The southwest monsoon, which made a weak onset, has been sluggish in Kerala, leading to a deficit in rainfall of over 60 per cent in most meteorological subdivisions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that there is no expected improvement in the weather models for the strengthening of the monsoon in the coming week.
Cyclone Biparjoy has affected the offshore trough from Gujarat to Kerala.
“The current weather models do not favour the strengthening of the monsoon at least for the next week. We hope once Cyclone Biparjoy completely dissipates after landfall, the synoptic conditions favouring the revival of monsoon will be on track,” a scientist with the IMD was quoted as saying by The Hindu.
The progress of the monsoon has been affected by the disturbance caused by Cyclone Biparjoy, resulting in inactivity of the offshore trough from Gujarat to Kerala.
This trough is one of the four semi-permanent systems during the monsoon season that assists in bringing rain to Kerala and other surrounding areas.
During the monsoon season, four semipermanent systems exist, and two are currently active - the Mascarene High and heat low over Northwestern India.
The Mascarene High is a high-pressure area off Madagascar's coast where the monsoon wind originates with the winds blowing anticlockwise.
The other two systems, the monsoon trough from Ganganagar to Sagar Island in Bay of Bengal, and the offshore trough from Gujarat to Kerala coast, aren't currently active due to Cyclone Biparjoy's disturbance.
The likely formation of the monsoon trough traversing Kerala to Gujarat coast by next week should help revive the monsoon, according to the IMD scientist.
The IMD has also predicted below normal rainfall in Kerala until 22 June. However, there may be some progress after 18 June.
Of the 14 districts in Kerala, eight were classified as 'highly deficient' in rainfall, meaning there was a shortfall of 60 to 99 percent.
In addition, five districts were deemed 'deficient' with a shortfall of 20 to 59 percent.
Only Pathanamthitta district had received normal rainfall until the current moment.
Kerala was expected to record normal rainfall of 280.5 mm rain in the first two weeks of June, while it received only 126 mm rain till 14 June, a shortfall of 55 per cent.
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