Dibrugarh Lok Sabha Seat: Why Sarbananda Sonowal's Victory Is A Forgone Conclusion

Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, who has been fielded by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from the prestigious Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat in Upper Assam, is looking forward to a resounding victory over his rival — Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). 

That Sonowal will win is a foregone conclusion. But what has boosted his prospects immensely and set him on course for a huge victory is the ‘opportunistic alliance’ between the AJP and the Congress. 

A dive into history will be in order here.

The AJP was floated as a political party by two influential students and youth organisations of Assam — the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP). 

These two organisations had spearheaded the six-year-long Assam movement from 1979 against the presence of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh in the state. 

The AASU and AJYCP have, since the 1960s, taken the lead in defending the interests of the state and its indigenous people. Both have wide public acceptance and being very influential, have often shaped public and political discourse in the state. 

The two bodies have had a highly adversarial relationship with the Congress. That’s because Congress has ruled Assam for most of the first seven decades after independence when the state witnessed many agitations. 

While in power, the Congress used strong-arm tactics to suppress the movements, including the language movement of the 1960s and 1970s, the refinery movement (read this) of the 1950s and the anti-foreigners’ movement. Police firing and state repression resulted in 855 deaths during the anti-foreigners’ agitation alone. 

The AASU and AJYCP have always accused the Congress of being anti-Assam and anti-Assamese and of suppressing the genuine aspirations and demands of the indigenous people of the state. 

So much so that both the organisations had proclaimed the Congress to be their ‘prime enemy’ and an ‘enemy of the Assamese people’. 

The AASU and AJYCP were in the forefront of the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests that convulsed Assam in late 2019 and early 2020. 

The two organisations then jointly floated the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) as a political party in September 2020 in the runup to the 2021 assembly elections in the state. Former general secretary of the AASU, Lurinjyoti Gogoi, became the first president of the AJP. 

The primary campaign plank of the AJP, which contested the elections in alliance with Raijor Dal, another fledgling political party, was (opposition to) the CAA. But the alliance fared poorly with only Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi winning the Sivasagar Assembly seat in Upper Assam. The alliance got just 3.66 per cent votes. 

Lurinjyoti Gogoi contested from Duliajan and Naharkatia assembly segments (in 2021) and came a poor third after the BJP (which won both the seats) and the Congress. 

The AJP joined the Congress-led INDI Alliance to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections and was allotted the Dibrugarh seat. The AJP has fielded its president, Lurinjyoti Gogoi, from this seat. 

The tie-up with the Congress, feels the AJP, will lead to consolidation of anti-BJP votes in Gogoi’s favour. Gogoi was the poster boy of the anti-CAA movement in Assam a few years ago, and the Congress had also launched nationwide protests against the CAA.

And it is the association with the Congress, which the AASU-AJYCP combine has proclaimed as ‘enemy number 1’ of the Assamese people, that has become an albatross around Gogoi’s neck. Gogoi is being accused of compromising with the Congress in his hunger for power. 

“This (the AJP joining the Congress-led INDI Alliance) is shameful and unpardonable. It shows the depths that people can sink to in order to gain power. People will not forgive Gogoi for this,” Sarbananda Sonowal told Swarajya. 

Sonowal, like Gogoi, was in the AASU and had then joined the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), a political party that was formed by leaders of the students’ body immediately after the Assam movement. The AGP ruled Assam for two terms and is now an ally of the BJP.

Sonowal was a popular student leader and was conferred the ‘Jatiya Nayak’ honorific after he successfully moved the Supreme Court to strike down a law enacted after the 1985 Assam Accord that designated 1971 as the cut-off year for identifying illegal immigrants instead of 1951 as is applicable all over the country. 

“The Congress is responsible for the deaths of so many patriotic young men and women in Assam. Repressive Congress governments have devastated thousands of families and have always acted against the interests of Assam and Assamese people. Given this, it is a shame that Gogoi, who was in the AASU, has taken support of the Congress,” said Sonowal. 

The BJP has made this into a major issue in Dibrugarh. In all meetings, Sonowal and other BJP leaders make it a point to highlight the ‘immoral’ and ‘unprincipled’ act of the AJP joining hands with the Congress to improve its electoral prospects in Dibrugarh. 

The AJP-Congress tie-up has made many uncomfortable in Dibrugarh. AJP activists and supporters — members and former members of the AASU and AJYCP who have always been vocal critics of the Congress in the past — are finding it extremely uncomfortable to hold joint meetings and rallies with Congress workers they had despised till the other day. 

Many Congress workers are also keeping themselves away from Gogoi’s election campaign. After all, they had also been battling the AASU and AJYCP all these decades. 

“During and even after the Assam agitation, my entire family faced a social boycott called by the AASU. We have faced many hardships and had been targeted by the AASU all these decades. I cannot forget all that and forgive the AASU. I can never bring myself to support Lurinjyoti Gogoi,” Praneswar Saikia, the president of the Tingkhong block Congress, told Swarajya. 

 There are many like Saikia who have disassociated themselves from Gogoi’s campaign. And the Congress functionaries who are participating are asserting themselves, causing heartburn amongst AJP workers. 

This is evident from the Congress flags and banners which overshadow those of the AJP even in Gogoi’s campaign offices. The unease amongst AJP workers with this is amply evident. 

The BJP is rubbing it in. Sonowal and his party colleagues have been telling the electorate that Gogoi’s new leader is Rahul Gandhi. And they have been highlighting Rahul Gandhi’s many gaffes, evoking peals of laughter from the crowds. 

Many are also sceptical of Gogoi’s abilities.

“Lurinjyoti Gogoi is educated, but is no match for Sonowal who is an experienced and seasoned politician and a very good administrator with a proven track record in governance,” said Tapanjyoti Barua, a young businessman in Dibrugarh who was an AASU activist in his student days. 

The odds, thus, are stacked against Gogoi in his battle against Sonowal. That is why the BJP is anticipating a huge victory for its candidate by a margin of over five lakh votes.