Why Do New Waves Happen? NITI Aayog Expert Explains; Underscores Measures To Prevent The Third Wave

Addressing the Union Health Ministry's media briefing on COVID-19 on Tuesday (22 June), Dr VK Paul, Member (Health) NITI Aayog, explained the reasons behind the emergence of new pandemic waves and how they can be controlled or even avoided by following COVID appropriate behaviours and taking measures such as vaccination.

"There are countries where even the second wave has not occurred. If we do what is required and do not indulge in irresponsible behaviour, then an outbreak should not occur. This is a simple epidemiological principle." Dr VK Paul said.

Dr Paul said four elements lead to the formation of a new wave, namely, behaviour of the virus, susceptible host, transmissibility, and opportunity.

The behaviour of the virus indicates its capacity and ability to spread. The susceptible host is another factor in forming a new wave as the virus keeps looking for susceptible hosts for it to survive. So, if we are not protected either via vaccination or by the previous infection, then we are an easy host.

The virus can become smart enough where it mutates and becomes more transmissible. The same virus which used to infect three hosts becomes capable of infecting 13! This factor is unpredictable. No one can pre-plan to fight such mutations. The change of the very nature of the virus and its transmissibility is an X factor, and no one can predict when and where it may happen.

Opportunity is another element among the four, and they are the opportunities that we give to the virus to infect. If we sit and eat together, crowd, sit in closed areas without masks, the virus gets more opportunities to spread.

"Out of the above four, two elements, susceptibility and opportunities for infection are totally under our control whereas the other two, behaviour of the virus and transmissibility, cannot be predicted or controlled. So, if we are protected and ensure we are not susceptible, then the virus will not be able to survive. We can control the susceptibility by wearing a mask or getting vaccinated. Hence if we decrease opportunities by following COVID Appropriate behaviour and decrease susceptibility to infection, then a third wave will not occur," NITI Aayog Member said.

Speaking about easing restrictions and reopening schools, Dr Paul said that the decision has to be taken cautiously and take risks only when we are protected.