Why Samajwadi Party Is Likely To Win Rampur Bypoll

Lok Sabha constituency of Rampur is headed for a by-poll on 23 June. Here's why SP might win this seat.

About the contest: Rampur seat got vacated after its MP Azam Khan got elected to the UP assembly in March this year.

• Asim Raja is contesting on behalf of the Samajwadi Party.

• BJP’s candidate is Ghanshyam Lodhi, who was with the SP till just a month before the assembly polls.

• The Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party will not be participating making it a bipolar contest.

Electoral history: The seat is under the influence of an identity base of Muslims, Yadavs and Jats.

• 2009: Actress Jayaprada won on an SP ticket and BJP came last with 10 per cent vote share.

• 2014: BJP surged to victory on the crest of a ‘Modi wave’ by gaining 27 per cent.

• 2017: SP-INC alliance had 9 per cent more vote share than BJP in the aggregated result of the five assembly constituencies which make up this Lok Sabha seat.

• 2019: BJP did improve its performance to a commendable 43 per cent but in the bipolar election, the SP alliance won with 53 per cent of the popular vote.

• 2022: The gap between the BJP and the SP vote shares increased to 13 per cent in the aggregate of five assembly constituencies.

Present scenario: The SP has steadily expanded and consolidated its vote base in Rampur over the past decade.

• The BJP, too, has grown in Rampur, but it is still a clear second.

• This seat has become almost exclusively bipolar with only 4 per cent staying with the 'Others' in 2019 elections and 13 per cent in 2022 elections.

What works for SP: The SP currently commands 50 per cent of the vote in this seat.

• Votes which shift to the SP from non-BJP parties via periodic alliances are seen to stay loyal to the SP even after those alliances have broken.

• Amid vitiated political atmosphere by identity politics, the BJP’s best efforts to institute a supra-caste consolidation will not be enough, when sheer demographics is against it.

• The SP’s 2022 win-margin over the BJP is equal to the BSP-plus-Others’ vote in these assembly elections.

Does BJP have a chance: While we cannot rule out such an eventuality, the probability of its occurrence is low.

• The BJP does benefit from a vote share rise in general elections, but the situation is slightly different in Rampur this time.

• Even if the BJP manages to get 4 per cent from ‘Others’, and 5 per cent from the BSP, that would still take it up to only 46 per cent, from the 37 per cent it logged in March 2022.

• The BJP will not be able to win this seat unless it attracts at least 6-7 per cent of the vote directly from the SP.

Bottomline: The most probable outcome is that the SP will win Rampur with around 50 per cent of the vote share, with the BJP close behind.