Crystal Gazing Rahul Gandhi's Political Future

Performance as MP

Rahul Gandhi has represented Amethi since 2004. Official government records show that in the last 2 years, Rahul Gandhi spent a mere 6% of the funds available under MPLADS (Member of Parliament Local Area Development scheme). Since the formation of the15th Lok Sabha in 2009, Rahul Gandhi has utilized 39.18% of the funds released for the development of his constituency. The average for Uttar Pradesh is 56.27%. The intelligentsia, while closely scrutinizing the performance of Rahul Gandhi’s rumored rival for prime ministership, has been remarkably kind to this ‘youth’ leader. Rahul Gandhi’s political appearances, interactions and interventions in parliament score very high on symbolism. Since independence, every member of the Nehru-Gandhi family has passionately  talked about equality, upliftment of the poor and empowerment of the oppressed. It is perplexing that despite this commitment over the decades, the 4th generation Nehru-Gandhi scion is able to find so many poor people to break bread with during his carefully choreographed rural visits. Even more perplexing is his willingness to share this ‘accountability-free’ approach with foreign heads of state. According to Wikileaks, he told  the US Ambassador to India in 2009, Timothy Roemer,  that if President Obama were to visit India, it would be significant if he made some rhetorical or symbolic gestures that acknowledged India’s poor. It should come as no surprise then that little has changed on the ground since President Obama’s heart warming speeches in Delhi and Mumbai.

Be it electoral strategy,  performance as an MP or international relations, Rahul Gandhi  sure has room for improvement. It is not clear which of his achievements made him deserving of this sudden elevation. We also do not know whether there were other contenders. However, it is clear that he will formally play a big role in shaping the Congress party’s future. But, the party has cleverly stopped short of declaring him as its prime ministerial candidate. It suits the Congress to keep the suspense on.

Like mother, like son

The Gandhis have faced several personal tragedies during their political careers. His mother didn’t become prime minister when she led a winning coalition in 2004. He shares several of his mother’s traits – both are enigmatic, are surrounded by a close circle of trusted advisors, seldom interact with media, embark on carefully choreographed public interactions, have persistently avoided assuming a formal role in the government and wield overarching influence in the party and the government. Given that he has followed in his mother’s footsteps, it is very likely that he may not become the prime minister if the UPA wins a third straight term in the 2014. Sonia Gandhi was the face of the Congress election campaign in 2004. Yet, in what has proved to be a political masterstroke, she turned down the post of prime minister and picked Dr. Manmohan Singh instead.  The renunciation act has worked like a charm. In a way, this arrangement was the Indian adaptation of the Iranian system  where the supreme leader is more powerful than the elected President. There are key differences – the Iranian system is based on theology, while the Indian system is rooted in ideology. Also, unlike the Ayatallah, Mrs. Gandhi must face the electorate periodically.  However, the striking similarity is the power wielded by the supreme leader without having direct  accountability for executive actions. If Forbes is to be believed, Mrs. Gandhi has indeed played her cards very well for she ranks higher than both Dr. Singh and Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamenei. Even if her ill health forces her to vacate her perch, she would want her son to take her place.

The build up  fits well with the  political pattern of the Congress party. In 2004, Kanishka Singh, the Wharton-educated Congress strategist who is now a powerful member of Rahul Gandhi’s inner circle, wrote  ‘The Congress has chosen not to project a prime ministerial candidate. However, Sonia Gandhi remains the party’s (and its alliance’s) indisputable and singularly formidable ‘presidential’ candidate  and campaigner’. Exactly a decade later, the Congress may retain the act  but change the actors. Whether the audience will have the appetite for old wine in a new bottle will only be known on counting day. The odds are heavily stacked against Rahul Gandhi –  double anti-incumbency, massive corruption charges, an opposition that has smelled blood, muscle flexing allies and a deteriorating economy. If he does lead his party to a winning tally, it would mark his biggest electoral achievement and would go a long way in silencing those who questioned his political mettle.