Why Thrissur Matters For BJP's Inroads Into Kerala

All eyes are on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Thrissur today (3 January), where he will have a 1-kilometre-long roadshow and address two lakh women as part of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Stree Shakti Modikkoppam Mahila Sangamam programme.

The Prime Minister's visit also comes at a time when the government has been at loggerheads with Governor Arif Mohammad Khan, stating that he is working at the behest of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF) government has been embroiled in a conflict with the central government regarding the Enforcement Directorate investigation into a financial scandal at the Karuvannur Service Co-operative Bank in Thrissur, which is under the control of the CPI(M).

Thrissur is crucial for the BJP as it is one of the Lok Sabha seats in the state, which the party has a good chance of winning.

Popular Malayalam film actor Suresh Gopi is likely to be fielded by the party from the constituency.

Gopi was the party’s candidate in 2019 and is said to have been instrumental in taking up the party’s vote share to 28.2 per cent from 11.15 per cent in 2014.

It was one of the party’s highest vote share amongst all constituencies in the state and the gap with the runner-up, i.e., the CPI was just 2.7 per cent. The seat was won by T N Prathapan of the Congress, who secured 39.9 per cent. The CPI secured 30.9 per cent.

While Gopi has not yet been declared the candidate, BJP workers have put up graffitti seeking votes for him.

Gopi has reportedly started working in the constituency ahead of the elections by picking up issues like the ED’s probes into cooperative bank scams, in which leaders of the LDF are allegedly involved.

He conducted a 18-kilometre-long padayatra against the alleged corruption and money laundering in the CPM controlled Karuvannur Service Cooperative Bank.

The BJP is also working on increasing its vote share through its 'Sneha Yatra' outreach to the Christian community, which is present in significant numbers in the constituency.

According to 2011 Census figures, Christians form 24.27 per cent and Hindus 58.42 per cent of the population of Thrissur district.

Christians and Hindus have common concerns like ‘love jihad‘ and conversions to Islam. Both have been targeted by Islamist organisations like the Popular Front of India (PFI), which has now been banned.

Like Hindu groups, the Church has repeatedly raised the issue of conversation of women from the Christian community to Islam.

Christians have also been unhappy with the increasing importance of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the United Democratic Front (UDF).

This has led to some in the Christian community to look for alternatives, a trend that is making the ruling CPI(M) uncomfortable.

Few days after 47 Christian families along with Father Shaiju Kurien, the Secretary of the Orthodox Church Nilakkal joined the BJP, the party has alleged that the new members were subjected to cyber attacks by people belonging to the Congress and the CPI(M). 

While Christians have traditionally been supporters of the UDF, a substantial number also support the LDF, especially after the Kerala Congress (Mani) joined that front. If they shift to the BJP, especially in seats like Thrissur, the party could find it easier to reach the finish line in a triangular contest.

All in all, Thrissur looks good for the BJP.

While it does face an uphill battle against a formidable LDF and UDF, it is one of the party's best bets to open its account in the state.