Uttar Pradesh: SP Or BSP? Congress Leadership Divided Over Alliance Partner In 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The Congress party is divided over forming an alliance in Uttar Pradesh for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The two potential options for an alliance are either with the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

However, any decision regarding an alliance in Uttar Pradesh will likely be made after assessing the party's performance in the upcoming state assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram.

Although a tie-up with the Samajwadi Party is not ruled out, there seems to be a growing inclination within the Congress towards a possible alliance with the BSP.

Some Congress leaders feel that the party sought an alliance with the Samajwadi Party to appeal to the Muslim community, but this time around, Muslims appear to be favorably inclined towards the Congress.

Therefore, the party may keep both options open but with a leaning towards the BSP. The final decision will depend largely on the Congress' performance in the state assembly elections.

While some others believe that discussions need to be held between Congress leadership and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav before making any conclusions.

A few other leaders think that the BSP is under pressure from the BJP, reducing the likelihood of an alliance with the Congress. Meanwhile, former Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee president Nirmal Khatri stated that the Congress does not need an alliance with either the Samajwadi Party or the BSP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, questioning their secular credentials.

The current president of the UPCC, Brijlal Khabri, has consistently stated that the state party is preparing to contest all 80 Lok Sabha seats, and the party's leadership will have to decide on forming an alliance.

Most other party leaders are waiting for the results of the upcoming assembly elections in five states before discussing the issue of an alliance. A favorable outcome in at least three of the five states would give the Congress stronger bargaining power.

Analyzing recent Lok Sabha and assembly election results reveals a decline in the Congress' support base which emphasizes that the Congress needs an alliance partner to improve its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the party secured 6.25 per cent of the votes when it contested in alliance with the SP. When it contested alone, it significantly dropped to 2.33 per cent in the 2022 elections.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it contested in alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal and Mahan Dal and got a vote share of 7.53 per cent. This too dropped in the 2019 elections to 6.36 per cent when it contested alone.

Considering the interest of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, an alliance seems beneficial. However, the issue of leadership is a hurdle in forming a united front among opposition parties. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and BSP chief Mayawati may not be inclined to see the Congress in a leadership role.

Nevertheless, if the Congress achieves a performance similar to Karnataka in the upcoming assembly elections, it will be in a stronger position to negotiate. Therefore, the possibility of an alliance will likely arise after the state assembly election results are announced.