Not What You’d Expect: How A New Survey Maps Karnataka’s Quiet But Radical Political Realignment

On a chilly evening in Bengaluru, as the monsoon clouds gather over the city, the conversations in the drawing rooms and tea stalls across Karnataka are about the changing political winds.

A quiet but significant shift appears to be taking root in Karnataka's electorate. In a survey titled "The Pulse of Karnataka State-2025", the results were not quite what one would expect two years after Congress won the state elections.

The survey was conducted by Codemo, an analytics startup at the intersection of technology and political intelligence, in partnership with Hyderabad's People's Pulse Political Research Organisation.

Spanning over a month from 17 April to 18 May, this survey reached 10,481 respondents across the state's diverse rural and urban constituencies, asking a deceptively simple question: if elections were held today, who would govern Karnataka?

The answers reveal not just a state in political transition, but the deeper social and economic flux translating into this political change.

The Numbers Tell a Story

The survey predicted that the BJP could secure 136 to 159 seats out of 224, marking its first full-majority government in the state. In contrast, the ruling Congress is projected to win between 62 and 82 seats, while the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) is forecast to shrink to just 3 to 6 seats.

Behind these seat projections lies an even more dramatic shift in vote share.

BJP is projected to secure a vote share of 51 per cent, with a lead of 10.7 per cent over Congress, which stands at 40.3 per cent. JD(S) trails with 5 per cent.

This marks a significant reversal from the 2023 Assembly elections, where Congress had secured 42.88 per cent and BJP 36 per cent—a complete inversion of political fortunes that suggests something more profound than typical electoral swings.

The transformation becomes even more striking when viewed through the lens of voter expectations.

In perception analysis, 55 per cent of voters expect a BJP victory in the next assembly elections, compared to 39.1 per cent for Congress. This alignment between current voting intentions and future expectations suggests a consolidation of sentiment rather than momentary dissatisfaction.

Yet beneath these stark numbers lies a more nuanced reality.

Despite governance concerns and rising public dissatisfaction, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah continues to top the popularity charts. The survey revealed that 29.2 per cent of respondents preferred him for the top post, with Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar following at 10.7 per cent and H.D. Kumaraswamy trailing at 7.6 per cent.

The state government's performance ratings reflect this complexity. While 48.4 per cent rate the Congress government 'good' or 'very good', over 32 per cent per cent term it 'bad' or 'very bad', with nearly one in five voters describing the government's performance as 'average'. Perhaps most tellingly, nearly 48 per cent of voters say the current Congress government is better than the previous BJP regime. Yet, this comparative approval hasn't translated into electoral support.

This paradox—a leader who remains personally popular even as his party faces potential electoral defeat—speaks to the complex relationship between individual charisma and institutional performance in Indian democracy.

The Fragmentation of Regional Politics

Perhaps nowhere is Karnataka's changing political landscape more evident than in the precipitous decline of the JD(S). The JD(S), once a key player in Karnataka politics, appears to be losing relevance. Its predicted vote share has plunged to 5 per cent from 18.3 per cent in 2023. The data suggests a clear shift towards a bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress, sidelining regional alternatives.

The Caste Calculus: Realignment and Continuity

Yet perhaps the most profound transformation revealed by the survey lies in Karnataka's intricate caste dynamics—a political arithmetic that has traditionally determined electoral outcomes but now shows signs of both entrenchment and unexpected fluidity.

The data unveils a landscape where ancestral loyalties persist alongside dramatic realignments, creating new possibilities and challenges for political strategists across party lines.

At the heart of this caste reconfiguration lies the Lingayat community's overwhelming consolidation behind the BJP, with a staggering 78.9 per cent support that represents one of the most decisive political alignments in contemporary Karnataka. This near-monolithic backing transforms the Lingayats—comprising approximately 17 per cent of the state's population—into BJP's most reliable electoral fortress.

The community's support has deep historical roots in decades of political cultivation, particularly during the leadership eras of B.S. Yediyurappa, but the current numbers suggest a consolidation that transcends individual personalities to become institutional loyalty.

This Lingayat consolidation stands in stark contrast to the political fragmentation witnessed among the Vokkaligas, Karnataka's other dominant agrarian community.

In what may represent the most significant caste-political shift in recent Karnataka history, Vokkaliga support has splintered dramatically: BJP leads with 47.8 per cent, while the traditional Vokkaliga political vehicle, JD(S), has been reduced to just 24.6 per cent, with Congress trailing at 22.9 per cent.

This fragmentation is particularly striking given that Vokkaligas have historically served as the backbone of JD(S) support, especially under H.D. Deve Gowda's leadership. The community's movement toward BJP—concentrated as they are in South Karnataka's Old Mysore region, influencing 40-50 assembly constituencies—represents a seismic shift that could reshape the state's electoral geography.

The survey reveals that this Vokkaliga realignment occurs alongside the continued loyalty of the Kuruba community to Congress, with 54.6 per cent support that makes them the party's most reliable caste constituency.

This alignment runs deeper than mere political convenience, rooted as it is in Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's own Kuruba identity and his role as the community's prominent political representative. The Kurubas' pastoral and agricultural background aligns naturally with Congress's rural welfare messaging, creating a symbiotic relationship between community interests and party positioning.

Among the Scheduled Castes community, the political dynamics reveal both traditional patterns and emerging complexities. While Congress maintains an overall 9.8 per cent lead (51.5 per cent vs 41.7 per cent for BJP) among SC voters broadly, the survey uncovers important sub-community variations that suggest more nuanced loyalties than aggregate numbers might indicate.

The Madiga and Madar communities, with 45.1 per cent and 39.7 per cent respectively expressing trust in the controversial caste census report, appear to view current political discussions around caste enumeration favourably—a sentiment that may influence their electoral calculations beyond traditional party loyalties.

Perhaps most surprising is BJP's performance among Scheduled Tribes, where the party leads the Congress by a substantial margin of 22 percentage points. This represents a significant departure from historical patterns, given that tribal communities have traditionally aligned more closely with Congress. The shift suggests BJP's successful cultivation of tribal leadership and effective messaging around tribal pride and cultural identity, potentially reshaping political calculations in constituencies with significant tribal populations.

The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) present another dimension of BJP's expanding social coalition, with the party maintaining a 14 point lead that indicates successful expansion beyond traditional upper-caste support.

This OBC alignment proves particularly significant given the community's substantial population share and their crucial role in any party's path to majority status. BJP's ability to win OBC support while maintaining Lingayat loyalty demonstrates sophisticated coalition-building that transcends simple caste arithmetic.

Among General category voters, BJP's 15 point lead aligns with broader national patterns while remaining electorally important due to concentration in urban constituencies. This support base provides the party with reliable backing in educated, middle-class segments that increasingly influence political outcomes in Karnataka's urbanising landscape.

The intersection of religious identity with caste dynamics adds another layer of complexity to Karnataka's political matrix. The survey reveals stark religious polarization that sometimes trumps traditional caste considerations: BJP's 58.5 per cent support among Hindus versus Congress's 32 per cent shows how religious identity can serve as a unifying factor across traditional caste divisions. Conversely, Congress's 85.5 per cent support among Muslims demonstrates the community's strategic consolidation.

The controversy surrounding the caste census reveals how contemporary caste politics intersects with party loyalties in unexpected ways. The survey's findings on trust levels expose deep social divisions that cut across party lines: while Kurubas show moderate confidence at 33 per cent trust, and Madigas demonstrate the highest trust levels at 45.1 per cent, both Lingayats and Vokkaligas show over 50 per cent distrust of the census report.

These patterns suggest that caste communities are making independent assessments of political developments rather than simply following party lines—a sophistication that complicates traditional vote-bank politics.

Regional variations in caste concentrations create distinct political geographies across Karnataka. North Karnataka's Lingayat concentration provides BJP with structural advantages, while scattered Muslim populations in certain constituencies remain Congress strongholds, and SC communities dispersed across rural areas create localized political dynamics.

South Karnataka's complexity emerges from Vokkaliga fragmentation creating three-way contests, Kuruba concentration supporting Congress in specific districts, and urban caste dynamics that differ markedly from rural patterns.

The implications of these caste realignments extend far beyond simple electoral arithmetic. For BJP, the challenge lies in consolidating Vokkaliga gains while maintaining Lingayat loyalty and expanding OBC outreach. The party must also address SC concerns to reduce Congress's advantage while building on surprising tribal support.

For Congress, the imperative involves strengthening the Kuruba base through Siddaramaiah's continued popularity while finding ways to win back Vokkaligas and retain SC loyalty through welfare policies. The party must also discover methods to appeal across caste lines rather than relying solely on traditional constituencies.

JD(S) faces perhaps an existential challenge, needing to revive its Vokkaliga base while finding voters beyond traditional strongholds. The party's relevance crisis demands regional strategies focused on areas where caste dynamics still provide advantages, though the survey data suggests such areas are increasingly limited.

The evolution of Karnataka's caste politics reflects broader tensions between traditional identity and contemporary aspiration. Educational and occupational mobility increasingly influence political choices alongside ancestral caste loyalties, while generational change creates different voting patterns within each community.

Urbanization further complicates caste politics as professional identity sometimes supersedes traditional considerations, and Modi's cross-caste appeal influences state-level calculations in ways that transcend local caste equations.

The Demographic Dimensions and the Aspiration Divide

The survey reveals how Karnataka's political transformation cuts across traditional demographic boundaries while creating new patterns of alignment based on education, occupation, and aspiration.

Among women voters, BJP holds a 3.8 per cent edge over Congress (48.4 per cent vs 44.6 per cent), while among men, the gap widens dramatically to 13 per cent with BJP at 51.9 per cent and Congress at 38.9 per cent. This gender differential suggests that the political shift isn't uniformly distributed across genders.

Perhaps most striking is the generational divide. Among 18–25-year-olds, BJP leads Congress by a substantial 24 per cent. This youth preference for the BJP challenges conventional assumptions about young voters gravitating toward change and may reflect the party's success in framing itself as the vehicle for aspiration and development.

The data reveals a fascinating inversion of traditional political alignments when examined through the lens of education and occupation. Among voters with no formal education, Congress maintains a commanding 23 per cent lead (58.6 per cent vs 35.6 per cent), while the party barely edges ahead among those educated below class 8th (48.0 per cent vs 46.1 per cent). However, as educational attainment increases, the political preference shifts decisively toward the BJP.

From 8th to 10th class, BJP begins to gain ground with a modest 3.9 per cent lead (48.0 per cent vs 44.2 per cent). This advantage accelerates dramatically among higher secondary graduates, where BJP leads by 13.8 points (53.0 per cent vs 39.2 per cent). The gap becomes a chasm among diploma holders (30.3 points) and graduates (29.7 points), with BJP securing nearly 60 per cent support in both categories. Among post-graduates, BJP's dominance reaches 60.4 per cent compared to Congress's 27.1 per cent—a staggering 33.3 per cent margin.

This educational gradient suggests that the BJP has successfully positioned itself as the party of aspiration and upward mobility, attracting voters who view education as a pathway to economic advancement.

Occupational patterns reinforce this narrative. Among students—perhaps the most forward-looking demographic—BJP enjoys a remarkable 38.9 margin lead (61.0 per cent vs 22.1 per cent), suggesting that young people entering the workforce see their future aligned with BJP's promises.

Private sector employees, often considered barometers of economic dynamism, favour BJP by a margin of 27.0 points (58.6 per cent vs 31.7 per cent), while government employees—traditionally Congress supporters seeking job security—still lean BJP by 21.7 margin (56.8 per cent vs 35.1 per cent).

Even among teachers, often considered natural Congress constituencies due to their dependence on government policies, BJP maintains a 16.7 point advantage (55.2 per cent vs 38.5 per cent). This suggests that even public sector professionals are influenced by broader political currents beyond immediate occupational interests.

The rural-urban divide shows BJP maintaining clear leads in both contexts—13.5 per cent lead over Congress in rural areas and 6.6 per cent in urban regions. Among farmers, traditionally a Congress constituency, BJP's vote share reaches 53.9 per cent while Congress trails at 37.4 per cent—a gap of 16.5. Given that farmer-related issues were among the key factors in Congress's 2023 victory, this shift represents perhaps the most concerning development for the ruling party.

Conversely, Congress retains its appeal among labourers, leading by 11.2 points (52.5 per cent vs 41.3 per cent), reflecting the party's continued relevance among the most economically vulnerable sections. However, even among seemingly Congress-friendly demographics like housewives (2.2 point lead in favour of BJP) and unemployed individuals (2.4 point margin for BJP), the ruling party's traditional constituencies show narrow preferences for the opposition.

The Leadership Conundrum

While Siddaramaiah's personal appeal remains intact, the BJP faces its own leadership puzzle.

No BJP leader crossed the 10 per cent mark individually—B.S. Yediyurappa and B.Y. Vijayendra receive 5.5 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively—though 16.9 per cent of respondents said they would back "any BJP candidate." This diffusion of support across multiple potential leaders suggests a party with strong institutional appeal but unclear personal leadership.

This leadership vacuum becomes more intriguing when contrasted with the towering presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Karnataka's political consciousness. Modi remains the overwhelming choice for PM among Karnataka voters, securing 59.1 per cent support—a figure that dwarfs any state-level political leader. In comparison, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge trail far behind with 17.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively, while 10.9 per cent of voters prefer Yogi Adityanath for the top post.

Perhaps most striking is the cross-party appeal of Modi's leadership. Over 37 per cent of Congress voters favour Modi for PM, even as their own party's Rahul Gandhi leads marginally with 40.6 per cent among Congress supporters. This remarkable crossover suggests that Modi's appeal transcends traditional party loyalties in Karnataka, creating what political scientists might call a "split-ticket mentality" where voters distinguish sharply between state and national preferences.

The Central government's performance ratings reinforce this phenomenon. With 66.3 per cent of voters giving the Central government a positive rating, the approval levels far exceed those of the state government. Most tellingly, 59.3 per cent of Congress voters—nearly six in ten supporters of the ruling state party—also rated the Central government's performance as 'Very Good' or 'Good'. This cross-party approval of Modi's leadership while simultaneously supporting or considering support for the BJP at the state level creates a complex political dynamic that may be reshaping traditional electoral calculations.

Modi's popularity remains rock-solid among BJP voters, with more than 73 per cent backing, but extends significantly beyond the party's traditional base. Even among JDS voters, over 73 per cent support Modi as PM, suggesting that the Prime Minister has achieved a kind of political standing that transcends party affiliations—a phenomenon that may be influencing state-level voting patterns even when local BJP leadership remains fragmented.

The survey's methodology adds weight to its findings. Conducted across Karnataka's rural and urban regions, the research examined party perception, vote share analysis, and leadership preferences through ten carefully constructed questions. The respondents represented the state's demographic diversity, offering insights into how different communities, age groups, and regions view their political options.

Beyond Electoral Mathematics

Yet perhaps the most revealing aspect of the survey lies not in its seat projections but in what it suggests about Karnataka's political culture. The research examined public sentiment on governance schemes, revealing that 'Gruha Lakshmi' tops the list (45.4 per cent) as the most beneficial scheme while 'Yuva Nidhi' (2 per cent) ranks lowest. Remarkably, only 3 per cent of voters reported being unaware of the five guarantees introduced by the Karnataka Congress government, indicating high awareness that hasn't translated into political support.

The survey also probed the controversial caste census, revealing deep divisions along party lines. While 26.3 per cent of voters say they fully trust the report, 35 per cent express distrust. Among BJP voters, 43.3 per cent do not trust the report, as do 50 per cent of JDS voters. Caste-wise, the data shows higher trust levels among Kurubas (33 per cent), Madigas (45.1 per cent), and Madars (39.7 per cent), while more than 50 per cent of Lingayat and Vokkaliga voters remain skeptical.

Public grievances center around fundamental infrastructure challenges, with 12.7 per cent of voters citing poor civic amenities, 11.1 per cent highlighting water shortage, and 9.6 per cent pointing to farmer distress as their primary concerns. These bread-and-butter issues suggest that despite the success of flagship schemes, basic governance challenges continue to influence voter sentiment.

The data reveals a state where voters distinguish between individual leaders and party performance, where personal popularity doesn't automatically translate into electoral success, and where traditional coalitions face pressure from changing social dynamics. The sophisticated calculations that Karnataka's voters bring to their democratic choices reflect a maturity that transcends simple anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency narratives.

As Karnataka navigates the complex terrain between its aspirations for development and its commitment to social equity, "The Pulse of Karnataka State-2025" offers more than electoral forecasts. It provides a snapshot of a democracy in transition, where traditional patterns of loyalty and opposition are being reshaped by contemporary expectations and enduring social realities—where caste remains a powerful organizing principle even as its political expressions evolve in response to educational mobility, economic aspiration, and generational change.

Whether these survey findings will translate into actual electoral outcomes remains, of course, the ultimate test of their accuracy. But in revealing the gaps between institutional performance and individual appeal, between party loyalty and governance expectations, between ancestral identity and contemporary aspiration, the survey illuminates the sophisticated calculations that Karnataka's voters bring to their democratic choices—calculations that may well determine not just who governs the state, but how democracy itself evolves in one of India's most politically dynamic regions.