India’s Q3 Export Growth To Hit $107.5 Billion As Per Exim Bank; Experts Flag Slower-Than-Expected Pace

India’s merchandise exports are projected to grow by 1.85 per cent year-on-year to $107.5 billion in the third quarter of FY25 (October-December), according to India Exim Bank. In comparison, goods exports were at $104.61 billion in the same period last year.

Exim Bank forecasts non-oil exports at $91.7 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 7.39 per cent. This projected increase points to a modest yet steady recovery, buoyed by India’s resilient economic fundamentals and consistent demand from key trade partners, despite global economic uncertainty.

However, Exim Bank has noted ongoing external risks, including instability in advanced and emerging economies, rising geo-economic fragmentation, and conflicts in the Middle East and West Asia.

Exim Bank anticipates that the positive trend in total merchandise, non-oil, and non-oil, non-gems, and jewellery exports will likely carry forward into Quarter four (Q4) FY25.

“There’s no substantial increase; the growth we’re witnessing is well below expectations. For an economy aiming for a 7 per cent growth rate, exports should ideally grow by 14-16 per cent. However, exports are not keeping up with this target,” economist and former Chief Statistician of India, Pranab Sen, told The Mint.

India’s merchandise exports reached $109.11 billion in Q1 FY25 and $102.34 billion in Q2, compared to $101.87 billion in Q1 FY24 and $107.5 billion in Q2 FY24.

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