Morning Brief: Pakistan Spirals Into Paranoia As India Tightens The Screws; Europe Receives Another Scathing Rebuke From Jaishankar; India Cuts Water Flow In Chenab River; And More

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Pakistan Spirals Into Paranoia As India Tightens The Screws

With the mounting fear of Indian retribution following the April 22 terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam that left 26 civilians dead, Pakistan is in a state of visible panic.

One, on Sunday (4 May), Rawalpindi convened a high-level, late-night meeting to brief political leaders on the treat of an Indian attack, a session notably boycotted by Imran Khan’s PTI, which slammed it as a one-sided, hollow exercise lacking genuine consensus.

Two, in a clear escalation, Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia issued a nuclear threat, warning of a “full spectrum” response just days after Army Chief General Asim Munir said Pakistan would give a "notch-up response" to any action India might take.

Three, in parallel, Islamabad is now racing to internationalise the situation by moving the matter to the UN Security Council. Officials hope to portray India’s diplomatic and military steps — including the suspension of visas, expulsion of diplomats, and heightened border readiness — as acts of aggression.

Pakistan is expected to once again lean on Chinese support, just as it did when Beijing helped water down the initial UNSC statement on the Pahalgam attack.

Europe Receives Another Scathing Rebuke From Jaishankar

Europe has once again drawn India’s scathing rebuke, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar mocking the EU’s sanctimonious calls for restraint in India’s tensions with Pakistan as the preaching of hypocritical busybodies. Speaking at an event, he sneered at Europe’s struggle to shed its colonial-era habit of sermonising, urging them to trade their outdated moralising for practical partnership.

Jaishankar scoffed at the EU’s High Representative Kaja Kallas’ plea for de-escalation, implying Europe’s leaders are out of touch, pontificating abroad while ignoring their own contradictions at home. He ridiculed Europe’s slow awakening to a “zone of reality check,” questioning whether they’ll ever muster the spine to act like true partners.

India, Jaishankar said, has no patience for Europe’s sanctimonious posturing, preferring partners who walk the talk over preachers lost in their own delusions.

India Cuts Water Flow In Chenab River

India has cut water flow through the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River and is planning similar measures at the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum River, escalating tensions with Pakistan, a report in the ET says. These actions follow the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on 23 April 2025, after a terror attack in Pahalgam.

Pakistan had previously stated it would consider any move to stop or divert water as an “act of war,” with officials warning of potential military strikes on Indian water infrastructure. The Chenab and Jhelum rivers are critical for Pakistan’s agriculture, and such disruptions could cause severe food insecurity and economic instability.

Other Developments

SC To Decide On Interim Relief In Waqf Act Case

The Supreme Court (SC) is set to decide whether to issue an interim order on a batch of petitions challenging the Waqf Amendment Act, 2025. The petitioners argue that the amended law undermines the traditional and religious link between waqfs and Islam, and violates Article 26, which guarantees the freedom to manage religious affairs.

A three-judge bench led by Chief Justice Sanjiv Khanna, who is due to retire on 13 May, is racing against time to conduct a full hearing in the case, which is expected to be lengthy given the number of lawyers involved. To manage the proceedings, the court has shortlisted five lead cases from over 150 petitions.

NDA Allies Push For OBC, SC Sub-Categorisation

Following the Modi government’s announcement to include caste data in the upcoming census, several NDA allies from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have renewed their demand for sub-categorisation of OBCs and SCs to ensure fairer distribution of reservation benefits. Leaders like Upendra Khushwaha and Sanjay Nishad have urged the Centre to release the Rohini Commission report, which was submitted in 2023 and recommends sub-divisions within OBCs.

Some allies have also highlighted errors in caste categorisation and suggested the need to distinguish between communities that have already benefited from quotas and those that haven’t. While some NDA partners like Apna Dal (S) and LJP may be hesitant, the BJP has previously implemented similar quota-within-quota frameworks in states like Karnataka and Haryana.

Global Manufacturing Activity Contracts For First Time In 2025

Global manufacturing activity shrank in April for the first time in 2025, as weakening demand, falling orders, and employment cuts signalled growing economic uncertainty. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Index dropped to 49.8 from 50.3 in March, with any reading below 50 indicating contraction.

The future output index hit its lowest point since October 2022, having declined 4.5 points since Donald Trump’s election in November, while factory output prices rose to their highest level since March 2023. Although input costs remained steady in April, they were still significantly higher than in the past two years.

Meanwhile, new orders and export demand both saw sharp declines, prompting manufacturers to reduce staffing for a ninth consecutive month — the longest stretch of job cuts since the pandemic.

Trump Hints At Easing China Tariffs Amid Trade Standoff

US President Donald Trump has indicated a possible softening of his stance on China tariffs, saying he may lower them "at some point" to revive trade between the two countries. In an interview, Trump acknowledged that current tariffs—145 per cent on Chinese imports and 125 per cent retaliatory tariffs by China—have effectively stalled bilateral trade.

The steep levies have rattled financial markets and raised concerns about rising costs for US manufacturers and consumers. China is reportedly evaluating its position, and US stock markets responded positively to the potential shift. Speaking separately aboard Air Force One, Trump underlined the need for a “fair deal” and blamed China for years of trade imbalances, citing the country’s recent economic slowdown as leverage.

From The States

Karnataka Begins Door-To-Door SC Survey Today

A large-scale door-to-door survey to map the socio-economic and educational status of Scheduled Castes (SCs) in Karnataka begins today and will continue until 17 May, with around 60,000 trained enumerators using a custom mobile app to collect data. The initiative follows the 2015 caste census which estimated Karnataka's SC population at 1.09 crore, or 18.2 per cent of the state's population.

Enumerators will gather detailed information including caste, sub-caste, education, employment, and family details, with identity verification done using official documents like Aadhaar or voter IDs to prevent false entries. The process includes random checks by 6,000 supervisors and will be monitored via a central war room.

Nitish Kumar Reaffirms Loyalty To NDA Ahead Of State Polls

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Sunday (4 May) reaffirmed his commitment to the NDA, crediting the BJP and late Atal Bihari Vajpayee for his political rise. Speaking at the Khelo India Youth Games, Kumar said he would not switch alliances again, despite his history of shifting between the NDA and rival coalitions.

Over the past decade, he has alternated between alliances with the BJP and RJD, most recently rejoining the NDA after briefly aligning with the INDIA bloc. Kumar, who is seeking a fifth consecutive term, said that his past political moves were driven by party decisions but now intends to stay with the NDA permanently.

You’re all caught up—until next time.