BJP-Led NDA Likely To Repeat Lok Sabha Seat Formula For Bihar Assembly Polls; JD(U) May Get Slight Edge In Numbers: Report

The BJP and its allies are expected to follow the same seat-sharing pattern as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections for the upcoming Bihar assembly polls, India Today reported citing sources.

Bihar’s NDA coalition includes the BJP, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM), and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM).

During the Lok Sabha polls, BJP contested 17 seats, JD(U) 16, LJP(RV) 5, with HAM and RLM contesting one each.

For the assembly polls, JD(U) may get to contest one or two more seats than the BJP, according to the sources cited in the India Today report.

Of the 243 total seats, JD(U) is likely to get 102–103, BJP 101–102, and the remaining 40 seats are to be divided among the smaller allies—LJP, HAM, and RLM.

LJP, with five MPs in the Parliament, is likely to receive the biggest share among junior allies and may contest 25–28 seats.

HAM could get 6–7 seats, while RLM might be allotted 4–5 seats.

Internal BJP surveys conducted earlier this year across all constituencies are reportedly driving the seat-sharing strategy and candidate selection, with a clear emphasis on nominating the strongest candidate in each seat.

These survey insights may also shape post-election Cabinet allocations if the NDA wins the Bihar polls, which are expected to be held in October–November.

Riding on recent victories in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, BJP plans to replicate the poll performance in Bihar, possibly announcing candidates even before the EC declares poll dates—a tactic it has used with success earlier.

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