. 

“By indulging in unwarranted jingoism, Yunus has revealed his true intentions. He raised the bogey that the nation is in danger, and so the entire country should unite behind him and strengthen his hands so that he can fight off the internal and external threats that he is falsely hoisting. The underlying intention behind this is to put off elections and stay in power as long as possible,” a senior Awami League leader who is now in exile in India told Swarajya. .

Many others agree with this assessment. “Yunus has shown no signs of giving up power. Had that been his intention, he would have announced a firm roadmap for holding elections last year itself. Now that he has raised this bogey of Bangladesh being in danger, his true intentions have been revealed,” journalist Shahidul Alam, who has been hounded out of the country for his independent stand, told Swarajya.  

Plan to create tensions with India: Yunus has been trying to racket up tensions with India by making anti-India noises. 

His open courtship of Pakistan and statements about landlocked Northeast India being dependent on Bangladesh for access to the Bay of Bengal, his attempts to play off India against China, and many other ‘unfriendly’ acts are designed to provoke India. 

Yunus’ plot to get the Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) to act aggressively and trigger limited border skirmishes with India (read this) was foiled by army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman.   

However, an undeterred Yunus is pushing for ratcheting tensions with India in order to rally public support. 

“That is the best way for him (Yunus) to continue in power. Provoke India through indiscreet acts and statements and once India reacts, indulge in jingoism, trigger hyper-nationalism and create a situation where elections are not possible or desirable. Elections cannot be held in an emergency-like situation due to tensions with a big neighbour running high. Yunus wants to create an emergency-like situation,” said Jatiya Party chairman Ghulam Muhammed Qader. 

Qader’s assessment is shared by the BNP and other parties. “This assessment is fully correct. Yunus is intentionally provoking tensions with India to strengthen his grip on power. He is power-hungry and unscrupulous,” Bangladesh Communist Party leader Jahangir Sajid told Swarajya. 

Orchestrating support to continue in power: Many prominent figures in the interim government like ‘home advisor’ (the de facto home minister) retired Lieutenant General Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, Syeda Rizwana Hasan (environment ‘advisor’), Sarjis Alam (a close confidante of Yunus and a leader of the Jatiyo Nagorik Party) and others have publicly said that Yunus should continue for at least five years. 

Last month, after the army chief demanded that elections be held by this year-end, and in the face of rising anger against the interim government, Yunus staged a resignation drama. 

He said he would like to step down from power. His coterie immediately rallied behind him and, with the help of the Jamaat and Islamist forces, staged a show of support. 

At that stage-managed show of public support in Dhaka, many demanded that the interim government under Yunus should stay in power for at least five years to cleanse the entire system. 

The home ‘advisor’ (Chowdhury) had said during a visit to Sylhet in mid-April that “people are asking us to stay in power for five years” (read this). 

Sarjis Alam said last month that “a statesman like Yunus should run the country for at least five years”. 

Environment ‘advisor’ Hasan, while reacting to the army chief’s statement that elections should be held by this year-end, said: “People of Bangladesh haven’t put us here only to conduct elections, but to carry out reforms and ensure delivery of justice to the victims of fascism”. 

Others in Yunus’s close quarters have also made similar statements. 

“Yunus, tellingly, did not oppose those calls or discourage members of his coterie from speaking about continuing in power for five years,” said Jatiya Party leader Masroor Mawla. The Jatiya Party, which was once an ally of the Awami League, has been facing attacks and persecution from the current regime. 

“Yunus’s loud silence on these demands to stay in power for five years tells us that he supports such sentiments and actually wants to continue in power without holding elections. Had he been serious about holding elections and honest in his intentions, he should have opposed such statements,” said BNP spokesperson Salahuddin Ahmed. 

Another telling incident happened when Yunus was walking out of the Baitul Mukarram National Mosque in Dhaka after Eid prayers last week. A middle-aged man in the crowd shouted out to Yunus that he should not pay heed to ‘dalals’ (agents or brokers) demanding early elections and stay in power for five years. 

A video clip of this went viral, and it was then shared by Yunus’ press secretary Shafiqul Alam. “Alam would never have shared this clip without the express consent of Yunus,” senior journalist Subir Bhaumik who was the editor of a popular news portal in Bangladesh told Swarajya. 

“Everything depends on the will of the people of Bangladesh. If they want Yunus to continue, then that will happen. There are many who feel that elections should be held only after the necessary reforms and Yunus is the best person to oversee these reforms. We have to respect the wishes and sentiments of the people and act accordingly,” said youth & sports advisor Asif Mahmud. 

“All this indicates that Yunus will not hold elections and wants to continue in power,” said BNP’s Rizvi. 

The timing of the elections: Early April is a bad time to hold elections in Bangladesh. That’s because the coastal country experiences severe cyclones that often cause widespread inundation and devastation. April also marks the onset of the intense summer season in the country. 

“Many important examinations, including the secondary school certificate examinations (for Class 10 students), are held in early April. Those exams cannot be held in the midst of elections,” said senior BMP leader Mirza Fakrul Islam Alamgir. 

“Ramzan, the month of fasting, will end sometime around March 20 next year. If elections are slated for early April, politicians and cadres will have to campaign while observing Ramzan, fasting the whole day and observing other mandatory rituals. That's impractical and it will face a lot of opposition. Yunus may use that as an excuse and postpone elections indefinitely,” said BNP standing committee member Nazrul Islam Khan. 

Yunus’ gameplan

Yunus, say leaders of the BNP, AL and Jatiya Party as well as political commentators and journalists in Bangladesh, has no intention of holding elections even by April next year. 

“He will make fresh attempts to ratchet up tensions with India and strengthen the narrative that the country is under threat from India which supports the Awami League. He will then say he needs to continue in power to steer the country out of the difficult situation,” said Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader.

Yunus will also get the Jamaat, the Jatiyo Nagorik Party (also called the king’s party because it was formed with his blessings), Islamists and others to demand the announcement of the ‘July Charter’ before the elections. 

The ‘July Charter’--a proposed set of proclamations to reflect the sentiments of last year’s uprising--is contentious and still a work in progress. 

Yunus set up a ‘national consensus commission’ to frame this charter after consultations with all political parties, civil society activists and all stakeholders of the country. He has been asserting that the charter should be based on complete consensus among all the stake-holders, especially the political parties. 

However, the commission has not been able to evolve a consensus because of the contentious and controversial nature of some proposals. 

The primary among the contentious proposals are junking the 1972 Constitution of the country, giving precedence to the 2024 uprising over the 1971 Liberation War, setting a two-term limit for the Prime Minister, restricting the powers of the Prime Minister and investing more power with the President, having an independent judiciary with judges being appointed by a committee comprising representatives of all political parties and eminent citizens, having an independent oversight commission for the police and security forces and ‘genuine parliamentary representation”. 

The BNP, Jatiya Party, Bangladesh Communist Party and most other political parties are opposed to these proposals that are being pushed by the ADSM leaders, the ‘king’s party’, and the Jamaat. 

Yunus has repeatedly said that the July Charter has to be consensus-driven and will precede national elections. 

“Yunus has said this very cleverly knowing fully well that there can be no consensus on some of the controversial proposals that his coterie is advocating. Most importantly, the spirit of the 1971 Liberation War cannot be eroded and the 2024 movement against the Awami League regime cannot be even equated, leave alone given precedence, over the 1971 War. So he’ll use the lack of consensus over the July Charter to hold off elections,” said BNP standing committee member Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku. 

That is why, says the BNP and other parties, only urgent reforms need to be carried out now and the rest left to a democratically elected government and the Parliament. 

“An unelected government which has no constitutional basis and is not answerable to the people simply does not have the mandate to carry out important reforms. It is the Jatiya Sansad (Bangladesh’s Parliament) which alone has the power to carry out reforms. Yunus should realise this and hold elections to pave the way for a democratically elected government to come to power,” said BNP secretary general Mirza Fakrul Islam Alamgir. 

But Yunus and others in the interim government disagree. “The interim government was formed to carry out important reforms that will ensure a truly representative democracy so that another fascist regime cannot come to power. If we fail to do that, we shall be betraying the trust that the people of Bangladesh have reposed in us,” Yunus said last month. 

This, say political observers and journalists in Bangladesh, is a sure and strong indicator that Yunus will not hold elections anytime in the near future. He will use this “imaginary mandate” (of carrying out reforms) to postpone elections, said BNP’s Rizvi. 

The BNP says it will launch an intense country-wide agitation if Yunus does not hold elections soon. 

But this very agitation--the widespread disruptions it will trigger--can be used by Yunus and his coterie to argue that internal turmoil in the country mars a conducive climate required to hold elections. 

Yunus will also cite the lack of progress on providing justice for the killings and other alleged atrocities perpetrated by the Awami League to postpone elections. 

“Yunus and his colleagues in the interim government have repeatedly said that justice needs to be provided to all the victims of Awami League’s killings, forced disappearances, tortures, repression and other illegal acts before fresh parliamentary elections are held. We also fully support, but don’t want it linked to elections,” said BNP secretary general Alamgir.

Yunus will argue that since Sheikh Hasina and many other AL leaders as well as important functionaries of the AL government are in exile and unavailable, they cannot be brought to justice. 

Hence, till the time they are brought back and tried in courts in Bangladesh for their alleged crimes, justice will elude their victims. And so elections cannot be held till justice is provided to the victims.   

Yunus, say BNP leaders and others, has some aces up the sleeves of his trademark loose kurta.