After Thrissur, Can BJP Make History In Palakkad?

As campaigning wraps up in Wayanad and Chelakkara, all eyes are on the bypoll in Kerala’s Palakkad, where, unlike in the other two constituencies, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—which has only ever held one MLA seat in the state—has a reasonable chance of winning.

There are quite a few things going in favour of the party in Palakkad, chief amongst them being the positive momentum after a historic performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. It had achieved its best ever vote share and was in the first position in 11 assembly constituencies.

The others include being in power in the municipality and having finished second in the last two assembly elections, i.e. 2016 and 2021. Further, the margin of defeat in 2021, when ‘Metroman’ E Sreedharan was the BJP candidate, was just 3859 votes.

Adding to that are the ongoing protests against the Waqf Board’s claim over 404 acres of land in Munambam near Kochi. As a large number of those affected are Christians, it might have an impact on their voting pattern in Palakkad. 

Remarks by Archbishop Raphael Thattil of the Syro-Malabar Church at the protest site saying that the next time people go to vote, they should think differently and not choose the usual symbol, have added to speculation that the Christian community might vote for the BJP, which has championed the case of those against the Waqf Board's nuisance.

But all is not rosy. 

While the BJP has chosen to go with C Krishnakumar, who was its candidate in the Lok Sabha elections, Sandeep Warrier, a former BJP spokesperson and one of the prospective candidates from the seat, had said that he would not campaign for the party as he was being sidelined by the leadership. 

Though party members have played down its impact and said that the senior leadership is in touch with him to address his concerns, Warrier’s decision did cause some disquiet in the the BJP ranks, given that he is a well-known face in the state.

However, what also makes this bypoll interesting is that its opponents, i.e. the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) are also facing internal issues. 

The decision of the Congress to field its youth wing president Rahul Mamkoothathil of Pathanamthitta district, instead of P Sarin, who was vying for the ticket, has not gone down well amongst many.

Political commentator and lawyer Ananth Krishna S and BJP spokesperson P R Shivashankar said that Mamkoothathil is believed to have gotten the ticket because of the influence of the former MLA Shafi Parambil (whose election as the MP from Vadakara necessitated the bypoll) and V D Satheesan, the leader of the opposition in the Kerala Assembly. 

“Satheesan and Parambil pressured the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee. Many of their leaders were against Mamkoothathil’s candidature. The three are said to have formed a group within the party,” Shivashankar said.

Sarin, who was denied the ticket, is now putting up a fight as an independent with the backing of the CPI(M). 

This has however not gone down well amongst the party cadre as Sarin had been very vocal against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. 

BJP Is Strong In The Urban Areas

The Palakkad assembly constituency is made up of a municipality and three panchayats—Kannadi, Pirayiri and Mathur. While the party has been in power in the municipality and has done well there, the panchayats are where it has to up its game. 

Another political commentator who spoke with this writer said, “The panchayats are the strongholds of the Left. One of them, i.e. Pirayiri, has a sizable population of Muslims, who have traditionally been supporters of the Congress.

“For the BJP to win Palakkad, it would have to maximise its votes in the urban areas and get extra votes in the panchayats. The difference during the last time was not huge but it was the votes from the panchayats which saw through Parambil in the end.”

Asked for his opinion about this, Shivashankar said that the party was confident of performing well in the rural areas this time around. 

“It is true that the Left and the Congress have a lot of support there but this time they too are facing some issues there. There is anger against the Congress leadership as neither Rahul nor Parambil visited the family of a panchayat president who committed suicide. 

“The CPI(M) cadre is not working as hard as before because of the disgruntlement over Sarin’s candidature. Further, he is not contesting on the party symbol. That could make things difficult for them.”

He added that the BJP has recognised the issue and has been working in the rural areas.

Krishnakumar’s Candidature: A Double Edged Sword?

This would be Krishnakumar’s third shot at getting elected from Palakkad. His earlier attempts were in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Though he finished third both times, the party’s vote share increased from 21.44 per cent in 2021 to 24.31 per cent in 2024. 

This, coupled with the fact that he knows the city well, as he had served as a councillor for four times, might have tipped the scales in favour of his candidature. 

But not everyone is happy with his selection.

“While Krishnakumar is a loyal party hand, with a background in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, and has a personal connection with the city, he is not a very charismatic or inspiring leader. There is also the chance of some amount of voter fatigue having set in. His candidature is thus like a double-edged sword,” said the commentator.

Anti-Incumbency Against Pinarayi Vijayan And Shafi Parambil

While the political commentator was dismissive about the potential impact of the unhappiness with Vijayan’s rule as the fight in the constituency is mainly between the Congress and the BJP, Shivashankar said that the anti-Vijayan and anti-Parambil votes are likely to help his party.

“Parambil did not bring any development to the constituency. People know that it is the BJP which has done work here. We are not in power in the state but it is us who brought the AMRUT scheme for the city, industrial parks and also an IIT. The state government too hasn’t done anything worthwhile for the area.

“Though the CPI (M) and Congress are known to indulge in cross voting in order to defeat us, we think that we are likely to benefit from the disaffection in both parties.”

Palakkad, thus promises to be an interesting contest. While it remains to be seen if unhappy supporters of the Congress, Left and Christians indeed transfer their votes to the BJP, the party has a lot going for it and if it wins the seat, it could create history once again, like in Thrissur. 

The BJP has never won a bypoll in the state and Palakkad could thus be the turning point.

Also Read: Ground Report From Kerala: How Sangh And Civic Groups Are Convincing People That The Current Waqf Law Must Go