Swarajya Logo
Swarajya Logo
Politics States Economy Society Business Culture Infra Defence World Books Ideas Science Technology Heritage Archives Legal Movies Sports
  • Our Views
    Politics States Economy Society Business Culture Infra Defence World Books Ideas Science Technology Heritage Archives Legal Movies Sports
  • Magazine
  • Store

About Swarajya

Swarajya is a publication by Kovai Media Private Limited.

Swarajya - a big tent for liberal right of centre discourse that reaches out, engages and caters to the new India.

editor@swarajyamag.com

Useful Links

  • About Us
  • Subscriptions Support
  • Editorial Philosophy
  • Press Kit
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Code of Conduct
  • Plagiarism Policy
  • Refund & Cancellation Policy

Useful Links

  • About Us
  • Subscriptions Support
  • Editorial Philosophy
  • Press Kit
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Code of Conduct
  • Plagiarism Policy
  • Refund & Cancellation Policy

Participate

  • Contact Us
  • Write for us
  • Style Guide
  • Jobs

Stay Connected

  • Artboard 2 Copy 6Created with Sketch.
    Artboard 2 Copy 10Created with Sketch.
    Artboard 2 Copy 7Created with Sketch.
    Artboard 2 Copy 9Created with Sketch.
  • Andriod Logo
  • IOS Logo

Context

Why Disqualification Of Rebel MLAs Is Not A Good Option For BJP

Swarajya StaffThursday, June 23, 2022 4:19 pm IST
Uddhav Thackeray (left), Eknath Shinde (centre) and Devendra Fadnavis (right)
Uddhav Thackeray (left), Eknath Shinde (centre) and Devendra Fadnavis (right)
Uddhav Thackeray (left), Eknath Shinde (centre) and Devendra Fadnavis (right)

As Uddhav Thackeray offers to resign and vacates his official residence, here's some number crunching on the Maharashtra political scenario.

Numbers in assembly: Shiv Sena won 56 seats in 2019, and has the same strength today. KSP MLA SY Gadakh joined Shiv Sena, while Sena's Andheri East MLA R Latke, unfortunately, passed away. This maintained Sena's tally at 56.

  • NCP won 54 seats in 2019 but now its seats are down to 51. This is because it lost a by-poll for the Pandharpur seat to the BJP and two of its MLAs, Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik, are in jail and can’t vote.

  • The BJP won 105 in 2019, which went up to 106 when they wrested Pandharpur from the NCP.

  • Congress has stayed static at 44 seats because it won by-polls to the seats it got in 2019.

Numbers for government: The effective house strength is presently 285 – three less than the 288 seats it is meant to have.

  • Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition started off with a total of 169 MLAs in 2019. That figure went up to 170 in 2020 when the KSP joined the Sena, but has now reduced to 167.

  • The halfway mark from 145 for a full house, has also reduced to 143 now.

What can be the scenarios: These scenarios will tell us what Eknath Shinde, or the BJP, probably won’t do.

Scenario 1: Rebel Shiv Sena MLAs get disqualified.

  • This can happen when the count of rebel Sena MLAs gets stuck at 36 or below it because 37-seat mark is needed to beat the anti-defection law.

  • The latest update suggests that Eknath Shinde has got the support of 34 MLAs for continuing as the party's legislative leader, in a letter sent to the state governor.

  • After disqualification, the MVA’s tally will be down to 126, the effective house strength down from 285 to 249, and the majority mark from 145 to 125.

Scenario 2: After Scenario 1, some independent MLAs join BJP.

  • Assume that five independents presently allied with the MVA switch to the BJP (a real possibility).

  • Also, nine out of 12 ‘Others’ (we have to deduct two of the AIMIM, and the lone Communist seat, since the probability of them aligning with the BJP is remote) join BJP.

  • This raises the BJP coalition’s strength to 123. The BJP would still be two short of the majority mark, and the MVA would still retain a slender majority of one, with 126 seats.

Inference: Shinde and his rebels won’t risk disqualification since that means a minimum of six months before they can return to the power game – if they get re-elected.

  • The BJP gains nothing from a pack of disqualified Sena MLAs, since they would still struggle to cross the halfway mark.

  • One plausible strategy is for Shinde to corral more than 37 rebels, formally, and legally, split the Shiv Sena, and then consider an alliance with the BJP.

  • That is an attractive option to the BJP too because it obviates the wearisome task of bargaining with a motley crowd of ‘Others’.

Tags
BJP
Congress
NCP
Shiv Sena
Uddhav Thackeray
Maharashtra politics
Eknath Shinde
MVA Government

Comments ↓

An Appeal...


 

Dear Reader,

 

As you are no doubt aware, Swarajya is a media product that is directly dependent on support from its readers in the form of subscriptions. We do not have the muscle and backing of a large media conglomerate nor are we playing for the large advertisement sweep-stake.

 

Our business model is you and your subscription.  And in challenging times like these, we need your support now more than ever.

 

We deliver over 10 - 15 high quality articles with expert insights and views. From 7AM in the morning to 10PM late night we operate to ensure you, the reader, get to see what is just right.

 

Becoming a Patron or a subscriber for as little as Rs 1200/year is the best way you can support our efforts.

Get Swarajya in your inbox.


Magazine


Swarajya Magazine Cover Image
Merchandise

Merchandise


    Politics

    Lok Sabha MP Danish Ali, Who Protested Against Mahua Moitra's Expulsion, Suspended By BSP For Indulging In 'Anti-Party Activities'

    Lok Sabha MP Danish Ali, Who Protested Against Mahua Moitra's Expulsion, Suspended By BSP For Indulging In 'Anti-Party Activities'

    Swarajya Staff
    6h

    MoS External Affairs Meenakshi Lekhi Denies Signing Lok Sabha Reply On Designating Hamas As Terror Organisation

    Swarajya Staff
    9h

    Hadiya, Woman At Centre Of Kerala Conversion Controversy, Says She Has Remarried

    Swarajya Staff
    10h

    Economy

    Enough Of Big Bang Reforms? No Major Announcements In Next Budget, "Wait Till July 2024", Says Nirmala Sitharaman

    Enough Of Big Bang Reforms? No Major Announcements In Next Budget, "Wait Till July 2024", Says Nirmala Sitharaman

    Nishtha Anushree
    2d

    ₹58,378 Crores! Govt Set To Open Taps On Additional Welfare Spending With 2024 In Mind

    Swarajya News Staff
    3d

    India Anticipated To Be Fastest Growing In Next Three Years, Set to Become Third Largest Economy By 2030: S&P

    Nishtha Anushree
    4d

    Defence

    1971 War: How The Indian Army Crossed The Mighty Meghna River In East Pakistan On Its March Towards Dhaka  

    1971 War: How The Indian Army Crossed The Mighty Meghna River In East Pakistan On Its March Towards Dhaka  

    Prakhar Gupta
    3h

    On This Day, In 1971, Indian Navy Once Again Targeted Karachi While Airlift At Meghna Put India Ahead In The Race Towards Dhaka

    Ujjwal Shrotryia
    8h

    On This Day, In 1971, Indian Military Keeps Up Pressure: With Intense Armour Clashes In Western Pakistan, While Second Naval Raid On Karachi Looms

    Ujjwal Shrotryia
    1d

    World

    After Becoming Longest-Serving President, Putin Announces Running For Election In Russia Again

    After Becoming Longest-Serving President, Putin Announces Running For Election In Russia Again

    Nishtha Anushree
    1d

    Maldives Skips Key Indian Ocean Security Meet With India And Other Neighbours, Opts For Chinese Forum Amidst Growing Tilt

    Swarajya Staff
    1d

    Azerbaijan President Accuses India And France Of Fuelling Armenia's Fire Of 'Revenge' For Loss In Nagorno-Karabakh War

    Swarajya Staff
    1d

    Culture

    From Jodhpur To Ayodhya On Bulls, Preserved Through Herbs: The Story Of Ghee To Be Used For Ram Lalla's First Aarti

    From Jodhpur To Ayodhya On Bulls, Preserved Through Herbs: The Story Of Ghee To Be Used For Ram Lalla's First Aarti

    Nishtha Anushree
    15h

    ‘Garba Of Gujarat’ Declared As Intangible Heritage By UNESCO

    Arun Kumar Das
    3d

    Gujarat's Garba Is Now In List Of UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity

    Swarajya News Staff
    3d
    States

    infrastructure


    Arun Kumar Das
    1

    Indian Railways To Run 4,500 Vande Bharat Trains By 2047, Says Union Minister Scindia

    2 Mins Read
    Arun Kumar Das
    2

    Path To Prosperity: National Tourism Policy Paves The Way For Economic Boost

    1 Mins Read
    Amit Mishra
    3

    Gurugram: Haryana Government To Incorporate 'New Company' For Millennium City Metro Corridor

    2 Mins Read
    Amit Mishra
    4

    Ayodhya Airport To Be Ready By December End, Says Jyotiraditya Scindia

    2 Mins Read