Himachal Pradesh Elections 2022: The Rebel Factor

Much is being talked about in the mainstream New Delhi media circles about the rebellion headache of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state of Himachal Pradesh.

This is kind of amusing, given how it has been the Congress that has bled leaders of stature within the state since Pratibha Singh, the wife of bereaved Virbhadra Singh, took over. However, the doubt may be considered as one which has past precedents to back it.

The Enigma of Himachal Politics - the Rebel Factor

Rebel candidates have always been a hobbling factor for both the Congress and the BJP in the state of Himachal Pradesh. In a state with small margins of victory, any vote cutter is a problem.

The legacy of the rebel voter is probably a hangover from the third front alternative politics that had a somewhat strong presence in the nineteen eighties when former rebel Congressmen like Thakur Ram Lal had a say.

This was also seen in the nineties, with the beleaguered Pandit Sukh Ram who was caught with crores of cash in his ancestral home and his Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) having a strong show in Mandi, causing a hung assembly.

As a result of this third front/rebel led electoral candidates, the victory margin was essentially swinging within a margin of approximately five percentage points (table 1). 

Table 1: Past Elections Have Been Essentially Determined by a Margin of Five Percentage Points

A large part of it, however, has much to do with a factor that is now a bit of a rarity in Indian politics.

At the local, assembly segment level, the candidate matters much more than the party. It is that factor that makes many aspirants make extensive efforts to reach out to voters, so that their popularity can increase.

However, on not getting tickets, often such candidates end up as rebel candidates, and cut votes. This played out in 2012, when the BJP lost badly.

At that time, Kullu’s scion and BJP leader Maheshwar Singh had formed his own party, the Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) after being denied the ticket. This cost badly, as was seen in the eventual result for that year.

Given their old traditional strongholds, the impact of rebel candidates is significantly greater for the BJP in the lower Himachal region and the Congress in the upper Himachal region.

There have been notable examples for that. Virbhadra Singh had lost out to Thakur Ram Lal in 1990 in Jubbal Kotkhai, creating a major stir. Perhaps he had sensed it, given the fact that he also contested from Rohru that year.

Similarly, Prem Kumar Dhumal lost out to long time associate turned nemesis Rajinder Rana in 2017 in Hamirpur, causing shockwaves. Of course, exceptions have also happened, as was the case in 2017 overall, where the BJP managed to win big in Mandi and Shimla while retaining its grip in lower Himachal.

This was achieved by reconciling with various rebel leaders, which was a rarity. The Congress too had managed to hold on to its vote share for the same reasons that year, making it a bit of an exception in the Himachal political arena.

Is 2022 Going to be Different?

Yes and No. The no part is certainly a bit more obvious. As we have repeatedly pointed out, the lacklustre leadership of Pratibha Singh has led to more and more high profile desertions from the Congress. This is causing them a lot of headaches; however, it seems as if the disinterest of top leadership has translated into demotivation for the party cadre below.

Therefore, it is to be seen if the Congress will somehow make an effort to retain its voteshare. Rallies by Priyanka Vadra are actually a symptom of all that is wrong, as she talks about Agniveer scheme but says that it will be scrapped once they ‘come to power’, making the audiences wonder if she is even aware of the election being a state level election.

In contrast, there is a lesser chance for the BJP. While it may sound strange, but the party’s election strategy has been a big departure from the past.

One of the most important things undertaken in the run up to candidate selection was the secret ballots conducted at assembly levels to gauge the popularity of the various contenders for every assembly seat. This has then been used to undertake ticket distribution for the various segments.

Interestingly, a clear signal was given about the leadership in advance, with Jai Ram Thakur’s leadership being given the green signal and Prem Kumar Dhumal not being given a ticket. Both J P Nadda and Anurag Thakur too have pretty much steered away from the candidate selection process, and letting the process decide.

This has helped to ensure that the rebels now announcing plans to contest against BJP are the ones who were denied tickets due to low popularity. Therefore, to claim that the rebels will necessarily dent BJP’s chances may be a little far fetched. 

Having said that, there are several ifs and buts that keep changing till the last minute. However, it may be safely said for now that the BJP is in a better position to buck the trend around rebels this time.

In fact, with many of longtime leaders from the Congress joining the BJP, the chances of the BJP creating history by repeating government for the first time in the electoral history of the state seem high for now.

Also Read: Assembly Polls: The Countdown Begins In Himachal Pradesh

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-The Royal Factor Of Himachal's Politics