Maharashtra: Every Man For Himself

The BJP is betting that the four-way split of votes—with MNS lurking in the backdrop—will give it a chance to lead a government in the state for the first time.

Contestants switching parties, a four-day televised extravaganza and anti-incumbency that has been 15 years in the making – these are some of the factors that make the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) confident of emerging as the single largest party in the next Maharashtra assembly, despite the breakdown of its quarter-century-old political alliance with the Shiv Sena.

The uncanny timing of the breakdown of the rival alliance – of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress – has added to this confidence, because if after the elections, the Sena continues to play hardball, the BJP can always count on support from its old friend, the wily Sharad Pawar. The NCP may be willing to facilitate Maharashtra’s first BJP-led government, so that the Centre goes slow on an inquiry into Air India’s aircraft purchase while NCP leader Praful Patel was Civil Aviation Minister in the last UPA government

Despite the election turning into a four-way fight, the BJP believes there are several reasons for it to expect to win over 100 seats in the 288-seat assembly. That will certainly make it the largest party and whatever coalition it can stitch up after that, it will lead the government.

First, anti-incumbency is far too deep in Maharashtra. It is so deep that the recent by-poll reverses that the BJP suffered in Bihar, UP and Rajasthan are not expected to impact the BJP’s fortunes in the state. Before the breakdown of the BJP-SS alliance, the feedback from around the state was that at best, the NCP-Congress could at best win approximately 80 seats. With that alliance also breaking down, the Congress could be facing a wipe-out.

Second, the BJP had got an early start to its campaign from the 3,000-km Sangharsh Yatra by Pankaja Munde, which by all accounts met with enthusiastic response. Pankaja is the daughter of Gopinath Munde, the longtime state BJP master strategist who tragically died in a road accident in New Delhi days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet took charge. While many had initially been worried about how the BJP would cope without the man who, among other things, nurtured the alliance in his home state with the Sena, his daughter’s roadshow has come as a real morale-booster for the party cadre in the state.

Third, the BJP is expecting 10-12 Sena legislators to cross over before the last date of withdrawal of candidates, which is October 1. This might be a big blow for the Sena just before the election, though it is admittedly a risky gambit, as turncoats do not go down well with the electorate. In addition, several Congress hopefuls may also defect. It is a fluid and murky situation, yet of all the parties, the BJP expects to gain the most.

Fourth, the BJP is planning to use the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) headed by Uddhav’s cousin Raj Thackeray to cut into Sena votes. Though the MNS is seen as a party losing steam – and no one is considering an alliance with it – it has announced 80-90 candidates and has the potential, as in the previous election, of playing spoiler with Sena candidates.

Fifth, the BJP is banking on, for next five days, carpet-bomb-type television coverage of the prime minister’s trip to the US (This has started even before Modi reached New York. Television anchors have stationed in the Big Apple for days, and hosting shows from there. The general message coming from these shows—whether orchestrated or not—is that the average Indian in America is pro-Modi and has high hopes from him for India). Maharashtra has a significant urban electorate with new (young) voters, most of whom see America in a positive light; and the day-and-night coverage of Narendra Modi with a wide range of Americans – including a spectacle hosted by NRIs at New York City’s Madison Square Garden – is expected to serve as heavy publicity for the party going into the final two weeks of campaigning. The BJP is apparently facilitating heavy chunks of the coverage for cash-hungry TV news channels.

Hence the BJP is optimistic that it will lead a government in Maharashtra for the first time. However, what form the final ruling coalition will take remains uncertain.