Karnataka 2023: Pre-Poll Surveys By Regional News Channels Point To Hung Assembly

Karnataka is looking at a hung assembly in the upcoming elections on 10 May, as per the latest pre-poll surveys.

A report published by the Deccan Herald on Wednesday (26 April) says that out of the six opinion surveys, all of them indicate a hung verdict, with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress emerging as largest single party in two each.

The Asianet-Suvarna News Jan Ki Baat survey gives the BJP a lead with 98-109 seats, ahead of 89-97 seats for Congress and 28-33 for Janata Dal (Secular).

The News First-Matrize survey said the BJP would win 96-106 seats, and gave the Congress and JD(S) 84-94 and 29-34 seats respectively.

Meanwhile, the pre-poll survey conducted by TV9 and C-Voter indicates that the Congress can win 106-116 seats, while the BJP would end up with a tally of 79-89 seats. The JD(S) would get 24-34 seats.

Surveys by Vistara News and South First People’s Pulse show a fractured mandate. Vistara gave 88-93 seats to BJP, 84-90 to Congress, and 23-26 to JD(S).

The South First survey gave 98 seats to Congress in the 95-105 range, 92 seats to the BJP in the 90-100 range, and 27 seats to the JD(S) in the 25-30 range.

Notably, a party needs at least 113 seats in the assembly to get a clear majority in the 224-seat assembly.

JD(S) might once again play the role of a kingmaker in such a situation. Leaders from both the Congress and the BJP have attacked the party and urged voters not to vote for them.

The state has previously thrown up a hung verdict in 2004, 2008 and 2018. In 2018, the Congress was able to form the government with the support of JD(S), but the alliance did not complete its full term.

In all three instances, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party in the state but had to sit outside the government. It was then forced into a post-poll alliance with the JD(S), which later induced defections in the party.