Pahalgam Attack: Three Things You Must Know To Make Sense Of Pakistan's Dangerous Gamble

The devastating terror attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam today (22 April), which claimed the lives of at least 26 tourists, marks a significant escalation in the ongoing insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. This incident, which occurred in the Baisaran Valley, involved terrorists opening indiscriminate fire on a group of tourists after confirming they were Hindu — resulting in the deadliest civilian attack in the region in recent years.

1. Pakistan has been systematically probing Indian defences

The attack in Pahalgam is part of a wider, more disturbing pattern. Over the past two years, Pakistan has deliberately shifted the theatre of terror operations from the more heavily secured Kashmir Valley to the hilly districts of the Jammu region — Poonch, Rajouri, Reasi — all of which had seen relative peace for most of the last decade. The renewed focus on Jammu indicates a tactical adjustment: exploiting terrain, testing India’s response, and probing for vulnerabilities.

This push hasn’t been limited to Jammu alone. Ceasefire violations and infiltration attempts along the Line of Control — such as the one recently reported in the J sector, where Pakistani troops crossed the LoC and were pushed back by Indian forces — are further signs of this pattern. Sporadic attacks in the Valley have continued as well — enough to keep Indian forces alert, but not enough to provoke a full-scale retaliation. Together, these actions amount to a calibrated probe — a test of India’s strategic posture across multiple fronts.

2. Rawalpindi’s frustration over losing the Kashmir narrative

For the Pakistan Army, the erosion of its grip over the Kashmir narrative has been a bitter pill to swallow. Since India abrogated Article 370 in 2019, Islamabad has scrambled to mount any meaningful response — diplomatically, militarily, or even rhetorically. International bodies have largely shrugged, the OIC has offered only token noises, and the Valley — once a hotbed of separatist sentiment — has seen record tourism and credible democratic elections. The symbols of "normalcy" that Rawalpindi once mocked are now becoming entrenched, and it has no counter-narrative left.

It is in this context that General Asim Munir’s recent declaration of Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” — a line not seriously invoked since the Zia era — must be understood. It wasn’t strategic signaling. It was the cry of an institution watching the central pillar of its ideological identity slip away. The louder the rhetoric grows, the clearer it becomes: Rawalpindi is no longer setting the terms of the Kashmir discourse, it's reacting to its loss.

3. Diversion from the internal battle

At first glance, it may appear irrational for the Pakistan Army to provoke a major incident at a time when it is firefighting crises on multiple fronts. The TTP continues to get the better of it in the tribal areas. Baloch separatists recently held an entire train of off-duty soldiers hostage in a stunning display of defiance. Relations with Afghanistan — once thought to be manageable under the Taliban — have completely deteriorated. The country is in the midst of a deep political and economic rut.

Logically, this would seem the worst time to open another front with India. And yet, that is precisely what Rawalpindi has done. Why?

Because when things fall apart internally, the Army reaches for the only narrative that still holds the country together — India as the eternal enemy.

Talking about Kashmir, launching attacks, risking retaliation — these are all tools to distract, unify, and reassert the Army’s centrality in Pakistan.

In this calculus, even a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam makes sense: it reactivates the India card, reminds the domestic audience of the Army’s supposed raison d'être, and gives the generals something to rally the country around. It is for this reason that the Pakistan Army is even ready to risk an Indian retaliation. It would only help make the institution that thrives on the “India threat” seem more relevant.